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Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · Second round · Hard

Ann LivsZeynep Sonmez prediction · Japan Open 2026

Date
22 OCT
Court
Court to be confirmed
Order of play
First match of the day (11:30 AM start; the official order of play was not out at publication), not before 11:30 local (03:30 UK)
Status
6:3 6:1
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Li vs Sonmez?

Ann Li, the top seed, plays Zeynep Sonmez in the second round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Thursday morning. Our bet: Sonmez +4.5 games, because we expect a close match between a strong server and the player who has won all three of their meetings.

Predicted score
2:1
Our estimate
64–68%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Zeynep Sonmez +4.5 games
Odds at publish
1.58
Set by set
7:5, 4:6, 6:4
Not before (UK)
03:30

Li vs Sonmez at a glance

MatchAnn Li vs Zeynep Sonmez
TournamentWTA · Japan Open, Osaka · Second round
SurfaceHard
Start22 OCT · 03:30 UK · 11:30 local
CourtCourt to be confirmed · First match of the day (11:30 AM start; the official order of play was not out at publication)
Our pickZeynep Sonmez +4.5 games · 1.58 · bet
Our estimate64–68%
Predicted score2:1 (7:5, 4:6, 6:4)
Main reasonWe back Zeynep Sonmez with 4.5 games start because we expect a tight match, not a rout.
No. 02 · Form

Li vs Sonmez: recent form

Li beat Aryna Sabalenka in Wuhan; Sonmez came from a set down to beat Maya Joint here

Ann LiLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Vekic D. 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
  2. Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 6(6)-7, 6-2
  3. Won v Krueger A. 6-4, 6-2
  4. Won v Bencic B. 6-4, 6-3
  5. Lost to Svitolina E. 6-2, 6-3
  6. Won v Osorio C. 6-1, 3-0 ret.
  7. Won v Sabalenka A. 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)
  8. Won v Tjen J. 6-1, 7-6(1)
  9. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-4, 6-1
  10. Won v Jones E. 5-7, 6-0, 6-3
Zeynep SonmezLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Kasatkina D. 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-3
  2. Lost to Anisimova A. 6-2, 6-3
  3. Lost to Gauff C. 6-3, 6-4
  4. Won v Shymanovich I. 6-1, 6-1
  5. Lost to Jovic I. 7-6(5), 6-4
  6. Lost to Inglis M. 6-4, 6-4
  7. Won v Zakharova A. 6-3, 6-2
  8. Won v Kraus S. 6-2, 6-4
  9. Lost to Putintseva Y. 6(1)-7, 6-3, 7-5
  10. Won v Joint M. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Ann Li
Won vJones E.Osaka WTA · 20.10.265-7, 6-0, 6-3
Lost toSwiatek I.Wuhan · 16.10.266-4, 6-1
Won vTjen J.Wuhan · 15.10.266-1, 7-6(1)
Won vSabalenka A.Wuhan · 14.10.263-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)
Won vOsorio C.Wuhan · 13.10.266-1, 3-0 ret.
Lost toSvitolina E.Beijing · 07.10.266-2, 6-3
Won vBencic B.Beijing · 05.10.266-4, 6-3
Won vKrueger A.Beijing · 03.10.266-4, 6-2
Lost toNoskova L.US Open · 04.09.266-2, 6(6)-7, 6-2
Won vVekic D.US Open · 03.09.265-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
Zeynep Sonmez
Won vJoint M.Osaka WTA · 20.10.263-6, 6-4, 6-3
Lost toPutintseva Y.Wuhan · 13.10.266(1)-7, 6-3, 7-5
Won vKraus S.Wuhan · 11.10.266-2, 6-4
Won vZakharova A.Wuhan · 10.10.266-3, 6-2
Lost toInglis M.Beijing · 30.09.266-4, 6-4
Lost toJovic I.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 16.09.267-6(5), 6-4
Won vShymanovich I.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 15.09.266-1, 6-1
Lost toGauff C.US Open · 02.09.266-3, 6-4
Lost toAnisimova A.Cincinnati WTA · 15.08.266-2, 6-3
Won vKasatkina D.Cincinnati WTA · 13.08.262-6, 7-6(4), 6-3
Li this autumnIn Wuhan she beat Aryna Sabalenka 3:6, 6:4, 7:6 as a big underdog and Janice Tjen 6:1, 7:6, then lost to Iga Swiatek 4:6, 1:6 in the quarter-finals. In Beijing she beat Belinda Bencic 6:4, 6:3. Here she came from a set down to beat Emerson Jones 5:7, 6:0, 6:3 on Tuesday.
No. 03 · Context

