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Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · WTA 500 · Second round · Hard

Iva JovicvsJasmine Paolini prediction · Ningbo Open 2026

Date
22 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
First match on court, not before 13:00 local (06:00 UK)
Status
6:4 6:3
Analysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Jovic vs Paolini?

Iva Jovic, the fourth seed, opens her Ningbo Open against Jasmine Paolini in the second round on Thursday, the first match on Center Court. Our pick is Jovic to win in three sets, as an analysis without a bet.

Predicted score
2:1
Our pick
62–64%
Why analysis only18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Iva Jovic win
Odds at publish
1.47
Set by set
6:3, 4:6, 6:3
Not before (UK)
06:00

Jovic vs Paolini at a glance

MatchIva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolini
TournamentWTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · Second round
SurfaceHard
Start22 OCT · 06:00 UK · 13:00 local
CourtCenter Court · First match on court
Our pickIva Jovic win · 1.47 · analysis only
Our estimate62–64%
Predicted score2:1 (6:3, 4:6, 6:3)
Main reasonShe won the Guadalajara title on 20 September, beating Peyton Stearns 6:4, 6:2 in the final.
No. 02 · Form

Jovic vs Paolini: recent form

Jovic lost her last match to Maja Chwalinska; Paolini beat Anhelina Kalinina 6:2, 7:5 on Tuesday

Iva JovicLast 10: 7-3
  1. Lost to Gauff C. 6-1, 6-4
  2. Won v Sonmez Z. 7-6(5), 6-4
  3. Won v Frech M. 6-2, 6-1
  4. Won v Bucsa C. 6-4, 6-1
  5. Won v Stearns P. 6-4, 6-2
  6. Won v Dart H. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
  7. Won v Rakhimova K. 6-1, 7-5
  8. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-1, 6-3
  9. Won v Yastremska D. 6-4, 6-1
  10. Lost to Chwalinska M. 6-4, 6-1
Jasmine PaoliniLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Erjavec V. 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
  2. Won v Stefanini L. 6-4, 6-1
  3. Lost to Cirstea S. 6-3, 6-3
  4. Won v Zheng Q. 6-3, 7-6(4)
  5. Lost to Svitolina E. 6-2, 6-2
  6. Lost to Snigur D. 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2
  7. Won v Bejlek S. 6-3, 6-4
  8. Won v Bartunkova N. 7-6(5), 6-3
  9. Lost to Kartal S. 6-2, 6-0
  10. Won v Kalinina A. 6-2, 7-5

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Iva Jovic
Lost toChwalinska M.Wuhan · 15.10.266-4, 6-1
Won vYastremska D.Wuhan · 14.10.266-4, 6-1
Lost toSwiatek I.Beijing · 07.10.266-1, 6-3
Won vRakhimova K.Beijing · 05.10.266-1, 7-5
Won vDart H.Beijing · 03.10.262-6, 6-3, 6-3
Won vStearns P.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 20.09.266-4, 6-2
Won vBucsa C.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 19.09.266-4, 6-1
Won vFrech M.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 17.09.266-2, 6-1
Won vSonmez Z.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 16.09.267-6(5), 6-4
Lost toGauff C.US Open · 08.09.266-1, 6-4
Jasmine Paolini
Won vKalinina A.Ningbo WTA · 20.10.266-2, 7-5
Lost toKartal S.Wuhan · 15.10.266-2, 6-0
Won vBartunkova N.Wuhan · 14.10.267-6(5), 6-3
Won vBejlek S.Wuhan · 12.10.266-3, 6-4
Lost toSnigur D.Beijing · 02.10.263-6, 7-6(5), 6-2
Lost toSvitolina E.Billie Jean King Cup · 26.09.266-2, 6-2
Won vZheng Q.Billie Jean King Cup · 24.09.266-3, 7-6(4)
Lost toCirstea S.US Open · 04.09.266-3, 6-3
Won vStefanini L.US Open · 02.09.266-4, 6-1
Won vErjavec V.US Open · 30.08.266-3, 3-6, 6-4
Jovic this autumnShe won the Guadalajara title on 20 September, beating Peyton Stearns 6:4, 6:2 in the final. In Beijing she reached the fourth round and lost to Iga Swiatek 1:6, 3:6; in Wuhan she beat Dayana Yastremska 6:4, 6:1 and lost to Maja Chwalinska 4:6, 1:6 as the favourite. She had a first-round bye here.
No. 03 · Context

The 18-year-old world number 12 against the 2024 Roland Garros and Wimbledon finalist

Paolini this autumn
She beat Anhelina Kalinina 6:2, 7:5 in the first round here on Tuesday. In Wuhan she beat Sara Bejlek and Nikola Bartunkova, then lost to Sonay Kartal 2:6, 0:6. At the Billie Jean King Cup she beat Zheng Qinwen and lost to Elina Svitolina 2:6, 2:6.
Season and surface
Jovic is 41-21 this season, 27-12 on hard courts and 38-11 as a favourite. Paolini is 22-17 and 13-10 on hard courts.
Head to head
Paolini leads 2-1: Indian Wells 2025 (7:6, 1:6, 6:3) and the US Open 2025 (6:3, 6:3) went to Paolini, the Australian Open 2026 (6:2, 7:6) to Jovic.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Jovic holds 70.0% of her service games, Paolini 64.5%

StatJovicPaolini
Season record41-21 (better)22-17
On hard courts27-12 (better)13-10
Last 10 matches7-3 (better)6-4
As favourite38-11 (better)17-13
As underdog3-105-4 (better)
StatJovicPaolini
Matches6035
Aces per match2.3 (better)1.6
Double faults per match2.32.3
1st serve in60.6%66.3% (better)
1st serve points won65.1% (better)60.7%
2nd serve points won49.3% (better)46.6%
Service games held70.0% (better)64.5%
Break points saved58.1%60.1% (better)
StatJovicPaolini
Return points won46.1% (better)44.1%
Return games won41.2% (better)37.2%
Break points converted50.2% (better)45.1%

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head3 meetings

Paolini leads 2-1

2026JovicAustralian Open · Hard · R326-2 7-6(3)
2025PaoliniUs Open · Hard · R646-3 6-3
2025PaoliniIndian Wells · Hard · R647-6(3) 1-6 6-3
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Jovic vs Paolini?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
DimersJovic, 59%Same side
Tennis AbstractJovic, 63.4% (our fresh Elo)Same side
Our position2 of 2 back Jovic. We are on Jovic’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Jovic vs Paolini predicted score

Jovic in three sets

Jovic is the better player on both serve and return this season: 70.0% of service games held and 41.2% of return games won, against 64.5% and 37.2% for Paolini. Paolini knows how to drag younger players into long rallies and leads the meetings, so we expect her to take a set. