Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · First round · Hard
Claire LiuvsMagda Linette prediction · Japan Open 2026
Date
20 OCT
Court
Court 1
Order of play
First match on court, not before 11:30 local (03:30 UK)
Status
4:6 3:6
Analysis onlyLIU03:30 UKLINAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Liu vs Linette?
Claire Liu plays Magda Linette in the first round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Tuesday. Our pick is Liu to win, most likely 6:4, 6:4, as an analysis without a bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our pick
- 58–61%
- Our pick
- Claire Liu win
- Odds at publish
- 1.54
- Set by set
- 6:4, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 03:30
Liu vs Linette at a glance
| Match | Claire Liu vs Magda Linette |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · First round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 20 OCT · 03:30 UK · 11:30 local |
| Court | Court 1 · First match on court |
| Our pick | Claire Liu win · 1.54 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 58–61% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:4, 6:4) |
| Main reason | She won the WTA 125 title in Barranquilla in September, lost to Rebeka Sramkova in Suzhou and in Wuhan qualifying. |
No. 02 · Form
Liu vs Linette: recent form
Linette has not won a match since 3 August; Liu won two qualifying rounds in Osaka
Claire LiuLast 10: 7-3
- Won v Lepchenko V. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Quevedo K. 7-5, 6-1
- Won v Jeanjean L. 6-2, 6-4
- Won v Blinkova A. 6-0, 2-6, 7-5
- Lost to Stoiana M. 6-3, 7-5
- Won v Jacquemot E. 6-1, 6-1
- Lost to Sramkova R. 7-5, 6-4
- Lost to Tararudee L. 7-6(4), 6-4
- Won v Sawashiro K. 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Inglis M. 6-4, 6-3
Magda LinetteLast 10: 1-9
- Lost to Andreeva M. 7-5, 6-4
- Lost to Hontama M. 6-4, 7-5
- Lost to Fernandez L. 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Zhao C. 4-6, 6-1, 6-4
- Lost to Jovic I. 6-3, 7-5
- Lost to Ruse E. 6-0, 6-3
- Lost to Jones F. 6-4, 1-6, 6-3
- Lost to Astakhova D. 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(2)
- Lost to Siniakova K. 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Kraus S. 7-6(3), 6-2
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Inglis M.Osaka WTA · 18.10.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Sawashiro K.Osaka WTA · 17.10.26 | 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Tararudee L.Wuhan · 10.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-4 |
| Lost to | Sramkova R.Suzhou · 07.10.26 | 7-5, 6-4 |
| Won v | Jacquemot E.Suzhou · 05.10.26 | 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Stoiana M.Sao Paulo WTA · 16.09.26 | 6-3, 7-5 |
| Won v | Blinkova A.Barranquilla · 12.09.26 | 6-0, 2-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Jeanjean L.Barranquilla · 11.09.26 | 6-2, 6-4 |
| Won v | Quevedo K.Barranquilla · 10.09.26 | 7-5, 6-1 |
| Won v | Lepchenko V.Barranquilla · 09.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Kraus S.Wuhan · 10.10.26 | 7-6(3), 6-2 |
| Lost to | Siniakova K.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Astakhova D.Seoul WTA · 21.09.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(2) |
| Lost to | Jones F.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Ruse E.Cincinnati WTA · 13.08.26 | 6-0, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Jovic I.Toronto WTA · 05.08.26 | 6-3, 7-5 |
| Won v | Zhao C.Toronto WTA · 03.08.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Fernandez L.Washington · 27.07.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Hontama M.Athens WTA · 13.07.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Andreeva M.Wimbledon · 29.06.26 | 7-5, 6-4 |
Liu this autumnShe won the WTA 125 title in Barranquilla in September, lost to Rebeka Sramkova in Suzhou and in Wuhan qualifying. In Osaka qualifying she beat Sawashiro 6:1, 6:1 and Inglis 6:4, 6:3.
No. 03 · Context
An American qualifier against a Polish veteran in the first match on Court 1
- Linette since August
- Six defeats in a row: Iva Jovic in Toronto, Elena-Gabriela Ruse in Cincinnati, Jones at the US Open, Astakhova in Seoul, Katerina Siniakova in Beijing and Sinja Kraus in Wuhan qualifying. Her last win was on 3 August.
- Season and surface
- Liu is 38-20 this season (many matches below the main tour) and 16-11 on hard courts. Linette is 20-22 and 13-16 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Liu won their only meeting, in Charleston in 2018 on clay, 1:6, 6:3, 6:3.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Linette has lost six matches in a row; Liu is 38-20 this season
| Stat | Liu | Linette |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 38-20 (better) | 20-22 |
| On hard courts | 16-11 (better) | 13-16 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 (better) | 1-9 |
| As favourite | 34-12 (better) | 8-7 |
| As underdog | 4-8 | 11-15 (better) |
| Stat | Liu | Linette |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 39 |
| Aces per match | 1.0 | 3.7 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 3.8 | 2.3 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 68.9% (better) | 58.1% |
| 1st serve points won | 59.4% | 65.0% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.1% | 46.4% (better) |
| Service games held | 61.9% | 67.0% (better) |
| Break points saved | 55.4% (better) | 49.5% |
| Stat | Liu | Linette |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 41.8% (better) | 41.2% |
| Return games won | 31.6% (better) | 30.2% |
| Break points converted | 45.5% (better) | 41.1% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Liu leads 1-0
| 2018 | LiuCharleston · Clay · R64 | 1-6 6-3 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2
Who do others back in Liu vs Linette?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Tonic | Liu in three sets | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Linette, 55.3% | Other side |
Our positionThe sources are split 1–1. We are on Liu’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Liu vs Linette predicted score
Liu in two sets
Neither player wins many return games (31.6% and 30.2% this season), so holds decide it. Linette serves bigger (3.7 aces a match), but Liu arrives with two wins on these courts and Linette with six straight defeats. We expect 6:4, 6:4 Liu; a Liu win in three sets is the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:4, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Liu vs Linette pick: Claire Liu win
Liu to win the match
Why analysis only
The price on Liu is above the range we stake at, and the Elo rating still makes Linette the favourite. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick58–61%
Our pickClaire Liu win
Odds1.54
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 6:42:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind A strong start from Linette on serve would make this the close match the Elo rating expects.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- The Tennis Abstract Elo rating still makes Linette the favourite, 55.3% to 44.7%.
- Linette holds more service games this season (67.0% against 61.9%).
- Liu has only eight tour-level matches with official stats this season and plays a third day in a row.