Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · ATP 250 · First round · Indoor hard
Nikoloz BasilashvilivsMarin Cilic prediction · Almaty Open 2026
Date
19 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Start time from ESPN; official order of play not checked, not before 14:30 local (10:30 UK)
Status
6:2 7:5
Analysis onlyBAS10:30 UKCILAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Basilashvili vs Cilic?
Nikoloz Basilashvili plays Marin Cilic in the first round of the Almaty Open on Monday. Our pick: Basilashvili in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 55–58%
- Our pick
- Nikoloz Basilashvili win
- Odds at publish
- 1.63
- Set by set
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 10:30
Basilashvili vs Cilic at a glance
| Match | Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Marin Cilic |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · First round |
| Surface | Indoor hard |
| Start | 19 OCT · 10:30 UK · 14:30 local |
| Court | Center Court · Start time from ESPN; official order of play not checked |
| Our pick | Nikoloz Basilashvili win · 1.63 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 55–58% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 6:7, 6:3) |
| Main reason | In Chengdu he came through qualifying and reached the semi-finals, beating Miomir Kecmanovic, Botic van de Zandschulp and Jenson Brooksby, then lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. |
No. 02 · Form
Basilashvili vs Cilic: recent form
Basilashvili has won eight of his last ten; Cilic has lost seven of his last ten
Nikoloz BasilashviliLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Cina F. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Kecmanovic M. 7-6(3), 6-4
- Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Brooksby J. 6-4, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Davidovich Fokina A. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Ilagan A. 6-3, 6(1)-7, 7-5
- Won v Draxl L. 5-7, 7-5, 6-4
- Lost to Mannarino A. 6-3, 2-2 ret.
- Won v Daniel T. 6-2, 7-5
- Won v Walton A. 6-4, 7-6(4)
Marin CilicLast 10: 3-7
- Won v Borges N. 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-3
- Lost to Medvedev D. 6-2, 3-6, 6-1
- Lost to Humbert U. 7-5, 6-3
- Lost to Medvedev D. 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
- Won v Shimabukuro S. 7-6(2), 6-1
- Lost to Tiafoe F. 5-7, 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Merida Aguilar D. 3-6, 6-1, 6-1
- Lost to Fery A. 7-6(2), 6-1
- Won v Walton A. 6-3, 3-6, 6-1
- Lost to Watanuki Y. 7-5, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Walton A.Almaty · 18.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(4) |
| Won v | Daniel T.Almaty · 17.10.26 | 6-2, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Mannarino A.Shanghai · 07.10.26 | 6-3, 2-2 ret. |
| Won v | Draxl L.Shanghai · 06.10.26 | 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 |
| Won v | Ilagan A.Shanghai · 05.10.26 | 6-3, 6(1)-7, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Davidovich Fokina A.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Brooksby J.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(4) |
| Won v | Van De Zandschulp B.Chengdu · 25.09.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Won v | Kecmanovic M.Chengdu · 24.09.26 | 7-6(3), 6-4 |
| Won v | Cina F.Chengdu · 23.09.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Watanuki Y.Jinan challenger · 15.10.26 | 7-5, 6-4 |
| Won v | Walton A.Jinan challenger · 13.10.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Fery A.Shanghai · 07.10.26 | 7-6(2), 6-1 |
| Lost to | Merida Aguilar D.Cincinnati · 15.08.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Tiafoe F.Montreal · 05.08.26 | 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Shimabukuro S.Montreal · 04.08.26 | 7-6(2), 6-1 |
| Lost to | Medvedev D.Wimbledon · 29.06.26 | 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Humbert U.Queen's Club · 16.06.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Medvedev D.Hertogenbosch · 13.06.26 | 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Borges N.Hertogenbosch · 12.06.26 | 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-3 |
Basilashvili this autumnIn Chengdu he came through qualifying and reached the semi-finals, beating Miomir Kecmanovic, Botic van de Zandschulp and Jenson Brooksby, then lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. In Shanghai he qualified and retired against Adrian Mannarino at 3:6, 2:2.
No. 03 · Context
A qualifier in form against the 2014 US Open champion in the first round in Almaty
- Basilashvili in Almaty
- He qualified with two straight-set wins: Taro Daniel 6:2, 7:5 on Saturday and Adam Walton 6:4, 7:6(4) on Sunday.
- Cilic since the summer
- Since 12 June he has won three matches. In October he lost to Arthur Fery 6:7(2), 1:6 in Shanghai, then beat Adam Walton and lost to Yosuke Watanuki 5:7, 4:6 at a Challenger in Jinan.
- Season and surface
- Basilashvili is 32-32 this season and 15-15 on hard courts. Cilic is 15-19 and 10-11 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Cilic won both meetings in straight sets: Stuttgart 2021 on grass, 6:3, 6:2, and Shanghai 2025 on a hard court, 6:3, 7:6(5). They have not met indoors.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Basilashvili held 87.3% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Cilic 72.3%
| Stat | Basilashvili | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 32-32 (better) | 15-19 |
| On hard courts | 15-15 (better) | 10-11 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 3-7 |
| As favourite | 13-13 | 10-5 (better) |
| As underdog | 16-17 (better) | 5-13 |
| Stat | Basilashvili | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (7-3) | 10 (3-7) |
| Aces per match | 8.1 (better) | 7.7 |
| Double faults per match | 2.8 | 2.6 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 56.9% | 60.4% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 75.4% (better) | 72.6% |
| 2nd serve points won | 57.0% (better) | 44.1% |
| Service games held | 87.3% (better) | 72.3% |
| Break points saved | 63.4% (better) | 49.2% |
| Stat | Basilashvili | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 38.6% (better) | 32.2% |
| Return games won | 21.6% (better) | 12.8% |
| Break points converted | 34.2% | 40.5% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 18 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats: Nikoloz Basilashvili 13.08.2026–07.10.2026, Marin Cilic 08.06.2026–12.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head2 meetings
Cilic leads 2-0
| 2025 | CilicShanghai Masters · Hard · R128 | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2021 | CilicStuttgart · Grass · R16 | 6-3 6-2 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Basilashvili vs Cilic?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Basilashvili, 54% | Same side |
| Scores24 | Basilashvili to win | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Cilic, 70.9% | Other side |
Our position2 of 3 back Basilashvili. We are on Basilashvili’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Basilashvili vs Cilic predicted score
Basilashvili in three sets
Over his last ten tour matches with stats Basilashvili held 87.3% of his service games and won 57% of his second-serve points; Cilic held 72.3% and won 44.1% behind his second serve. Cilic still serves 7.7 aces a match and can take a set on a tie-break. We expect 6:4, 6:7, 6:3. A Cilic win is a real outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:3
- Alternative
- 1:2
- 6:7, 6:4, 4:6
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Basilashvili vs Cilic pick: Nikoloz Basilashvili win
Basilashvili to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Both results are real here: Cilic leads their head to head 2-0 and the Elo ratings side with him. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick55–58%
Our pickNikoloz Basilashvili win
Odds1.63
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:32:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:7, 6:4, 4:61:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any sign that Basilashvili is carrying a physical problem; then we would expect Cilic.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Cilic leads the head to head 2-0 and has not dropped a set against Basilashvili.
- Elo ratings put Cilic ahead: our fresh calculation gives him 66.9%.
- Basilashvili is 32-32 this season and retired in Shanghai two weeks ago.