Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · ATP 250 · Second round · Indoor hard
Stefanos TsitsipasvsMikhail Kukushkin prediction · Almaty Open 2026
Date
21 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Fourth match on court, not before 7:30 PM, not before 11:30 local (07:30 UK)
Status
6:1 6:2
Analysis onlyTSI07:30 UKKUKAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin?
Stefanos Tsitsipas, the seventh seed, plays the Kazakh wildcard Mikhail Kukushkin in the second round of the Almaty Open on Wednesday evening. Our pick: Tsitsipas in two sets, by five games or more.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our pick
- 58–63%
- Our pick
- Stefanos Tsitsipas −4.5 games
- Odds at publish
- 1.49
- Set by set
- 6:3, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 07:30
Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin at a glance
| Match | Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · Second round |
| Surface | Indoor hard |
| Start | 21 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local |
| Court | Center Court · Fourth match on court, not before 7:30 PM |
| Our pick | Stefanos Tsitsipas −4.5 games · 1.49 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 58–63% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:3, 6:4) |
| Main reason | He beat Aleksandar Kovacevic 7:6(9), 3:6, 6:3 in the first round here on Tuesday. |
No. 02 · Form
Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin: recent form
Tsitsipas has won eight of his last ten; Kukushkin won his first match since June
Stefanos TsitsipasLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Molcan A. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Nishioka Y. 7-5, 6-2
- Won v Hijikata R. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Etcheverry T. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Vacherot V. 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
- Won v Coppejans K. 6-3, 7-5
- Won v Darderi L. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Fritz T. 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
- Lost to Medvedev D. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Kovacevic A. 7-6(9), 3-6, 6-3
Mikhail KukushkinLast 10: 4-6
- Won v Cui J. 4-6, 6-4, 6-1
- Lost to Ellis B. 6-3, 7-6(5)
- Won v Kotov P. 1-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Riedi L. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Wong C. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Zhang T. 7-6(4), 6-3
- Lost to Lajal M. 7-6(8), 6(2)-7, 7-6(2)
- Lost to Bellucci M. 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Dzumhur D. 6-2, 6-1
- Won v Sakellaridis S. 7-6(4), 7-6(3)
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Kovacevic A.Almaty · 20.10.26 | 7-6(9), 3-6, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Medvedev D.Shanghai · 14.10.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Won v | Fritz T.Shanghai · 12.10.26 | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Won v | Darderi L.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Coppejans K.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-3, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Vacherot V.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 02.10.26 | 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 |
| Won v | Etcheverry T.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Hijikata R.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Nishioka Y.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 28.09.26 | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Won v | Molcan A.Davis Cup · 20.09.26 | 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Sakellaridis S.Almaty · 19.10.26 | 7-6(4), 7-6(3) |
| Lost to | Dzumhur D.Mallorca · 20.06.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Bellucci M.Halle · 13.06.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Lajal M.Wuxi challenger · 06.05.26 | 7-6(8), 6(2)-7, 7-6(2) |
| Won v | Zhang T.Wuxi challenger · 04.05.26 | 7-6(4), 6-3 |
| Lost to | Wong C.Jiujiang challenger · 29.04.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Riedi L.Gwangju challenger · 23.04.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Kotov P.Gwangju challenger · 21.04.26 | 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Ellis B.Wuning 2 challenger · 16.04.26 | 6-3, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Cui J.Wuning 2 challenger · 15.04.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
Tsitsipas this autumnHe beat Aleksandar Kovacevic 7:6(9), 3:6, 6:3 in the first round here on Tuesday. In Shanghai he beat Kimmer Coppejans, Luciano Darderi and Taylor Fritz, then lost to Daniil Medvedev 4:6, 5:7 in the fourth round on 14 October. He has won eight of his last ten.
No. 03 · Context
The seventh seed against a 38-year-old Kazakh wildcard in front of a home crowd
- Kukushkin this season
- He beat Stefanos Sakellaridis 7:6(4), 7:6(3) as the underdog on Monday, his first match since losing in qualifying at Mallorca in June. Before that his season was mostly Challengers in Asia; he is ranked 389.
- Head-to-head
- Tsitsipas leads 5-0: Dubai and Rome qualifying in 2018, the Marseille final and Monte Carlo in 2019, and Astana in 2022, 6:3, 6:4. Two of the five went to a third set.
- Ratings and the line
- The line gives Tsitsipas 91% and our fresh Elo calculation 87.2%. The average price for Tsitsipas −4.5 games is 1.49.
- Rest
- Tsitsipas played three sets on Tuesday and is back on court a day later in the late session, after a concert on Center Court. Kukushkin rested on Tuesday.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Tsitsipas held 88.4% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Kukushkin 74.5%
| Stat | Tsitsipas | Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 40-23 (better) | 23-19 |
| On hard courts | 24-15 (better) | 22-14 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 4-6 |
| As favourite | 31-10 (better) | 17-7 |
| As underdog | 9-13 (better) | 6-11 |
| Stat | Tsitsipas | Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (7-3) | 10 (4-6) |
| Aces per match | 8.7 (better) | 2.3 |
| Double faults per match | 1.4 | 1.2 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 63.9% (better) | 63.3% |
| 1st serve points won | 76.3% (better) | 66.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 61.8% (better) | 50.7% |
| Service games held | 88.4% (better) | 74.5% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% (better) | 56.3% |
| Stat | Tsitsipas | Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 33.2% | 36.7% (better) |
| Return games won | 17.7% (better) | 17.0% |
| Break points converted | 41.5% (better) | 31.1% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Stefanos Tsitsipas 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Mikhail Kukushkin 13.04.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head5 meetings
Tsitsipas leads 5-0
| 2022 | TsitsipasAstana · Hard · R32 | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2019 | TsitsipasMonte Carlo Masters · Clay · R32 | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2019 | TsitsipasMarseille · Hard · F | 7-5 7-6(5) |
| 2018 | TsitsipasRome Masters · Clay · Q1 | 5-7 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2018 | TsitsipasDubai · Hard · R32 | 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract | Tsitsipas, 87.2% (our fresh Elo) | Same side |
Our position1 of 1 back Tsitsipas. We are on Tsitsipas’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin predicted score
Tsitsipas in two sets
Tsitsipas held 88.4% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats and won 61.8% of his second-serve points; Kukushkin held 74.5% and won 50.7% behind his second serve. One break a set and a second break late in one of them gives 6:3, 6:4, a five-game margin. The risk for the handicap is a tight first set: Kukushkin won both tie-breaks against Sakellaridis, and 7:6, 6:3 would cover only by four games.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:3, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 7:6, 3:6, 6:3
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas −4.5 games
Tsitsipas −4.5 games
Why analysis only
Tsitsipas is a 1.04 favourite to win, which is no price to stake on, and the games handicap depends on whether Kukushkin, cheered by his home crowd, can take a set to a tie-break.
Our pick58–63%
Our pickStefanos Tsitsipas −4.5 games
Odds1.49
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:3, 6:42:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 7:6, 3:6, 6:32:1 in sets
What would change our mind A medical time-out for Tsitsipas in the first set.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Tsitsipas dropped a set to Kovacevic on Tuesday and often starts matches slowly.
- The home crowd in Almaty will be behind Kukushkin, who reached the Marseille final against Tsitsipas in 2019.
- Second day in a row on court for Tsitsipas, with a late start that can slip.