Musetti didn't face a break point and still lost to the world No. 277
Our take Musetti's 2026 opponent is his body
Tennis · ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · ATP 250 · Second round · Indoor hard
Lorenzo MusettivsMoise Kouame prediction · Lyon Open 2026
Date
21 OCT
Court
Court Central
Order of play
Third singles match on court, not before 7:00 PM, not before 12:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
6:4 6:4
Analysis onlyMUS11:00 UKKOUAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Musetti vs Kouame?
Lorenzo Musetti, the sixth seed, plays the French wildcard Moise Kouame in the second round of the Lyon Open on Wednesday evening. Our pick: Musetti in two sets.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our pick
- 45–50%
- Our pick
- Lorenzo Musetti wins 2:0 in sets
- Odds at publish
- 1.74
- Set by set
- 6:4, 7:5
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Musetti vs Kouame at a glance
| Match | Lorenzo Musetti vs Moise Kouame |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · Second round |
| Surface | Indoor hard |
| Start | 21 OCT · 11:00 UK · 12:00 local |
| Court | Court Central · Third singles match on court, not before 7:00 PM |
| Our pick | Lorenzo Musetti wins 2:0 in sets · 1.74 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 45–50% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:4, 7:5) |
| Main reason | He beat Matteo Arnaldi 6:1, 6:4 in the first round here on Monday. |
No. 02 · Form
Musetti vs Kouame: recent form
Musetti beat Matteo Arnaldi 6:1, 6:4; the 17-year-old Kouame knocked out Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo MusettiLast 10: 6-4
- Won v Mejia N. 7-6(8), 6-2
- Lost to Jodar R. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Altmaier D. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Zheng M. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Faria J. 7-5, 6-2
- Lost to Tiafoe F. 7-6(2), 7-5
- Won v Fery A. 6-3, 6-3, 7-5
- Lost to Sweeny D. 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Zhou Y. 7-6(7), 3-6, 7-6(1)
- Won v Arnaldi M. 6-1, 6-4
Moise KouameLast 10: 5-5
- Lost to Miyoshi K. 4-6, 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Matsuda R. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Peliwo F. 6-1, 4-2 ret.
- Won v Bax F. 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Pacheco Mendez R. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Muller A. 6-4, 6-0
- Lost to Walton A. 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Dedura-Palomero D. 6-1, 6-4
- Lost to Budkov Kjaer N. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Sonego L. 7-6(2), 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Arnaldi M.Lyon · 19.10.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Zhou Y.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 7-6(7), 3-6, 7-6(1) |
| Lost to | Sweeny D.US Open · 03.09.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Fery A.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Tiafoe F.Cincinnati · 22.08.26 | 7-6(2), 7-5 |
| Won v | Faria J.Cincinnati · 20.08.26 | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Won v | Zheng M.Cincinnati · 18.08.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Won v | Altmaier D.Cincinnati · 16.08.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Jodar R.Montreal · 07.08.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Mejia N.Montreal · 05.08.26 | 7-6(8), 6-2 |
| Won v | Sonego L.Lyon · 19.10.26 | 7-6(2), 6-4 |
| Lost to | Budkov Kjaer N.Roanne challenger · 15.10.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Dedura-Palomero D.Roanne challenger · 13.10.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Walton A.Jingshan challenger · 30.09.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Muller A.Chengdu · 24.09.26 | 6-4, 6-0 |
| Lost to | Pacheco Mendez R.Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 19.09.26 | 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Bax F.Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 18.09.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Peliwo F.Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 17.09.26 | 6-1, 4-2 ret. |
| Won v | Matsuda R.Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 15.09.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Miyoshi K.Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 08.09.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
Musetti this autumnHe beat Matteo Arnaldi 6:1, 6:4 in the first round here on Monday. Before that he lost to Zhou Yi in Shanghai 6:7(7), 6:3, 6:7(1) as a heavy favourite, and to Dane Sweeny in the second round of the US Open after winning the first set.
No. 03 · Context
The sixth seed against a French wildcard in front of a home crowd in Lyon
- Kouame this autumn
- The 17-year-old Frenchman beat Lorenzo Sonego 7:6(2), 6:4 in the first round on Monday as the underdog. A week earlier he lost to Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at the Roanne Challenger, and in September he lost to Adam Walton in Jingshan and to Alexandre Muller in Chengdu.
- Season and surface
- Musetti is 21-12 this season, 15-8 on hard courts and 20-6 as a favourite, but three of those six defeats came in his last ten matches. Kouame is 32-21, mostly at Challenger level, and 25-14 on hard courts.
- Ratings and the line
- Our fresh Elo calculation gives Musetti 87.5%, the line 75% and Dimers 71%. The gap of more than 12 points is one of our warning flags.
- Head-to-head
- The two have never met. Both had Tuesday off after their first-round wins on Monday.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Kouame averages 5.8 double faults a match over his last ten tour matches with stats, Musetti 3.5
| Stat | Musetti | Kouame |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 21-12 (better) | 32-21 |
| On hard courts | 15-8 (better) | 25-14 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 (better) | 5-5 |
| As favourite | 20-6 (better) | 19-6 |
| As underdog | 1-6 | 13-14 (better) |
| Stat | Musetti | Kouame |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (6-4) | 10 (4-6) |
| Aces per match | 3.9 | 5.5 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 3.5 (better) | 5.8 |
| 1st serve in | 62.9% (better) | 57.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 70.0% | 70.3% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 55.1% (better) | 46.8% |
| Service games held | 80.9% (better) | 75.2% |
| Break points saved | 62.1% (better) | 60.6% |
| Stat | Musetti | Kouame |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 40.4% (better) | 40.0% |
| Return games won | 29.8% (better) | 28.1% |
| Break points converted | 48.6% (better) | 43.8% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Lorenzo Musetti 02.08.2026–19.10.2026, Moise Kouame 18.08.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Musetti vs Kouame?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Musetti, 71% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Musetti in two sets | Same side |
| The Stats Zone | Musetti 2-0 | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract | Musetti, 87.5% | Same side |
Our position4 of 4 back Musetti. We are on Musetti’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Musetti vs Kouame predicted score
Musetti in two sets
Musetti held 80.9% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats and won 55.1% of his second-serve points; Kouame held 75.2%, won 46.8% behind his second serve and averaged 5.8 double faults. On return the two are close, about 29% of return games each. Musetti's variety and slice should draw errors from the young attacker, and we see 6:4, 7:5. The alternative is three sets if the crowd carries Kouame through a tie-break, as against Sonego.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:4, 7:5
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:3
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Musetti vs Kouame pick: Lorenzo Musetti wins 2:0 in sets
Musetti 2:0
Why analysis only
Our Elo gives Musetti 87.5% while the line gives him 75%: a gap that big tells us the market knows something the ratings do not, an injury-hit season and two recent defeats to players outside the top 100, so we are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick45–50%
Our pickLorenzo Musetti wins 2:0 in sets
Odds1.74
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 7:52:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:32:1 in sets
What would change our mind A medical time-out or any news about Musetti's fitness before the match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Musetti has lost two of his last three matches to players ranked outside the top 100: Zhou Yi and Dane Sweeny.
- Kouame has the Lyon crowd behind him and already beat Lorenzo Sonego here.
- The line is far below our ratings for Musetti, a sign the market is cautious about his form.