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Single · No. 74 · 13 OCTWon

Boulter vs Shnaider

  1. 01Katie Boulter vs Diana ShnaiderDiana Shnaider win1.24 · Won
Total odds
1.24
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.24 units
Our estimate
74–77%
Published 12 OCT 18:45
Odds: average of 32 popular bookmakers, 12 OCT 18:2418+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Diana Shnaider to beat Katie Boulter in the Wuhan Open first round: the No. 11 seed is 18-12 on hard courts this season and won both their meetings, while Boulter has won three of her last ten matches.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · 13 OCT · 04:00 UK

Katie Boulter vs Diana Shnaider

Diana Shnaider win1.24Won
Why this pickShnaider holds serve in 71.5% of her games this season to Boulter’s 65.8%, and Boulter serves 5.7 double faults a match. Shnaider beat her 6:1, 6:2 in the 2024 Hong Kong final. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
0:2
Our estimate
74–77%

Form · Boulter has won 3 of her last 10 matches; Shnaider lost 2 of her last 5, both as the favourite

Katie BoulterLast 10: 3-7
  1. Lost to Grant T. 6-4, 6-2
  2. Lost to Krueger A. 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
  3. Lost to Cross K. 7-6(3), 7-5
  4. Won v Volynets K. 7-5, 0-6, 6-4
  5. Lost to Noskova L. 6-3, 6-3
  6. Won v Lee C. 6-4, 3-6, 6-0
  7. Lost to Muchova K. 6-1, 6-0
  8. Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 7-6(3)
  9. Won v Hontama M. 6-3, 6-4
  10. Lost to Muchova K. 7-6(3), 6-1
Diana ShnaiderLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Pegula J. 6-3, 6-3
  2. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-2, 6-1
  3. Won v Maria T. 6-2, 7-5
  4. Won v Chwalinska M. 6-2, 7-6(3)
  5. Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 6-4
  6. Won v Snigur D. 6-0, 6-4
  7. Won v Pliskova K. 6-1, 7-6(4)
  8. Lost to Townsend T. 6-2, 6(3)-7, 6-3
  9. Won v Tjen J. 6-0, 6-4
  10. Lost to Alexandrova E. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3

Stats comparison

StatBoulterShnaider
On hard courts14-1118-12
Last 10 matches3-76-4
Service games held65.8%71.5%
Return games won34.9%36.1%

Our scenario

3:6, 4:6 0:2 in sets

Shnaider in two sets. Shnaider holds serve in 71.5% of her games this season and Boulter in 65.8%. Boulter wins only 42.2% of her second-serve points and serves 5.7 double faults a match, so Shnaider should find a break in each set. We expect 6:3, 6:4; a 2:1 Shnaider win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Shnaider has lost two of her last five matches as the favourite, to Alexandrova in Beijing and Townsend at the US Open, both in three sets.
  2. 02Boulter has won her opening match at each of her last three tournaments.
  3. 03Boulter wins more first-serve points this season (66.8% against 63.9%).
Shnaider’s autumnIn Beijing she beat Janice Tjen 6:0, 6:4 and lost to Ekaterina Alexandrova 6:3, 4:6, 3:6 in the third round on 4 October. At the US Open she beat Daria Snigur and Karolina Pliskova, then lost to Taylor Townsend in three sets. She reached the Roland Garros semi-finals this year.
Full match analysis