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Single · No. 75 · 13 OCTWon

Tagger vs Bartunkova

  1. 01Lilli Tagger vs Nikola BartunkovaNikola Bartunkova win1.38 · Won
Total odds
1.38
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.38 units
Our estimate
67–70%
Published 12 OCT 18:45
Odds: average of 32 popular bookmakers, 12 OCT 18:2418+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Nikola Bartunkova to beat Lilli Tagger in the Wuhan Open first round: a week ago she beat Sabalenka and Muchova on her way to the Beijing semi-finals, and Tagger has lost four of her last five.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · 13 OCT · 04:00 UK

Lilli Tagger vs Nikola Bartunkova

Nikola Bartunkova win1.38Won
Why this pickBartunkova wins 34.3% of her return games this season to Tagger’s 29.7%, and she is 25-12 on hard courts. Tagger has not played for 13 days. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
0:2
Our estimate
67–70%

Form · Bartunkova beat Sabalenka and Muchova in Beijing; Tagger has lost 4 of her last 5

Lilli TaggerLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Bejlek S. 6-3, 6-4
  2. Won v Krejcikova B. 6(5)-7, 6-3, 7-6(4)
  3. Won v Snigur D. 7-6(3), 6-2
  4. Won v Zhu L. 3-6, 6-1, 6-1
  5. Won v Montgomery R. 6-3, 6-1
  6. Lost to Gibson T. 4-6, 6-1, 7-5
  7. Lost to Starodubtseva Y. 6-3, 6-4
  8. Won v Korpatsch T. 6-0, 7-6(4)
  9. Lost to Anisimova A. 6-3, 3-6, 6-1
  10. Lost to Ruse E. 6-4, 6-2
Nikola BartunkovaLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Vidmanova D. 6-4, 6(3)-7, 6-3
  2. Lost to Mertens E. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
  3. Won v Sherif M. 6-1, 6-2
  4. Won v Maria T. 6(5)-7, 6-2, 6-3
  5. Lost to Andreeva M. 6-2, 7-6(5)
  6. Won v Frech M. 6-2, 6-2
  7. Won v Sabalenka A. 6-4, 6-3
  8. Won v Kraus S. 6-0, 4-6, 6-3
  9. Won v Muchova K. 6-3, 6-0
  10. Lost to Andreeva M. 6-2, 6-2

Stats comparison

StatTaggerBartunkova
On hard courts24-1025-12
Last 10 matches6-47-3
Service games held69.1%70.7%
Return games won29.7%34.3%

Our scenario

4:6, 3:6 0:2 in sets

Bartunkova in two sets. Both hold serve at a similar rate this season (70.7% Bartunkova, 69.1% Tagger), but Bartunkova breaks more often (34.3% of return games against 29.7%). After a Beijing week in which she took 12 of 15 games from Muchova, we expect her to set the pace: 6:4, 6:3. A 2:1 Bartunkova win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Bartunkova played five matches and 11 sets in 14 days; a dip after the best week of her career is possible.
  2. 02Tagger is 24-10 on hard courts this season and won the Prague title in July, beating Barbora Krejcikova on the way.
  3. 03Bartunkova puts only 52.0% of first serves in this season; Tagger 65.9%.
Bartunkova’s Beijing runShe beat Magdalena Frech 6:2, 6:2, Aryna Sabalenka 6:4, 6:3, Sinja Kraus 6:0, 4:6, 6:3 and Karolina Muchova 6:3, 6:0, then lost the semi-final to Mirra Andreeva 2:6, 2:6 on 10 October. At the US Open she reached the third round.
Full match analysis