Single: Herbert vs Fritz — odds 1.53

Why this betA single on Pierre-Hugues Herbert +4.5 games against Taylor Fritz in the second round of the Lyon Open. Fritz is the second seed and ranked 14, but he has lost four of his last five matches and has not played since 12 October. Herbert, a 35-year-old qualifier, has won three matches in a row on this court. We expect a tight match on serve, not a rout.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · 22 OCT · 14:30 UK

Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Taylor Fritz

Pierre-Hugues Herbert +4.5 games1.53

Why this pickFritz held 86.7% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Herbert 82.5% over his last ten matches, and Herbert won more return games, 26.2% to 22.9%. Fritz has lost four of his last five, to Munar in Tokyo and Tsitsipas in Shanghai as the favourite, and has not played for ten days; Herbert won three matches here in three days and was not broken against Baez. The bet wins with any Herbert set, any three-set Fritz win and a straight-sets Fritz win by up to four games, such as our main score 7:6, 6:4; it loses on 6:4, 6:3 Fritz or wider. The risk: Fritz's serve, 12 aces a match, and Herbert's five double faults a match.

Predicted score: 0:2
Our estimate: 61–63%

Form · Fritz has lost four of his last five; Herbert has won three in a row in Lyon, qualifying included

Pierre-Hugues HerbertLast 10: 5-5

Lost to Kopp S. 6-4, 6-4
Won v Miyoshi K. 6-2, 4-6, 6-2
Lost to Vandecasteele Q. 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-5
Lost to Sonego L. 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3
Lost to Gueymard Wayenburg S. 6-4, 7-5
Won v Gombos N. 6-3, 6-2
Lost to Gaston H. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won v Rodionov J. 6(5)-7, 7-5, 6-0
Won v Mrva M. 4-6, 6-3, 6-1
Won v Baez S. 6-3, 6-4

Taylor FritzLast 10: 5-5

Won v Merida Aguilar D. 6-3, 6-4
Won v O'Connell C. 6-4, 6-3
Lost to Nakashima B. 7-6(9), 4-6, 6-3
Won v Blanch D. 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
Won v Bellucci M. 6-0, 6-1, 6-1
Lost to Cerundolo F. 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Alcaraz C. 6-3, 4-6, 13-11
Lost to Munar J. 6(7)-7, 6-4, 6-3
Won v Arnaldi M. 7-5, 6-4
Lost to Tsitsipas S. 3-6, 7-5, 6-3

Stats comparison

Stat	Herbert	Fritz
On hard courts	14-10	23-14
Last 10 matches	5-5	5-5
Service games held	82.5%	86.7%
Return games won	26.2%	22.9%

Our scenario

6:7, 4:6 0:2 in sets

Fritz in two tight sets. Fritz held 86.7% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats and hit 12.0 aces a match; Herbert held 82.5% and won 26.2% of his return games, more than Fritz's 22.9%. On a fast indoor court we expect few breaks: our main score is 7:6, 6:4 Fritz, a three-game margin, and the bet wins. Any Herbert set wins it too, as does a three-set Fritz win. The bet loses if Fritz breaks twice without reply, 6:4, 6:3 or wider.

Arguing against ourselves

01Fritz holds 86.7% of his service games and hits 12 aces a match; on a fast indoor court he can close sets 6:4, 6:3.
02Herbert is 35, played three matches in three days up to Tuesday and averages five double faults a match, which can hand over an early break.
03Our fresh Elo gives Fritz 85.8%, and Last Word On Sports expects him to win in two sets.

Fritz this autumnHe lost to Carlos Alcaraz at the Laver Cup, then to Jaume Munar 7:6(7), 4:6, 3:6 in the first round in Tokyo as a 1.29 favourite. In Shanghai he beat Matteo Arnaldi 7:5, 6:4 and lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas 6:3, 5:7, 3:6 in the third round on 12 October. Before that he lost to Francisco Cerundolo in five sets at the US Open. He had a first-round bye here.

Full match analysis