Cobolli vs Wawrinka prediction · Lyon Open

No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Cobolli vs Wawrinka?

Flavio Cobolli, the top seed, plays the wildcard Stan Wawrinka in the second round of the Lyon Open on Thursday night on Court Central. Our pick: Wawrinka +4.5 games; we expect Cobolli to win 6:4, 6:7, 6:4.

Predicted score: 2:1
Our pick: 67–69%

Why analysis only18+Play responsibly

Our pick: Stan Wawrinka +4.5 games
Odds at publish: 1.38
Set by set: 6:4, 6:7, 6:4
Not before (UK): 11:00

Cobolli vs Wawrinka at a glance

Match	Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
Tournament	ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · Second round
Surface	Indoor hard
Start	22 OCT · 11:00 UK · 12:00 local
Court	Court Central · First match of the night session, not before 7:00 PM
Our pick	Stan Wawrinka +4.5 games · 1.38 · analysis only
Our estimate	67–69%
Predicted score	2:1 (6:4, 6:7, 6:4)
Main reason	The top seed, ranked 6, has lost four matches in a row: to Alexei Blockx at the US Open, Learner Tien at the Laver Cup, Roman Safiullin 3:6, 2:6 in Beijing and Adrian Mannarino 1:6, 6:4, 3:6 in Shanghai on 9 October as the favourite.

No. 02 · Form

Cobolli vs Wawrinka: recent form

Cobolli has lost four matches in a row; Wawrinka beat Landaluce in a final-set tie-break on Wednesday

Flavio CobolliLast 10: 5-5

Won v Blockx A. 7-5, 4-6, 7-5
Won v Jodar R. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3
Won v Paul T. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Fils A. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Comesana F. 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Won v Schoolkate T. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5
Lost to Blockx A. 6(4)-7, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3
Lost to Tien L. 6-3, 2-6, 10-7
Lost to Safiullin R. 6-3, 6-2
Lost to Mannarino A. 6-1, 4-6, 6-3

Stan WawrinkaLast 10: 2-8

Lost to Michelsen A. 7-6(1), 7-6(4)
Lost to De Jong J. 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Berrettini M. 6(7)-7, 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5)
Lost to Faria J. 6(8)-7, 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Burruchaga R. 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
Won v Svrcina D. 7-6(6), 7-6(3)
Lost to Safiullin R. 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Berrettini M. 7-6(4), 7-6(3), 6-0
Lost to Heide G. 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4
Won v Landaluce M. 6-3, 6(2)-7, 7-6(5)

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Flavio Cobolli
Lost to	Mannarino A.Shanghai · 09.10.26	6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Lost to	Safiullin R.Beijing · 01.10.26	6-3, 6-2
Lost to	Tien L.Laver Cup · 26.09.26	6-3, 2-6, 10-7
Lost to	Blockx A.US Open · 05.09.26	6(4)-7, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3
Won v	Schoolkate T.US Open · 03.09.26	3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5
Won v	Comesana F.US Open · 01.09.26	3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Lost to	Fils A.Cincinnati · 22.08.26	6-3, 6-4
Won v	Paul T.Cincinnati · 20.08.26	2-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won v	Jodar R.Cincinnati · 19.08.26	4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3
Won v	Blockx A.Cincinnati · 17.08.26	7-5, 4-6, 7-5

Stan Wawrinka
Won v	Landaluce M.Lyon · 21.10.26	6-3, 6(2)-7, 7-6(5)
Lost to	Heide G.Davis Cup · 18.09.26	4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4
Lost to	Berrettini M.US Open · 31.08.26	7-6(4), 7-6(3), 6-0
Lost to	Safiullin R.Cancun challenger · 21.08.26	6-3, 6-4
Won v	Svrcina D.Cancun challenger · 19.08.26	7-6(6), 7-6(3)
Lost to	Burruchaga R.Estoril · 21.07.26	6-4, 4-6, 6-3
Lost to	Faria J.Gstaad · 14.07.26	6(8)-7, 6-4, 6-4
Lost to	Berrettini M.Wimbledon · 30.06.26	6(7)-7, 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5)
Lost to	De Jong J.French Open · 25.05.26	6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost to	Michelsen A.Geneva · 20.05.26	7-6(1), 7-6(4)

Cobolli this autumnThe top seed, ranked 6, has lost four matches in a row: to Alexei Blockx at the US Open, Learner Tien at the Laver Cup, Roman Safiullin 3:6, 2:6 in Beijing and Adrian Mannarino 1:6, 6:4, 3:6 in Shanghai on 9 October as the favourite. His last win came on 3 September. He had a first-round bye here and has not played for 13 days.

