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Single · No. 139 · 22 OCTPending

Thunder vs Nuggets

  1. 01Thunder vs NuggetsThunder win1.29
Total odds
1.29
Stake
1.00 unit
Our estimate
72–76%
Published 22 OCT 09:20
Odds: average of 34 popular bookmakers, 22 OCT 09:3818+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NBA single on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home to the Denver Nuggets. The champions were 64-18 last season and opened this one with a 116:104 win in San Antonio; Denver play their first game. The line, ESPN's BPI and our card agree on a Thunder win at 70 to 76%.
Leg 1 · Basketball · USA · NBA · 23 OCT · 02:30 UK

Thunder vs Nuggets

Thunder win1.29
Why this pickThe line gives the Thunder 72.4% with the margin removed, ESPN's BPI, the model that rates this season's rosters, 75.4%, and our card 70%, with no flag against them. Oklahoma City won 116:104 in San Antonio in their opener; Denver play their first game of the season. We expect 120:110.
Predicted score · alt 114:110
120:110
Our estimate · Oklahoma City win
72–76%

Form · Oklahoma City 1-0 in their last 1. Denver 0-0.

Oklahoma City1-0
  • Winvs San Antonio116:104
Denver0-0

    Lineups · Expected

    • Oklahoma City
    • OutOtega OwehRight Achilles tendon surgery
    • OutThomas SorberRight knee surgery
    • OutNikola TopicLower back surgery
    • Denver
    • OutJulian StrawtherLeft knee sprain
    • QuestionableSpencer JonesHamstring injury management (both legs)

    What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1

    Our positionWe agree on the winner. The line has Oklahoma City at 72.4% with the margin removed, the BPI at 75.4% and our card, built on last season, at 70%: three estimates within five points of each other. The handicap of 7.5 points sits right on the expected margin, so −7.5 is close to even; we expect the Thunder to clear it, 120:110. We found no written preview with a pick.

    Scenario & score

    Pressure on the perimeter and Gilgeous-Alexander at 30. 120:110 to Oklahoma City is our main score: their perimeter pressure takes Murray out of rhythm, Gilgeous-Alexander scores 30 or more, and the Thunder win by eight to twelve in their home opener. 114:110 to Oklahoma City is the alternative: Jokic keeps Denver in it and the Thunder win, but by less than eight. Denver's way to win is a Jokic triple-double in their first game. Any Thunder win takes the bet, overtime included; the eight-to-twelve margin is our main scenario, not a condition.

    Arguing against ourselves

    1. 01Denver are a strong side, 54-28 last season, and Jokic can win a game on his own.
    2. 02A first game of the season is the hardest one to read: Denver have no form we can use.
    3. 03Even in our main picture the margin is close to the line: one late run decides −7.5.
    4. 04The only outside view we found is ESPN's BPI.
    Key factOklahoma City are 1-0: they won 116:104 at San Antonio on Tuesday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on 32 points in 36 minutes, Jared McCain 20 and Chet Holmgren 14. Denver have not played a game that counts yet. Last season the Thunder were the best team in the West, 64-18 with a point difference of +11.1 a game and 34-7 at home; the Nuggets were third, 54-28 and +5.2, with the better attack of the two at 122.1 points a game.
    Full match analysis