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Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · ATP 250 · Second round · Indoor hard

Daniil MedvedevvsSho Shimabukuro prediction · Almaty Open 2026

Date
22 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Third match on court, after Machac v Khachanov (not before 1:00 PM), not before 11:30 local (07:30 UK)
Status
6:2 6:1
Analysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Medvedev vs Shimabukuro?

Daniil Medvedev, the top seed, plays Sho Shimabukuro in the second round of the Almaty Open on Thursday, the third match on Center Court. Our pick: Medvedev in two sets, by five games or more, most likely 6:3, 6:3.

Predicted score
2:0
Our pick
60–64%
Why analysis only18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Daniil Medvedev −4.5 games
Odds at publish
1.51
Set by set
6:3, 6:3
Not before (UK)
07:30

Medvedev vs Shimabukuro at a glance

MatchDaniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro
TournamentATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · Second round
SurfaceIndoor hard
Start22 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local
CourtCenter Court · Third match on court, after Machac v Khachanov (not before 1:00 PM)
Our pickDaniil Medvedev −4.5 games · 1.51 · analysis only
Our estimate60–64%
Predicted score2:0 (6:3, 6:3)
Main reasonHe won the Hangzhou title on 29 September, beating Andrey Rublev 7:5, 6:4 in the final.
No. 02 · Form

Medvedev vs Shimabukuro: recent form

Medvedev has won eight of his last ten, with the Hangzhou title; Shimabukuro lost three of his four tour matches before Almaty

Daniil MedvedevLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Rublev A. 7-5, 6-4
  2. Won v Carreno-Busta P. 6-4, 6-2
  3. Won v Struff J. 6-4, 6-3
  4. Won v Cerundolo F. 7-6(4), 6-3
  5. Lost to Djokovic N. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
  6. Won v Struff J. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
  7. Won v Svrcina D. 6-2, 6-3
  8. Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-4, 7-5
  9. Won v Paul T. 6-3, 1-6, 6-3
  10. Lost to Jodar R. 6-3, 6-4
Sho ShimabukuroLast 10: 3-7
  1. Lost to Wolf J. 6-3, 3-6, 7-5
  2. Lost to Hurkacz H. 6-2, 6-4
  3. Lost to Kecmanovic M. 6-4, 6-3
  4. Lost to Rinderknech A. 6(4)-7, 6-2, 7-6(4), 6-2
  5. Won v Watt J. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
  6. Won v Shepp A. 6-3, 6-3
  7. Lost to Gaston H. 6-4, 6-4
  8. Lost to Shapovalov D. 7-5, 6-1
  9. Lost to Kecmanovic M. 6-2, 6-4
  10. Won v Safiullin R. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-4

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Daniil Medvedev
Lost toJodar R.Shanghai · 17.10.266-3, 6-4
Won vPaul T.Shanghai · 16.10.266-3, 1-6, 6-3
Won vTsitsipas S.Shanghai · 14.10.266-4, 7-5
Won vSvrcina D.Shanghai · 12.10.266-2, 6-3
Won vStruff J.Shanghai · 10.10.264-6, 6-4, 6-3
Lost toDjokovic N.Beijing · 05.10.267-5, 5-3 ret.
Won vCerundolo F.Beijing · 04.10.267-6(4), 6-3
Won vStruff J.Beijing · 03.10.266-4, 6-3
Won vCarreno-Busta P.Beijing · 02.10.266-4, 6-2
Won vRublev A.Hangzhou · 29.09.267-5, 6-4
Sho Shimabukuro
Won vSafiullin R.Almaty · 20.10.266(4)-7, 6-4, 6-4
Lost toKecmanovic M.Shanghai · 07.10.266-2, 6-4
Lost toShapovalov D.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.267-5, 6-1
Lost toGaston H.Hangzhou · 24.09.266-4, 6-4
Won vShepp A.Davis Cup · 20.09.266-3, 6-3
Won vWatt J.Davis Cup · 19.09.263-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost toRinderknech A.US Open · 30.08.266(4)-7, 6-2, 7-6(4), 6-2
Lost toKecmanovic M.Winston Salem · 23.08.266-4, 6-3
Lost toHurkacz H.Cincinnati · 14.08.266-2, 6-4
Lost toWolf J.Cincinnati · 13.08.266-3, 3-6, 7-5
Medvedev this autumnHe won the Hangzhou title on 29 September, beating Andrey Rublev 7:5, 6:4 in the final. In Beijing he reached the semi-final and retired against Novak Djokovic at 5:7, 3:5 on 5 October. In Shanghai he beat Jan-Lennard Struff, Dalibor Svrcina, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul, then lost to Rafael Jodar 3:6, 4:6 in the semi-final on 17 October.
No. 03 · Context

