Single: Munar vs Cina — odds 1.30

Why this betA single on Jaume Munar to beat the qualifier Federico Cina in the first round of the European Open in Brussels. Munar, ranked 49, beat Taylor Fritz in Tokyo two weeks ago on his way to the semi-finals and is 18-5 as a favourite this season. Cina, ranked 147, played five sets in two days of qualifying, finishing with two tie-breaks against Remy Bertola yesterday.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · European Open, Brussels · 19 OCT · 11:00 UK

Jaume Munar vs Federico Cina

Jaume Munar win1.30Won

Why this pickOver their last ten tour matches with stats Munar won 33.6% of his return games and held 80% of his serves; Cina broke in 20.2% and held 72.5%. Munar arrives after eleven days of rest, Cina after two days on court. Dimers gives Munar 72.8%, and Tennis Tonic, Last Word On Tennis, SportsGambler and The Stats Zone all pick him. The risk: Munar has lost his last two matches, and we could not find his indoor record. We expect 6:4, 6:3; a win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 71–73%

Form · Munar beat Fritz and took a set off Alcaraz in Tokyo; Cina won two qualifying rounds in Brussels

Jaume MunarLast 10: 7-3

Won v Bueno G.
Won v Brancaccio R. 2-6, 6-1, 6-1
Lost to Diaz Acosta F. 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1)
Won v Giron M. 5-7, 6-1, 6-4
Won v Kovacevic A. 6-2, 6-3
Won v Fritz T. 6(7)-7, 6-4, 6-3
Won v Faria J. 6-1, 6-1
Won v Jacquet K. 6-4, 6-2
Lost to Alcaraz C. 5-7, 6-3, 6-1
Lost to Brooksby J. 7-5, 6-4

Federico CinaLast 10: 7-3

Won v Ugo Carabelli C. 6-3, 6-2
Lost to Muller A. 7-6(3), 6-1
Won v McCabe J. 6-2, 6-3
Won v Ymer E. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Erel Y. 7-5, 7-6(3)
Won v Xiao L. 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
Won v Dougaz A. 6-3, 4-6, 6-4
Lost to Molcan A. 4-6, 6-1, 6-2
Won v Schwaerzler J. 6-3, 7-6(4)
Won v Bertola R. 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(4)

Stats comparison

Stat	Munar	Cina
On hard courts	12-9	21-12
Last 10 matches	7-3	7-3
Service games held	80.0%	72.5%
Return games won	33.6%	20.2%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Munar in two sets. Over their last ten tour matches with stats Munar held 80% of his service games and broke in 33.6% of return games; Cina held 72.5% and broke in 20.2%. Munar is the steadier player from the baseline, and Cina comes in after two long days. We expect 6:4, 6:3. If Cina’s serve holds up indoors and he takes a tie-break, a 2:1 Munar win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01Munar is a clay-court player at heart, and we could not find his indoor record.
02He has lost his last two matches, the second one to Jenson Brooksby in Shanghai as the favourite.
03Cina has already played two matches on this court and with these balls this week.

Munar this autumnIn Tokyo he won two qualifying rounds, then beat Taylor Fritz 6:7, 6:4, 6:3, Joao Faria 6:1, 6:1 and Kyrian Jacquet 6:4, 6:2 before losing the semi-final to Carlos Alcaraz 7:5, 3:6, 1:6. In Shanghai he lost his first match to Jenson Brooksby 5:7, 4:6.

Full match analysis