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Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · WTA 500 · First round · Hard

Belinda BencicvsJelena Ostapenko prediction · Ningbo Open 2026

Date
20 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Third match on court, after Putintseva v Shnaider and Paolini v Kalinina, not before 13:00 local (06:00 UK)
Status
6:3 1:1
Analysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Bencic vs Ostapenko?

Belinda Bencic plays Jelena Ostapenko in the first round of the Ningbo Open on Tuesday. Our pick: Bencic to win in three sets, analysis only.

Predicted score
2:1
Our pick
54–57%
Why analysis only18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Belinda Bencic win
Odds at publish
1.69
Set by set
6:4, 3:6, 6:4
Not before (UK)
06:00

Bencic vs Ostapenko at a glance

MatchBelinda Bencic vs Jelena Ostapenko
TournamentWTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · First round
SurfaceHard
Start20 OCT · 06:00 UK · 13:00 local
CourtCenter Court · Third match on court, after Putintseva v Shnaider and Paolini v Kalinina
Our pickBelinda Bencic win · 1.69 · analysis only
Our estimate54–57%
Predicted score2:1 (6:4, 3:6, 6:4)
Main reasonIn Beijing she beat Anastasia Zakharova 6:1, 7:6(3) and lost to Ann Li 4:6, 3:6.
No. 02 · Form

Bencic vs Ostapenko: recent form

Ostapenko reached the Wuhan semi-finals last week; Bencic has lost four of her last five

Belinda BencicLast 10: 4-5
  1. Lost to Gauff C. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
  2. Won v Stephens S. 6-3, 6-1
  3. Won v Townsend T. 6(5)-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
  4. Won v Eala A. 6-4, 6-0
  5. Lost to Boisson L. 6-3
  6. Lost to Putintseva Y. 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
  7. Won v Zakharova A. 6-1, 7-6(3)
  8. Lost to Li A. 6-4, 6-3
  9. Lost to Kartal S. 6-0, 7-5
Jelena OstapenkoLast 10: 6-4
  1. Lost to Maria T. 4-6, 6-1, 6-2
  2. Won v Zakharova A. 6-4, 6-1
  3. Lost to Preston T. 6-4, 6-1
  4. Won v Badosa P. 7-6(5), 7-5
  5. Lost to Mertens E. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
  6. Won v Kasatkina D. 6-1, 6-1
  7. Won v Pegula J. 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-3
  8. Won v Fernandez L. 6-1, 1-6, 6-4
  9. Won v Shnaider D. 7-6(6), 6-1
  10. Lost to Kartal S. 7-6(9), 7-6(5)

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Belinda Bencic
Lost toKartal S.Wuhan · 14.10.266-0, 7-5
Lost toLi A.Beijing · 05.10.266-4, 6-3
Won vZakharova A.Beijing · 03.10.266-1, 7-6(3)
Lost toPutintseva Y.US Open · 01.09.264-6, 7-5, 6-3
Lost toBoisson L.Cincinnati WTA · 16.08.266-3
Won vEala A.Toronto WTA · 10.08.266-4, 6-0
Won vTownsend T.Toronto WTA · 08.08.266(5)-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
Won vStephens S.Toronto WTA · 05.08.266-3, 6-1
Lost toGauff C.Wimbledon · 05.07.264-6, 6-3, 6-4
Jelena Ostapenko
Lost toKartal S.Wuhan · 17.10.267-6(9), 7-6(5)
Won vShnaider D.Wuhan · 16.10.267-6(6), 6-1
Won vFernandez L.Wuhan · 15.10.266-1, 1-6, 6-4
Won vPegula J.Wuhan · 14.10.262-6, 7-6(7), 6-3
Won vKasatkina D.Wuhan · 13.10.266-1, 6-1
Lost toMertens E.Beijing · 05.10.266-2, 3-6, 6-3
Won vBadosa P.Beijing · 03.10.267-6(5), 7-5
Lost toPreston T.Seoul WTA · 24.09.266-4, 6-1
Won vZakharova A.Seoul WTA · 22.09.266-4, 6-1
Lost toMaria T.US Open · 02.09.264-6, 6-1, 6-2
Bencic this autumnIn Beijing she beat Anastasia Zakharova 6:1, 7:6(3) and lost to Ann Li 4:6, 3:6. In Wuhan she lost her first match to Sonay Kartal 0:6, 5:7 on 14 October. Before that she lost in the first round of the US Open to Yulia Putintseva in three sets.
No. 03 · Context