The top seed in Osaka meets the one player she has never beaten

Sonmez this autumn
She beat Maya Joint 3:6, 6:4, 6:3 in the first round here as the underdog. Before Osaka she qualified for Wuhan and lost to Yulia Putintseva in three sets, lost to Maddison Inglis in Beijing and to Iva Jovic 6:7, 4:6 in Guadalajara.
Season and surface
Li is 30-25 this season and 19-16 on hard courts. Sonmez is 33-23 and 17-15 on hard courts.
Head to head
Sonmez leads 3-0: Wimbledon 2026 (7:5, 1:6, 6:4), Merida 2026 (3:6, 7:6, 6:4) and the Merida final in 2024 (6:2, 6:1).
Rest
Both played three sets on Tuesday and had Wednesday off. Li has played three matches and seven sets in the last seven days, Sonmez one match.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Li holds 71.0% of her service games but wins only 30.2% of her return games

StatLiSonmez
Season record30-2533-23 (better)
On hard courts19-16 (better)17-15
Last 10 matches7-3 (better)5-5
As favourite22-1225-8 (better)
As underdog8-13 (better)8-15
StatLiSonmez
Matches5341
Aces per match5.2 (better)1.0
Double faults per match2.9 (better)3.0
1st serve in58.7%62.8% (better)
1st serve points won68.6% (better)59.2%
2nd serve points won45.5%45.7% (better)
Service games held71.0% (better)60.9%
Break points saved59.8% (better)53.2%
StatLiSonmez
Return points won41.6%44.2% (better)
Return games won30.2%36.8% (better)
Break points converted42.8%45.4% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head3 meetings

Sonmez leads 3-0

2026SonmezWimbledon · Grass · R1287-5 1-6 6-4
2026SonmezMérida · Hard · R163-6 7-6(7) 6-4
2024SonmezMérida · Hard · F6-2 6-1
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Li vs Sonmez?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
DimersLi, 62%Other side
Tennis AbstractLi, 64% (our fresh Elo)Other side
Our position2 of 2 back Li. We are on Sonmez’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Li vs Sonmez predicted score

A close match, Li in three

Li should hold most of her service games, but she breaks rarely, so Sonmez can stay close on her own serve even though she holds only 60.9% of the time. We see Li 7:5, 4:6, 6:4; a Sonmez win in three, as in both meetings this year, is the alternative. The +4.5 games bet wins with any Sonmez win, almost any three-set Li win and a straight-sets Li win by up to four games (6:4, 6:4). It loses if Li wins in two sets by five games or more, such as 6:3, 6:4.

Predicted score
2:1
7:5, 4:6, 6:4
Alternative
1:2
4:6, 6:3, 4:6
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Li vs Sonmez pick: Zeynep Sonmez +4.5 games

Sonmez +4.5 games

Why we back it

We back Zeynep Sonmez with 4.5 games start because we expect a tight match, not a rout. Ann Li is the favourite and in the best form of her season, but her strength is the serve: she holds 71.0% of her service games and hits 5.2 aces a match, while she wins only 30.2% of her return games. Sonmez has won all three of their meetings, both 2026 matches in three sets. Even the most positive model for Li, Dimers, gives her 62% to win the match, which is a contest, not a mismatch.

Our probability64–68%
Our pickZeynep Sonmez +4.5 games
Odds1.58
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
7:5, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
Alternative
4:6, 6:3, 4:61:2 in sets

What would change our mind Any news about Sonmez's fitness, or the price on Sonmez +4.5 games dropping below 1.50 before the start.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Sonmez holds only 60.9% of her service games, so Li will get break chances.
  2. Li is in the best run of her season, with wins over Aryna Sabalenka and Belinda Bencic in the last three weeks.
  3. The head-to-head is context, not a rule: the betting line already knows it.
No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Sonmez +4.5 games: she has won all three meetings with Li, and Li wins only 30.2% of her return games this season.

Bet
Zeynep Sonmez +4.5 games
Odds at publish
1.58 · 21 OCT 18:27 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly