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Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · ATP 250 · First round · Indoor hard

Stefanos TsitsipasvsAleksandar Kovacevic prediction · Almaty Open 2026

Date
20 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Second match on court, after Atmane v Hijikata, not before 11:30 local (07:30 UK)
Status
7:6 3:6 6:3
Analysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic?

Stefanos Tsitsipas plays Aleksandar Kovacevic in the first round of the Almaty Open on Tuesday. Our pick: Tsitsipas 2:0 in sets, analysis only.

Predicted score
2:0
Our pick
52–57%
Why analysis only18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2:0 in sets
Odds at publish
1.68
Set by set
6:4, 6:3
Not before (UK)
07:30

Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic at a glance

MatchStefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
TournamentATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · First round
SurfaceIndoor hard
Start20 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local
CourtCenter Court · Second match on court, after Atmane v Hijikata
Our pickStefanos Tsitsipas wins 2:0 in sets · 1.68 · analysis only
Our estimate52–57%
Predicted score2:0 (6:4, 6:3)
Main reasonIn Tokyo he came through qualifying past Yoshihito Nishioka and Rinky Hijikata, beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry and lost to Valentin Vacherot in three sets.
No. 02 · Form

Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic: recent form

Tsitsipas has won eight of his last ten; Kovacevic has won one match since August

Stefanos TsitsipasLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Gombos N. 7-6(3), 6-4
  2. Won v Molcan A. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
  3. Won v Nishioka Y. 7-5, 6-2
  4. Won v Hijikata R. 6-4, 6-3
  5. Won v Etcheverry T. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
  6. Lost to Vacherot V. 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
  7. Won v Coppejans K. 6-3, 7-5
  8. Won v Darderi L. 6-3, 6-4
  9. Won v Fritz T. 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
  10. Lost to Medvedev D. 6-4, 7-5
Aleksandar KovacevicLast 10: 4-6
  1. Lost to Nakashima B. 6-2, 7-5
  2. Won v Balshaw F. 6-4, 7-6(4)
  3. Won v Van Assche L. 6-1, 7-6(6)
  4. Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-3, 7-6(1)
  5. Lost to Fery A. 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
  6. Lost to Vacherot V. 6-2, 6-3, 7-5
  7. Lost to Harris L. 6-3, 6-4
  8. Won v Svajda Z. 6(7)-7, 6-2, 6-4
  9. Lost to Munar J. 6-2, 6-3
  10. Lost to Berrettini M. 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-4

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Lost toMedvedev D.Shanghai · 14.10.266-4, 7-5
Won vFritz T.Shanghai · 12.10.263-6, 7-5, 6-3
Won vDarderi L.Shanghai · 10.10.266-3, 6-4
Won vCoppejans K.Shanghai · 08.10.266-3, 7-5
Lost toVacherot V.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 02.10.264-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
Won vEtcheverry T.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.264-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won vHijikata R.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 29.09.266-4, 6-3
Won vNishioka Y.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 28.09.267-5, 6-2
Won vMolcan A.Davis Cup · 20.09.262-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won vGombos N.Davis Cup · 19.09.267-6(3), 6-4
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Lost toBerrettini M.Shanghai · 07.10.266(3)-7, 6-1, 6-4
Lost toMunar J.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 29.09.266-2, 6-3
Won vSvajda Z.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 28.09.266(7)-7, 6-2, 6-4
Lost toHarris L.Chengdu · 24.09.266-3, 6-4
Lost toVacherot V.US Open · 31.08.266-2, 6-3, 7-5
Lost toFery A.Winston Salem · 28.08.263-6, 7-5, 6-3
Won vTsitsipas S.Winston Salem · 27.08.266-3, 7-6(1)
Won vVan Assche L.Winston Salem · 25.08.266-1, 7-6(6)
Won vBalshaw F.Winston Salem · 25.08.266-4, 7-6(4)
Lost toNakashima B.Cincinnati · 16.08.266-2, 7-5
Tsitsipas this autumnIn Tokyo he came through qualifying past Yoshihito Nishioka and Rinky Hijikata, beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry and lost to Valentin Vacherot in three sets. In Shanghai he beat Kimmer Coppejans, Luciano Darderi and Taylor Fritz 3:6, 7:5, 6:3, then lost to Daniil Medvedev 4:6, 5:7 on 14 October.
No. 03 · Context

