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Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · Second round · Hard

Katie BoultervsViktorija Golubic prediction · Japan Open 2026

Date
21 OCT
Court
Center
Order of play
Third match on court, after Valentova v Tagger (not before 1:00 PM), not before 13:00 local (05:00 UK)
Status
6:2 6:1
Analysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Boulter vs Golubic?

Katie Boulter, the eighth seed, plays Viktorija Golubic in the second round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Wednesday. Our pick is Boulter to win in three sets, as an analysis without a bet.

Predicted score
2:1
Our pick
52–55%
Why analysis only18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Katie Boulter win
Odds at publish
1.87
Set by set
6:4, 4:6, 6:3
Not before (UK)
05:00

Boulter vs Golubic at a glance

MatchKatie Boulter vs Viktorija Golubic
TournamentWTA · Japan Open, Osaka · Second round
SurfaceHard
Start21 OCT · 05:00 UK · 13:00 local
CourtCenter · Third match on court, after Valentova v Tagger (not before 1:00 PM)
Our pickKatie Boulter win · 1.87 · analysis only
Our estimate52–55%
Predicted score2:1 (6:4, 4:6, 6:3)
Main reasonShe beat Himeno Sakatsume 6:3, 6:1 in the Osaka first round, finishing a match held over from Monday.
No. 02 · Form

Boulter vs Golubic: recent form

Both won in the first round in Osaka; Boulter is 4-6 in her last ten matches

Katie BoulterLast 10: 4-6
  1. Lost to Cross K. 7-6(3), 7-5
  2. Won v Volynets K. 7-5, 0-6, 6-4
  3. Lost to Noskova L. 6-3, 6-3
  4. Won v Lee C. 6-4, 3-6, 6-0
  5. Lost to Muchova K. 6-1, 6-0
  6. Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 7-6(3)
  7. Won v Hontama M. 6-3, 6-4
  8. Lost to Muchova K. 7-6(3), 6-1
  9. Lost to Shnaider D. 6-3, 6-1
  10. Won v Sakatsume H. 6-3, 6-1
Viktorija GolubicLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Vekic D. 5-7, 6-2, 6-3
  2. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-2, 6-1
  3. Won v Parks A. 6-2, 6-2
  4. Lost to Tjen J. 7-6(8), 5-7, 7-5
  5. Lost to Parry D. 7-5, 6-4
  6. Won v Kalieva E. 6-3, 6-1
  7. Won v Stearns P. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
  8. Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 6-1
  9. Lost to Kasatkina D. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-4
  10. Won v Hontama M. 6-3, 6-1

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Katie Boulter
Won vSakatsume H.Osaka WTA · 20.10.266-3, 6-1
Lost toShnaider D.Wuhan · 13.10.266-3, 6-1
Lost toMuchova K.Beijing · 02.10.267-6(3), 6-1
Won vHontama M.Beijing · 30.09.266-3, 6-4
Lost toNoskova L.Billie Jean King Cup · 22.09.266-2, 7-6(3)
Lost toMuchova K.US Open · 02.09.266-1, 6-0
Won vLee C.US Open · 30.08.266-4, 3-6, 6-0
Lost toNoskova L.Cincinnati WTA · 15.08.266-3, 6-3
Won vVolynets K.Cincinnati WTA · 14.08.267-5, 0-6, 6-4
Lost toCross K.Toronto WTA · 03.08.267-6(3), 7-5
Viktorija Golubic
Won vHontama M.Osaka WTA · 19.10.266-3, 6-1
Lost toKasatkina D.Wuhan · 10.10.264-6, 7-6(3), 6-4
Lost toNoskova L.Beijing · 04.10.266-2, 6-1
Won vStearns P.Beijing · 02.10.266-4, 3-6, 6-3
Won vKalieva E.Beijing · 30.09.266-3, 6-1
Lost toParry D.US Open · 31.08.267-5, 6-4
Lost toTjen J.Cincinnati WTA · 16.08.267-6(8), 5-7, 7-5
Won vParks A.Cincinnati WTA · 14.08.266-2, 6-2
Lost toSwiatek I.Toronto WTA · 06.08.266-2, 6-1
Won vVekic D.Toronto WTA · 04.08.265-7, 6-2, 6-3
Boulter this autumnShe beat Himeno Sakatsume 6:3, 6:1 in the Osaka first round, finishing a match held over from Monday. Before that she lost to Diana Shnaider in Wuhan and to Karolina Muchova in Beijing.
No. 03 · Context

The eighth seed from Britain against Switzerland's Viktorija Golubic, eight months after a 6:2, 6:2 in Ostrava

Golubic this autumn
She beat Mai Hontama 6:3, 6:1 in the Osaka first round. In Beijing she reached the third round, where Linda Noskova beat her, and in Wuhan she lost to Daria Kasatkina in three sets in qualifying.
Season and surface
Boulter is 23-22 this season and 15-12 on hard courts. Golubic is 29-24 and 14-14 on hard courts.
Head to head
Two wins each. Boulter won the last one 6:2, 6:2 in Ostrava in February 2026; Golubic won in Cleveland in 2025 in three sets.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Golubic wins 40.4% of her return games, Boulter 34.7%

StatBoulterGolubic
Season record23-2229-24 (better)
On hard courts15-12 (better)14-14
Last 10 matches4-65-5 (better)
As favourite18-920-6 (better)
As underdog5-139-18 (better)
StatBoulterGolubic
Matches3827
Aces per match2.1 (better)1.3
Double faults per match5.72.7 (better)
1st serve in59.2%68.9% (better)
1st serve points won66.2% (better)59.2%
2nd serve points won42.1%46.1% (better)
Service games held65.0% (better)62.8%
Break points saved53.6%55.0% (better)
StatBoulterGolubic
Return points won43.1%45.3% (better)
Return games won34.7%40.4% (better)
Break points converted44.7% (better)44.2%

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head4 meetings

2-2

2026BoulterOstrava · Hard · R166-2 6-2
2025GolubicCleveland · Hard · R167-6(6) 1-6 6-4
2023BoulterSurbiton · Grass · Q7-5 6-2
2019GolubicIndian Wells · Hard · R326-4 6-3
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Boulter vs Golubic?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
Tennis Abstract EloBoulter, 54.7%Same side
Our position1 of 1 back Boulter. We are on Boulter’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Boulter vs Golubic predicted score

Boulter in three sets

Boulter has the bigger first serve (66.2% of first-serve points won against 59.2%), but she lands only 59.2% of first serves and double-faults 5.7 times a match. Golubic is the better returner, with 40.4% of return games won. We expect breaks on both sides and a decider: 6:4, 4:6, 6:3 Boulter, with a Golubic win in three as the alternative.

Predicted score
2:1
6:4, 4:6, 6:3
Alternative
1:2
4:6, 6:4, 4:6
No. 08 · Our pick

Our Boulter vs Golubic pick: Katie Boulter win

Boulter to win the match

Why analysis only

The line has them level and Boulter has won only four of her last ten matches, so either result is realistic and we are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.

Our pick52–55%
Our pickKatie Boulter win
Odds1.87
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
Alternative
4:6, 6:4, 4:61:2 in sets

What would change our mind If Boulter's first-serve percentage stays near her season average of 59%, Golubic's return will decide the match.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Boulter has lost six of her last ten matches.
  2. She averages 5.7 double faults a match, and Golubic wins 40.4% of her return games.
  3. Golubic has won two of their four meetings, both on hard courts.