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Methodology

How we pick results

We don’t hunt for bookmaker mistakes. The price already tells you who the favourite is. Our work starts there: find what the price can’t know yet, test the pick against the way the game will really go, and publish only the results we expect to happen.

One method, four sports

Football, tennis, hockey and basketball go through the same process every morning, from a scan of the day’s fixtures to a short list of picks. What changes from sport to sport is what decides the result:

Sport What decides most of our picks
Football Confirmed lineups, rotation around European weeks, what the result is worth in the table, and how each side copes against a low block.
Tennis The surface, fatigue from the previous rounds, serve against return, and the first tournament back after an injury.
Hockey The starting goalie, confirmed or expected, and the risk of a back-up in net. Then back-to-backs, travel and special teams.
Basketball The official injury report, rest and travel, home court, pace and shooting form.

Every match page shows the inputs behind the call: form with the numbers that matter in that sport, absences, rest, head-to-head and the scorelines we expect.

Four signals behind every pick

A single argument, however good it sounds, is not enough. Every pick is checked against four independent signals:

  1. The market. Where the price puts the favourite. It is our starting point, not our opponent: the odds summarise what thousands of people already know.
  2. A statistical model. Elo ratings in tennis, public prediction models in hockey and basketball, chance and form data in football.
  3. Named previews. What respected outlets predict, shown on every match page under What others predict, with a consensus badge and whether each source is on our side.
  4. Our scenario test. The likely scorelines, played out one by one (see below).

We publish a pick when at least three of the four point the same way and the team news does not argue with them. When they don’t, we say so on the page and take a smaller position or none.

Red flags change the market

Some facts make a favourite fragile even when everything else looks right: an away favourite without a clear edge, a back-up goalie, the second game of a back-to-back, a player on court for the third day running, two rotation players missing.

We don’t ignore them, and we don’t drop the match by reflex. We look for the market that still wins if the warning comes true: a handicap for the underdog, a double chance, a set for the outsider. If no such market makes sense, we publish the analysis without a bet.

From analysis to a pick

We look for the outcome that will happen, not for a price we think is wrong.

  1. The direction. Who is better today, with these players, in this place, with this much at stake.
  2. The scenarios. A narrow win, a comfortable win, a draw or overtime, an upset.
  3. The market that wins in the main scenarios. A straight win, double chance, a handicap or a total. If 1:0 is one of the main scenarios, a −1.5 handicap is out, however good the price looks. In hockey we always say whether a pick includes overtime or is settled after 60 minutes.
  4. Our probability. A range for the pick coming in, set after the scenarios, not before.

Every match page shows this as Why this pick wins: our probability, the odds we take, and the scorelines that win, refund or lose the pick.

Arguing against ourselves

Before publishing, every call is written up with two to four reasons we could be wrong. If they hold, we change the market or publish the analysis without a bet, and the reasons stay on the page for everyone to read.

The call

Call Meaning
Bet We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. Logged in the tracker with a stake.
Analysis Our full read of the match and the result we expect, without a stake. Big games we analyse for readers, and games where the bet is not clear enough.

Not every match needs a bet. A day with analysis only is part of the work, not a gap in it.

Singles and doubles

Each pick is analysed on its own; the bet page shows the total odds, the stake and why every leg was chosen, with a link to the full match analysis.

  • Football: often doubles of two picks we rate highly, plus singles.
  • Hockey and tennis: singles by default, because upsets are more frequent. A double only when both legs are strong favourites with no warning sign: first-choice goalies expected in hockey, no fatigue in tennis.
  • Basketball: singles, or doubles of home favourites.

We never mix sports in one bet, and the same match is never published twice with different calls.

Stakes

Stakes are in units: 1 unit = 1% of the starting bank. Each bet carries 2 to 3 units. Profit and loss are shown in units, so the tracker reads directly as the bank’s growth in percent.

Locked, logged, settled

  • Locked when published. The call, the odds and the time are fixed at publication. Later changes go into the update log on the page, never over the original. When we choose to wait for a lineup or a goalie, the pick is published only once it is confirmed, with the time.
  • Odds at publish: the average of popular bookmakers, UK and European, at that moment, never the best price. Each bet page says how many bookmakers and when.
  • Settled from the result, twice checked. Most bets are settled automatically within an hour of the end, from official league data or a major live-score service; every settlement is then checked against a second, independent source the next morning. Hockey picks after 60 minutes are settled on the regulation score.
  • The public tracker shows every bet with ROI, win rate, drawdown and how often our picks come in compared with what the odds expected.

How we keep improving

Every settled bet gets a written review the next morning: what worked, and was there a signal we missed? If we missed something, the rule changes and applies from the next pick. Every week we go through the tracker by sport, bet type, odds range, and home or away, and tighten whatever is not working. The record on this site is the result of that loop.

What we don’t do

  • No guarantees and no promises of profit. Sport is uncertain, and even a good pick can lose.
  • No in-play advice. Calls are fixed before the start.
  • No bookmaker pays for a call or decides what we publish.

This is analysis for information only. 18+. If betting stops being fun, see responsible gambling.

Last updated 8 October 2026