The No. 7 seed against the American who beat him in Winston-Salem in August

Kovacevic since August
He reached the quarter-finals in Winston-Salem, beating Tsitsipas on the way. Since then he has lost to Valentin Vacherot at the US Open, to Lloyd Harris in Chengdu, to Jaume Munar in Tokyo qualifying and to Matteo Berrettini in three sets in Shanghai on 7 October.
Season and surface
Tsitsipas is 39-23 this season, 23-15 on hard courts and 30-10 as a favourite. Kovacevic is 22-32 and 14-18 on hard courts.
Head to head
One win each, both on hard courts: Tsitsipas won 7:6(1), 6:3 in the Los Cabos quarter-finals in 2024; Kovacevic won 6:3, 7:6(1) in the Winston-Salem round of 16 in August.
Rest
Tsitsipas has had six days off since Shanghai. Kovacevic has not played for 13 days.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Kovacevic broke serve in 9.2% of his return games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Tsitsipas in 17.7%

StatTsitsipasKovacevic
Season record39-23 (better)22-32
On hard courts23-15 (better)14-18
Last 10 matches8-2 (better)4-6
As favourite30-10 (better)9-4
As underdog9-13 (better)13-27
StatTsitsipasKovacevic
Matches (W-L)10 (7-3)10 (4-6)
Aces per match8.79.1 (better)
Double faults per match1.4 (better)4.0
1st serve in63.9% (better)56.0%
1st serve points won76.3%77.3% (better)
2nd serve points won61.8% (better)49.5%
Service games held88.4% (better)82.9%
Break points saved60.5%64.3% (better)
StatTsitsipasKovacevic
Return points won33.2% (better)28.3%
Return games won17.7% (better)9.2%
Break points converted41.5% (better)35.5%

Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats: Stefanos Tsitsipas 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Aleksandar Kovacevic 13.08.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head2 meetings

Series level at 1-1

2026KovacevicWinston-Salem · Hard · R166-3 7-6(1)
2024TsitsipasLos Cabos · Hard · QF7-6(1) 6-3
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
DimersTsitsipas, 81%Same side
Our position1 of 1 back Tsitsipas. We are on Tsitsipas’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic predicted score

Tsitsipas in two sets

Over their last ten tour matches with stats Tsitsipas held 88.4% of his service games and won 61.8% of his second-serve points; Kovacevic held 82.9% and won 49.5% behind his second serve, with 4.0 double faults a match. Kovacevic broke in only 9.2% of his return games, so Tsitsipas should rarely lose serve, and one break a set is enough on a fast indoor court. We expect 6:4, 6:3 Tsitsipas; three sets are the alternative if he starts slowly again.

Predicted score
2:0
6:4, 6:3
Alternative
2:1
6:4, 4:6, 6:3
No. 08 · Our pick

Our Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2:0 in sets

Tsitsipas to win 2:0 in sets, analysis only

Why analysis only

We expect Tsitsipas to win, so the real question is the score. A straight win at 1.22 tells readers little, so our pick is the set score that follows from our scenario: Tsitsipas 2:0 at 1.68. It stays analysis only: Kovacevic beat him in straight sets in Winston-Salem two months ago, and three of Tsitsipas’s last six matches went the distance.

Our pick52–57%
Our pickStefanos Tsitsipas wins 2:0 in sets
Odds1.68
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:4, 6:32:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind A medical time-out or any news about Tsitsipas’s back or shoulder; then we would not expect a straight-sets win.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Kovacevic won their last meeting 6:3, 7:6(1) in Winston-Salem in August.
  2. Three of Tsitsipas’s last six matches went to three sets: Fritz, Vacherot and Etcheverry.
  3. Kovacevic averages 9.1 aces a match, so a tie-break set is a real outcome.