No. 03 · Context

The top seed against a 41-year-old wildcard in the night session on Court Central

Wawrinka this week: The 41-year-old wildcard beat Martin Landaluce 6:3, 6:7(2), 7:6(5) in the first round on Wednesday as the underdog, his first match since the Davis Cup on 18 September. He is 10-21 this season and 2-8 over his last ten matches.
Season and surface: Cobolli is 35-22 this season, 16-13 on hard courts. Wawrinka, ranked 140, is 8-10 on hard courts.
Head to head: Cobolli leads 2-0, both in three sets with tie-breaks: 6:7(6), 7:6(4), 6:3 in Shanghai in 2024 and 6:4, 6:7(2), 7:6(4) at the United Cup in January 2026.
Rest: Wawrinka played three sets with two tie-breaks on Wednesday and is back in the night session a day later. Cobolli is fresh after 13 days off.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Wawrinka held 83.9% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Cobolli 74.1%

Stat	Cobolli	Wawrinka
Season record	35-22 (better)	10-21
On hard courts	16-13 (better)	8-10
Last 10 matches	5-5 (better)	2-8
As favourite	21-15 (better)	4-3
As underdog	13-7 (better)	6-18

Stat	Cobolli	Wawrinka
Matches counted	10 (5-5)	10 (4-6)
Aces per match	5.9	9.5 (better)
Double faults per match	2.9	3.4 (better)
1st serve in	56.3% (better)	56.1%
1st serve points won	67.7%	75.7% (better)
2nd serve points won	51.7%	53.9% (better)
Service games held	74.1%	83.9% (better)
Break points saved	59.1% (better)	55.6%

Stat	Cobolli	Wawrinka
Return points won	36.0% (better)	32.4%
Return games won	18.5% (better)	12.8%
Break points converted	35.1% (better)	27.5%

Form rows: 2026 season to 21 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Flavio Cobolli 13.08.2026–07.10.2026, Stan Wawrinka 06.05.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head2 meetings

Cobolli leads 2-0

2026	CobolliUnited Cup · Hard · RR	6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(4)
2024	CobolliShanghai Masters · Hard · R64	6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-3

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Cobolli vs Wawrinka?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Last Word On Sports	Cobolli in three sets	Other side
Tennis Abstract	Cobolli, 70.6% (tournament forecast)	Other side

Our position2 of 2 back Cobolli. We are on Wawrinka’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Cobolli vs Wawrinka predicted score

Cobolli in three sets, decided on serve

Over his last ten tour matches with stats Wawrinka held 83.9% of his service games and won 75.7% of his first-serve points; Cobolli held only 74.1% and won 67.7% behind his first serve. Wawrinka breaks rarely, 12.8% of return games, so his sets come through tie-breaks, as in both of their meetings. Our main score is 6:4, 6:7, 6:4 Cobolli, a one-game margin, and Wawrinka +4.5 holds with any three-set result. A straight-sets Cobolli win with a tie-break, 7:6, 6:4, holds too. It fails on 6:3, 6:3 or wider.

Predicted score: 2:1; 6:4, 6:7, 6:4
Alternative: 2:0; 7:6, 6:4

No. 08 · Our pick

Our Cobolli vs Wawrinka pick: Stan Wawrinka +4.5 games

Wawrinka +4.5 games

Why analysis only

We see Cobolli in three sets, but Wawrinka is 41 and back on court less than a day after a three-set match with two tie-breaks, so a fade in the third set is a real risk. We are not sure enough of the margin to stake on it.

Our pick67–69%

Our pickStan Wawrinka +4.5 games

Odds1.38

Main scenario2:1

Our scenario: 6:4, 6:7, 6:42:1 in sets
Alternative: 7:6, 6:42:0 in sets

What would change our mind News about Wawrinka's condition after Wednesday's match, or a slow start on serve from him in the first set.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Wawrinka is 41, played three sets on Wednesday and plays again in the night session a day later; a physical drop in the third set can bring a 6:2.
Wawrinka is 10-21 this season and wins only 12.8% of his return games, so he has little margin if his serve dips.
Cobolli is the top seed and ranked 6, with a full 13 days of rest.