The 2021 Olympic champion against the 2017 Roland Garros champion in the first round in Ningbo

Ostapenko in Wuhan
She beat Daria Kasatkina 6:1, 6:1, Jessica Pegula 2:6, 7:6(7), 6:3, Leylah Fernandez 6:1, 1:6, 6:4 and Diana Shnaider 7:6(6), 6:1, then lost the semi-final to Sonay Kartal 6:7(9), 6:7(5) on 17 October: five matches and 12 sets in five days.
Season and surface
Bencic is 29-15 this season, 17-9 on hard courts and 26-11 as a favourite, but five of her last ten matches as a favourite ended in defeat. Ostapenko is 27-21 and 15-14 on hard courts.
Head to head
Bencic leads 2-1. Ostapenko won at Indian Wells in 2018 in three sets; Bencic won at the Australian Open in 2020, 7:5, 7:5, and again in the first round in Melbourne in 2025, 6:3, 7:6(6).
Rest
Bencic has had six days off since Wuhan. Ostapenko has had three days since her semi-final.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Bencic holds 73.9% of her service games this season, Ostapenko 65.2%

StatBencicOstapenko
Season record29-15 (better)27-21
On hard courts17-9 (better)15-14
Last 10 matches4-66-4 (better)
As favourite26-11 (better)18-8
As underdog3-4 (better)9-13
StatBencicOstapenko
Matches4048
Aces per match1.94.2 (better)
Double faults per match3.4 (better)6.4
1st serve in64.0% (better)56.7%
1st serve points won67.2%67.5% (better)
2nd serve points won49.7% (better)42.1%
Service games held73.9% (better)65.2%
Break points saved56.6% (better)53.3%
StatBencicOstapenko
Return points won45.7% (better)44.9%
Return games won39.2% (better)38.7%
Break points converted49.1%49.9% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head3 meetings

Bencic leads 2-1

2025BencicAustralian Open · Hard · R1286-3 7-6(6)
2020BencicAustralian Open · Hard · R647-5 7-5
2018OstapenkoIndian Wells · Hard · R646-4 3-6 6-1
No. 06 · Scenario & score

Bencic vs Ostapenko predicted score

Bencic in three sets

This season Bencic holds 73.9% of her service games and wins 49.7% of her second-serve points; Ostapenko holds 65.2%, wins 42.1% behind her second serve and hits 6.4 double faults a match. On return they are level: 39.2% and 38.7% of return games won. Ostapenko swings sets fast in both directions, so we expect a long match: 6:4, 3:6, 6:4 Bencic. Ostapenko in two sets is the alternative if her serve works as it did against Shnaider.

Predicted score
2:1
6:4, 3:6, 6:4
Alternative
0:2
4:6, 4:6
No. 07 · Our pick

Our Bencic vs Ostapenko pick: Belinda Bencic win

Bencic to win, analysis only

Why analysis only

Both results are real here: Ostapenko has won four of her last five matches, Bencic has lost four of her last five. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.

Our pick54–57%
Our pickBelinda Bencic win
Odds1.69
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
6:4, 3:6, 6:42:1 in sets
Alternative
4:6, 4:60:2 in sets

What would change our mind News that Ostapenko has fully recovered from her week in Wuhan would make this a coin flip; any sign of fatigue in her first set would strengthen our pick.

No. 08 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Bencic has lost four of her last five and won only five games against Kartal in Wuhan.
  2. Ostapenko arrives in rhythm after wins over Pegula and Shnaider last week.
  3. The betting market gives Bencic only about 56%, well below the 65.6% of her Elo rating: it is pricing in her recent form.