Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · Second round · Hard
Tereza ValentovavsLilli Tagger prediction · Japan Open 2026
Date
21 OCT
Court
Center
Order of play
Second match on court, after Gibson v Kraus (not before 1:00 PM), not before 13:00 local (05:00 UK)
Status
5:7 3:6
Analysis onlyVAL05:00 UKTAGAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Valentova vs Tagger?
Tereza Valentova, 19, plays Lilli Tagger, 18, in the second round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Wednesday. Our pick is Tagger to win in three sets, as an analysis without a bet.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our pick
- 52–55%
- Our pick
- Lilli Tagger win
- Odds at publish
- 1.85
- Set by set
- 6:4, 3:6, 4:6
- Not before (UK)
- 05:00
Valentova vs Tagger at a glance
| Match | Tereza Valentova vs Lilli Tagger |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · Second round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 21 OCT · 05:00 UK · 13:00 local |
| Court | Center · Second match on court, after Gibson v Kraus (not before 1:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Lilli Tagger win · 1.85 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 52–55% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (6:4, 3:6, 4:6) |
| Main reason | She reached the final here in 2025 and lost to Leylah Fernandez in three sets. |
No. 02 · Form
Valentova vs Tagger: recent form
Valentova won her first match in 52 days in three sets; Tagger beat Liudmila Samsonova in straight sets
Tereza ValentovaLast 10: 6-4
- Lost to Snigur D. 7-6(4), 6-3
- Lost to Townsend T. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Stoiana M. 6-2, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Svitolina E. 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-0
- Won v Arseneault A. 7-6(6), 6-1
- Won v Tian F. 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Collins K. 6-1, 6-2
- Won v Grabher J. 6-3, 6-1
- Lost to Volynets K. 6-3, 7-5
- Won v Zhang S. 6-2, 1-6, 6-4
Lilli TaggerLast 10: 5-5
- Won v Snigur D. 7-6(3), 6-2
- Won v Zhu L. 3-6, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Montgomery R. 6-3, 6-1
- Lost to Gibson T. 4-6, 6-1, 7-5
- Lost to Starodubtseva Y. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Korpatsch T. 6-0, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Anisimova A. 6-3, 3-6, 6-1
- Lost to Ruse E. 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Bartunkova N. 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-1
- Won v Samsonova L. 6-3, 6-3
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Zhang S.Osaka WTA · 20.10.26 | 6-2, 1-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Volynets K.Philadelphia WTA · 29.08.26 | 6-3, 7-5 |
| Won v | Grabher J.Philadelphia WTA · 28.08.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Collins K.Philadelphia WTA · 27.08.26 | 6-1, 6-2 |
| Won v | Tian F.Philadelphia WTA · 26.08.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Arseneault A.Philadelphia WTA · 24.08.26 | 7-6(6), 6-1 |
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Cincinnati WTA · 17.08.26 | 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-0 |
| Won v | Stoiana M.Cincinnati WTA · 14.08.26 | 6-2, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Townsend T.Toronto WTA · 04.08.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Snigur D.Livesport Prague Open · 25.07.26 | 7-6(4), 6-3 |
| Won v | Samsonova L.Osaka WTA · 19.10.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Bartunkova N.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Ruse E.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Anisimova A.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Korpatsch T.US Open · 31.08.26 | 6-0, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Starodubtseva Y.Monterrey · 24.08.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Gibson T.Cincinnati WTA · 14.08.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Montgomery R.Cincinnati WTA · 13.08.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Zhu L.Cincinnati WTA · 11.08.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Snigur D.Livesport Prague Open · 26.07.26 | 7-6(3), 6-2 |
Valentova in OsakaShe reached the final here in 2025 and lost to Leylah Fernandez in three sets. This week she beat Zhang Shuai 6:2, 1:6, 6:4 on Tuesday, her first match since losing the Philadelphia WTA 125 final on 29 August.
No. 03 · Context
Two teenagers in the Osaka second round, one of them last year's finalist
- Tagger this autumn
- She beat Liudmila Samsonova 6:3, 6:3 in the Osaka first round as the underdog. Before that she lost in the first round in Wuhan to Nikola Bartunkova and in Beijing to Elena-Gabriela Ruse.
- Season and surface
- Valentova is 27-19 this season and 20-12 on hard courts. Tagger is 31-20 and 25-11 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Valentova won their only meeting 7:5, 7:5 at the WTA 125 event in Saint-Malo in April 2026, on clay.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Tagger holds 69.5% of her service games, Valentova 62.5%
| Stat | Valentova | Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 27-19 | 31-20 (better) |
| On hard courts | 20-12 | 25-11 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 (better) | 5-5 |
| As favourite | 25-10 (better) | 25-11 |
| As underdog | 2-9 | 6-9 (better) |
| Stat | Valentova | Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 31 | 24 |
| Aces per match | 2.1 | 4.1 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 4.1 | 2.9 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 60.7% | 65.6% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 62.4% | 66.4% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 43.1% | 46.6% (better) |
| Service games held | 62.5% | 69.5% (better) |
| Break points saved | 50.0% | 50.9% (better) |
| Stat | Valentova | Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 45.0% (better) | 41.2% |
| Return games won | 37.5% (better) | 29.3% |
| Break points converted | 43.3% | 45.5% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Valentova leads 1-0
| 2026 | ValentovaSaint-Malo · Clay · Q | 7-5 7-5 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Valentova vs Tagger?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Valentova, 61.1% | Other side |
Our position1 of 1 back Valentova. We are on Tagger’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Valentova vs Tagger predicted score
Tagger in three sets
Tagger has the better serve: 69.5% of service games held and 4.1 aces a match, against 62.5% and 2.1 for Valentova. Valentova is the stronger returner (37.5% of return games won against 29.3%), so we expect breaks both ways and a third set. Our line is 4:6, 6:3, 6:4 Tagger; a Valentova win in three is the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 6:4, 3:6, 4:6
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Valentova vs Tagger pick: Lilli Tagger win
Tagger to win the match
Why analysis only
The line has them level and the Elo rating prefers Valentova, so either result is realistic and we are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick52–55%
Our pickLilli Tagger win
Odds1.85
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 3:6, 4:61:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind If Valentova returns as well as she did against Zhang in the first and third sets, the match goes her way.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- The Tennis Abstract Elo rating makes Valentova the favourite, 61.1% to 38.9%.
- Valentova reached the final here last year and won 7:5, 7:5 in their only meeting.
- Tagger has lost three of her last ten matches as the favourite and is 2-3 in her last five.