Marta Kostyuk needs a Ningbo final, or Muchova takes the last WTA Finals place

By the Data Desk · Published 21 OCT 05:35 · Updated 22 OCT 06:45

First reported by WTA · 20 OCT 15:29

One player in the world can still take the last WTA Finals place away from Karolina Muchova, and she plays her first match in Ningbo today. The WTA puts it in one line: "If Kostyuk does not reach the final, Muchova secures the last spot."

• The race after Wuhan: Muchova seventh on 4,735 points, Iga Swiatek ninth on 4,189, Marta Kostyuk tenth on 3,920 (WTA). Swiatek withdrew from Ningbo with a left thigh injury and ended her season, so Kostyuk is the only player whose results can still move the race.
• Kostyuk, the No. 3 seed, had a first-round bye. She needs three wins in a row to reach the final: Ekaterina Alexandrova today, then the winner of Leylah Fernandez v Aliaksandra Sasnovich, then a semi-final.
• Kostyuk v Alexandrova is the last match on Center Court, not before 19:00 local time, 11:00 UTC (WTA order of play). Muchova is not playing this week.

Swiatek explained her exit on the WTA site: "I've been experiencing an ongoing problem with my left thigh over the past weeks, and I feel that giving myself the time to rest and recover is the right decision." Later she wrote on Instagram: "I've decided to end my season here, which means I won't be playing any more tournaments this year." She finishes 2026 at 39-15 with one title, in Toronto, and the Ningbo draw sheet lists her and Maja Chwalinska, who beat her in the Wuhan semi-final, as withdrawals with the same left thigh injury.

That leaves the whole race on Kostyuk's side of the draw. Her opener is not a soft one. Alexandrova reached the Ningbo final last year, where she lost to Elena Rybakina, and match previews put their head-to-head at 2-1 in Alexandrova's favour; Kostyuk won the most recent meeting, at the US Open, in straight sets. Alexandrova reached the last 16 with a 6-2, 6-3 win over wildcard Hanyu Guo.

Muchova booked her points in Wuhan, where Diana Shnaider beat her 7-5, 6-3 in the third round. Since then she has been waiting. The players already in are Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Elina Svitolina and Linda Noskova.

What happens next: today's match, then a quarter-final against Fernandez or Sasnovich, who play second on Center Court. The tournament ends on Sunday 25 October and the WTA Finals start at Indian Wells on 8 November. What a Kostyuk final or title would mean in points depends on the race table and her schedule after Ningbo, and we will not guess it: if she gets that far, we will update this story with the WTA's own sums.