Musetti didn't face a break point and still lost to the world No. 277
Our take Musetti's 2026 opponent is his body
Tennis · ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · ATP 250 · First round · Indoor hard
Lorenzo MusettivsMatteo Arnaldi prediction · Lyon Open 2026
Date
19 OCT
Court
Court Central
Order of play
Start time from ESPN; official order of play not checked, not before 16:30 local (15:30 UK)
Status
6:1 6:4
Analysis onlyMUS15:30 UKARNAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Musetti vs Arnaldi?
Lorenzo Musetti plays Matteo Arnaldi in the first round of the ATP 250 in Lyon on Monday. Our pick: Musetti in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 63–66%
- Our pick
- Lorenzo Musetti win
- Odds at publish
- 1.45
- Set by set
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 15:30
Musetti vs Arnaldi at a glance
| Match | Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · First round |
| Surface | Indoor hard |
| Start | 19 OCT · 15:30 UK · 16:30 local |
| Court | Court Central · Start time from ESPN; official order of play not checked |
| Our pick | Lorenzo Musetti win · 1.45 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 63–66% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:3, 4:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | He reached the Cincinnati quarter-finals, losing to Frances Tiafoe. |
No. 02 · Form
Musetti vs Arnaldi: recent form
Musetti has not won since the first round of the US Open; Arnaldi is 3-7 in his last ten
Lorenzo MusettiLast 10: 5-5
- Lost to Jodar R. 1-6, 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Mejia N. 7-6(8), 6-2
- Lost to Jodar R. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Altmaier D. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Zheng M. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Faria J. 7-5, 6-2
- Lost to Tiafoe F. 7-6(2), 7-5
- Won v Fery A. 6-3, 6-3, 7-5
- Lost to Sweeny D. 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Zhou Y. 7-6(7), 3-6, 7-6(1)
Matteo ArnaldiLast 10: 3-7
- Lost to Dzumhur D. 7-6(5), 6(4)-7, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Musetti L. 6-0, 3-1 ret.
- Won v Marozsan F. 7-5, 2-6, 6-4
- Lost to Griekspoor T. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Landaluce M. 6-4, 4-6, 6-4
- Lost to Duckworth J. 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6(8)
- Won v Sakamoto R. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Alcaraz C. 7-6(6), 6-1
- Won v Tomic B. 6-3, 6-1
- Lost to Fritz T. 7-5, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Lost to | Zhou Y.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 7-6(7), 3-6, 7-6(1) |
| Lost to | Sweeny D.US Open · 03.09.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Fery A.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Tiafoe F.Cincinnati · 22.08.26 | 7-6(2), 7-5 |
| Won v | Faria J.Cincinnati · 20.08.26 | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Won v | Zheng M.Cincinnati · 18.08.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Won v | Altmaier D.Cincinnati · 16.08.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Jodar R.Montreal · 07.08.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Mejia N.Montreal · 05.08.26 | 7-6(8), 6-2 |
| Lost to | Jodar R.Washington · 01.08.26 | 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Fritz T.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 7-5, 6-4 |
| Won v | Tomic B.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Alcaraz C.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 03.10.26 | 7-6(6), 6-1 |
| Won v | Sakamoto R.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 30.09.26 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Duckworth J.US Open · 31.08.26 | 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6(8) |
| Lost to | Landaluce M.Cincinnati · 15.08.26 | 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Griekspoor T.Montreal · 07.08.26 | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Marozsan F.Montreal · 05.08.26 | 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Musetti L.Washington · 27.07.26 | 6-0, 3-1 ret. |
| Lost to | Dzumhur D.Umag · 16.07.26 | 7-6(5), 6(4)-7, 7-6(4) |
Musetti since AugustHe reached the Cincinnati quarter-finals, losing to Frances Tiafoe. At the US Open he beat Arthur Fery and lost to Dane Sweeny in four sets. In Shanghai he lost his first match to Yi Zhou 6:7(7), 6:3, 6:7(1).
No. 03 · Context
An Italian derby in the first round in Lyon: the sixth seed against a player he has beaten five times
- Arnaldi this autumn
- In Tokyo he beat Rei Sakamoto and lost to Carlos Alcaraz 6:7(6), 1:6. In Shanghai he beat Bernard Tomic 6:3, 6:1 and lost to Taylor Fritz 5:7, 4:6.
- Season and surface
- Musetti is 20-12 this season and 14-8 on hard courts; he is 19-6 as a favourite. Arnaldi is 20-20, 14-8 on clay and 4-10 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Musetti has won all five meetings, the last in Washington in July, when Arnaldi retired at 0:6, 1:3. Arnaldi has won two sets in those five matches.
- Rest
- Musetti last played ten days ago, Arnaldi nine.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Arnaldi is 4-10 on hard courts this season
| Stat | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 20-12 (better) | 20-20 |
| On hard courts | 14-8 (better) | 4-10 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 (better) | 3-7 |
| As favourite | 19-6 (better) | 10-7 |
| As underdog | 1-6 | 10-13 (better) |
| Stat | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (5-5) | 10 (4-6) |
| Aces per match | 3.7 | 5.7 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 3.9 | 3.4 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 60.5% (better) | 56.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.8% | 73.9% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 53.9% (better) | 45.9% |
| Service games held | 79.0% (better) | 76.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.7% | 61.2% (better) |
| Stat | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 39.2% (better) | 37.0% |
| Return games won | 27.4% (better) | 22.0% |
| Break points converted | 44.4% (better) | 40.3% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 18 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats: Lorenzo Musetti 27.07.2026–07.10.2026, Matteo Arnaldi 13.07.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head5 meetings
Musetti leads 5-0
| 2026 | MusettiWashington · Hard · R32 | 6-0 3-1 RET |
| 2025 | MusettiAustralian Open · Hard · R128 | 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2023 | MusettiBastad · Clay · R16 | 6-3 4-6 7-6(6) |
| 2023 | MusettiRome Masters · Clay · R64 | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019 | MusettiBarletta CH · Clay · R32 | 6-2 6-0 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Musetti vs Arnaldi?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Musetti, 61.9–69% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Musetti in two sets | Same side |
| Last Word On Tennis | Musetti in two sets | Same side |
| Sportskeeda | Musetti in two sets | Same side |
Our position4 of 4 back Musetti. We are on Musetti’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Musetti vs Arnaldi predicted score
Musetti in three sets
Musetti has more variety and won 53.9% of his second-serve points over his last ten tour matches with stats, against Arnaldi’s 45.9%. Short on wins, though, he gave a set away to Yi Zhou in Shanghai, and Arnaldi serves more aces (5.7 a match against 3.7). We expect 6:3, 4:6, 6:4. An Arnaldi win is a real outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:0
- 6:4, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Musetti vs Arnaldi pick: Lorenzo Musetti win
Musetti to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Musetti has lost three of his last ten matches as the favourite, including at 1.04 and 1.20, and he arrives without a win since early September. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick63–66%
Our pickLorenzo Musetti win
Odds1.45
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind A confirmed injury for Musetti.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Musetti lost three of his last ten matches as the favourite, at 1.04 to Dane Sweeny and 1.20 to Yi Zhou among them.
- The market has moved away from him over the last day, from about 1.36 to 1.45.
- One preview mentions physical problems for Musetti; we could not confirm it with a second source.