The top seed opens his Almaty Open against the world number 109 on Center Court

Shimabukuro this autumn
He beat Roman Safiullin 6:7(4), 6:4, 6:4 in the first round here on Tuesday as the clear underdog. Before Almaty he lost three tour matches in a row in straight sets: to Hugo Gaston in Hangzhou, Denis Shapovalov in Tokyo and Miomir Kecmanovic in Shanghai.
Season and surface
Medvedev is 47-18 this season, 35-11 on hard courts and 46-16 as a favourite. Shimabukuro is 31-28 and 22-22 on hard courts.
Head to head
This is their first meeting on the tour (Tennis Abstract).
Rest and stakes
Medvedev had a first-round bye and five days off since the Shanghai semi-final. He came to Almaty to chase a place at the ATP Finals. Shimabukuro had Wednesday off after his three-set win.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Medvedev won 26.2% of his return games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Shimabukuro 14.7%

StatMedvedevShimabukuro
Season record47-18 (better)31-28
On hard courts35-11 (better)22-22
Last 10 matches8-2 (better)3-7
As favourite46-16 (better)20-9
As underdog1-211-19 (better)
StatMedvedevShimabukuro
Matches counted10 (8-2)10 (2-8)
Aces per match11.3 (better)4.8
Double faults per match3.3 (better)3.2
1st serve in63.2% (better)58.5%
1st serve points won78.5% (better)66.5%
2nd serve points won46.6%48.4% (better)
Service games held85.7% (better)72.2%
Break points saved70.0% (better)54.3%
StatMedvedevShimabukuro
Return points won41.0% (better)31.7%
Return games won26.2% (better)14.7%
Break points converted31.5%37.0% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 21 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Daniil Medvedev 23.09.2026–07.10.2026, Sho Shimabukuro 02.08.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Medvedev vs Shimabukuro?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
Tennis AbstractMedvedev, 91.4% (tournament forecast)Same side
Our position1 of 1 back Medvedev. We are on Medvedev’s side.
No. 06 · Scenario & score

Medvedev vs Shimabukuro predicted score

Medvedev in two sets, two breaks a set

Over his last ten tour matches with stats Medvedev held 85.7% of his service games and won 26.2% of his return games. Shimabukuro held 72.2% and broke in 14.7%. Those numbers point to two Medvedev breaks a set and no break against him: 6:3, 6:3 wins the −4.5 handicap with a game to spare. The alternative is a slow start after five days off, 6:4, 7:6, a straight-sets win that falls short of the handicap. The surprise is a Shimabukuro set, as he took one from Safiullin on Tuesday.

Predicted score
2:0
6:3, 6:3
Alternative
2:0
6:4, 7:6
No. 07 · Our pick

Our Medvedev vs Shimabukuro pick: Daniil Medvedev −4.5 games

Medvedev −4.5 games

Why analysis only

We expect Medvedev in two sets, but the five-game margin rests on one extra break, and in his first match here after a bye a tight opening set is a real chance. We are not sure enough of the margin to stake on it.

Our pick60–64%
Our pickDaniil Medvedev −4.5 games
Odds1.51
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:3, 6:32:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 7:62:0 in sets

What would change our mind A medical time-out or any news about Medvedev's fitness before the start: he retired in the Beijing semi-final on 5 October.

No. 08 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. It is Medvedev's first match of the week after a bye and a flight from Shanghai, and 7:6 in an opening set is common in such a start.
  2. Medvedev wins only 46.6% of his second-serve points, so Shimabukuro can find one break.
  3. Shimabukuro has already played a match in Almaty and came from a set down to beat Roman Safiullin on Tuesday.