Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · First round · Hard
Liudmila SamsonovavsLilli Tagger prediction · Japan Open 2026
Date
19 OCT
Court
Court 1
Order of play
First match on court, not before 11:30 local (03:30 UK)
Status
3:6 3:6
Analysis onlySAM03:30 UKTAGAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Samsonova vs Tagger?
Liudmila Samsonova plays Lilli Tagger in the first round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Monday. Our pick: Samsonova in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 55–58%
- Our pick
- Liudmila Samsonova win
- Odds at publish
- 1.66
- Set by set
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 03:30
Samsonova vs Tagger at a glance
| Match | Liudmila Samsonova vs Lilli Tagger |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · First round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 19 OCT · 03:30 UK · 11:30 local |
| Court | Court 1 · First match on court |
| Our pick | Liudmila Samsonova win · 1.66 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 55–58% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 4:6, 6:3) |
| Main reason | In Wuhan she beat Katerina Siniakova 6:1, 5:7, 6:2 and lost to Elina Svitolina 2:6, 7:5, 2:6. |
No. 02 · Form
Samsonova vs Tagger: recent form
Samsonova took Svitolina to three sets in Wuhan; Tagger has lost three in a row
Liudmila SamsonovaLast 10: 5-5
- Lost to Gauff C. 2-6, 6-4, 6-1
- Lost to Joint M. 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Jacquemot E. 7-6(6), 6-2
- Won v Day K. 7-6(4), 2-6, 7-6(5)
- Won v Kostyuk M. 4-6, 6-2, 7-5
- Lost to Stearns P. 7-6(7), 6-2
- Won v Fruhvirtova L. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
- Lost to Muchova K. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Siniakova K. 6-1, 5-7, 6-2
- Lost to Svitolina E. 6-2, 5-7, 6-2
Lilli TaggerLast 10: 5-5
- Won v Krejcikova B. 6(5)-7, 6-3, 7-6(4)
- Won v Snigur D. 7-6(3), 6-2
- Won v Zhu L. 3-6, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Montgomery R. 6-3, 6-1
- Lost to Gibson T. 4-6, 6-1, 7-5
- Lost to Starodubtseva Y. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Korpatsch T. 6-0, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Anisimova A. 6-3, 3-6, 6-1
- Lost to Ruse E. 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Bartunkova N. 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-1
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 |
| Won v | Siniakova K.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 6-1, 5-7, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Muchova K.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Fruhvirtova L.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Stearns P.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 19.09.26 | 7-6(7), 6-2 |
| Won v | Kostyuk M.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 18.09.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| Won v | Day K.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 17.09.26 | 7-6(4), 2-6, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Jacquemot E.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 15.09.26 | 7-6(6), 6-2 |
| Lost to | Joint M.US Open · 31.08.26 | 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.Cincinnati WTA · 17.08.26 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Bartunkova N.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Ruse E.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Anisimova A.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Korpatsch T.US Open · 31.08.26 | 6-0, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Starodubtseva Y.Monterrey · 24.08.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Gibson T.Cincinnati WTA · 14.08.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Montgomery R.Cincinnati WTA · 13.08.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Zhu L.Cincinnati WTA · 11.08.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Snigur D.Livesport Prague Open · 26.07.26 | 7-6(3), 6-2 |
| Won v | Krejcikova B.Livesport Prague Open · 25.07.26 | 6(5)-7, 6-3, 7-6(4) |
Samsonova this autumnIn Wuhan she beat Katerina Siniakova 6:1, 5:7, 6:2 and lost to Elina Svitolina 2:6, 7:5, 2:6. In Beijing she lost to Karolina Muchova in three sets.
No. 03 · Context
A rematch of Linz, where Tagger won 6:2, 7:6(11) in April
- Tagger this autumn
- She lost to Nikola Bartunkova in three sets in Wuhan and to Elsa Ruse in Beijing; at the US Open she lost to Amanda Anisimova in the second round.
- Season and surface
- Samsonova is 21-25 this season and 15-15 on hard courts. Tagger is 30-20 and 24-11 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Tagger won their only meeting, on clay in Linz in April 2026, 6:2, 7:6(11).
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Samsonova and Tagger both hold about 69% of their service games this season
| Stat | Samsonova | Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 21-25 | 30-20 (better) |
| On hard courts | 15-15 | 24-11 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| As favourite | 16-9 | 25-11 (better) |
| As underdog | 5-16 | 5-9 (better) |
| Stat | Samsonova | Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 23 |
| Aces per match | 3.0 | 4.1 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 5.0 | 2.9 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 57.5% | 65.9% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 66.5% (better) | 66.3% |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.8% | 46.7% (better) |
| Service games held | 69.2% (better) | 69.1% |
| Break points saved | 56.7% (better) | 51.2% |
| Stat | Samsonova | Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 42.0% (better) | 41.1% |
| Return games won | 32.2% (better) | 29.7% |
| Break points converted | 44.5% | 47.8% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 18 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Tagger leads 1-0
| 2026 | TaggerLinz · Clay · R16 | 6-2 7-6(11) |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2
Who do others back in Samsonova vs Tagger?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Samsonova, 57.8% | Same side |
| Last Word On Tennis | Tagger in three sets | Other side |
Our positionThe sources are split 1–1. We are on Samsonova’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Samsonova vs Tagger predicted score
Samsonova in three sets
Their serve numbers this season are almost identical (69.2% and 69.1% of service games held), and Samsonova wins slightly more return games (32.2% against 29.7%). Samsonova also averages 5.0 double faults a match to Tagger’s 2.9, so we expect swings: 6:4, 4:6, 6:3. A Tagger win is a real outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
- Alternative
- 2:0
- 6:4, 7:5
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Samsonova vs Tagger pick: Liudmila Samsonova win
Samsonova to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Tagger won their only meeting and the price on Samsonova is above the range we stake at. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick55–58%
Our pickLiudmila Samsonova win
Odds1.66
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 7:52:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Samsonova’s fitness, or a run of double faults early in the match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Tagger beat Samsonova in their only meeting, in Linz in April.
- Samsonova is 21-25 this season and has lost 16 of her 21 matches as the underdog, but also nine as the favourite.
- Last Word On Tennis picks Tagger in three sets.