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Single · No. 98 · 16 OCTLost

Shnaider vs Ostapenko

  1. 01Diana Shnaider vs Jelena OstapenkoDiana Shnaider win1.39 · Lost
Total odds
1.39
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
67–70%
Published 15 OCT 18:50
Odds: average of 33 popular bookmakers, 15 OCT 18:3918+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Diana Shnaider to beat Jelena Ostapenko in the Wuhan Open quarter-finals: Shnaider has won all six sets she has played this week, including against the sixth seed Karolina Muchova, while Ostapenko comes in after two three-set matches on consecutive days and a doubles quarter-final on the same day.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · 16 OCT · 04:00 UK

Diana Shnaider vs Jelena Ostapenko

Diana Shnaider win1.39Lost
Why this pickShnaider is 28-8 as a favourite this season and holds 71.5% of her service games, against 64.6% for Ostapenko, who also averages 6.4 double faults a match to Shnaider’s 3.2. Ostapenko beat Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez in three sets on Wednesday and Thursday. All three models and previews we checked back Shnaider. We expect 6:4, 6:3; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
67–70%

Form · Shnaider has won six sets out of six in Wuhan; Ostapenko has played two three-setters in two days

Diana ShnaiderLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Chwalinska M. 6-2, 7-6(3)
  2. Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 6-4
  3. Won v Snigur D. 6-0, 6-4
  4. Won v Pliskova K. 6-1, 7-6(4)
  5. Lost to Townsend T. 6-2, 6(3)-7, 6-3
  6. Won v Tjen J. 6-0, 6-4
  7. Lost to Alexandrova E. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
  8. Won v Boulter K. 6-3, 6-1
  9. Won v Putintseva Y. 6-2, 6-2
  10. Won v Muchova K. 7-5, 6-3
Jelena OstapenkoLast 10: 5-5
  1. Lost to Zhang S. 6-0, 4-0 ret.
  2. Lost to Frech M. 6-1, 6-3
  3. Lost to Maria T. 4-6, 6-1, 6-2
  4. Won v Zakharova A. 6-4, 6-1
  5. Lost to Preston T. 6-4, 6-1
  6. Won v Badosa P. 7-6(5), 7-5
  7. Lost to Mertens E. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
  8. Won v Kasatkina D. 6-1, 6-1
  9. Won v Pegula J. 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-3
  10. Won v Fernandez L. 6-1, 1-6, 6-4

Stats comparison

StatShnaiderOstapenko
On hard courts20-1213-13
Last 10 matches7-34-6
Service games held71.5%64.6%
Return games won36.1%38.1%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Shnaider in two sets. Shnaider puts more first serves in (65.9% against 56.7%) and wins more points behind her second serve (48.7% against 41.6%). Ostapenko can hit anyone off the court for a set, so the first set matters. We expect 6:4, 6:3. A 2:1 Shnaider win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Ostapenko has won three of her last ten matches as the underdog, including against Jessica Pegula this week.
  2. 02Shnaider lost two of her last ten matches as the favourite, to Ekaterina Alexandrova in Beijing and Taylor Townsend at the US Open.
  3. 03Ostapenko wins slightly more return games this season (38.1% against 36.1%).
Shnaider this weekShe beat Katie Boulter 6:3, 6:1, Yulia Putintseva 6:2, 6:2 and Karolina Muchova, the sixth seed, 7:5, 6:3 on Thursday. It was the fourth top-10 win of her career.
Full match analysis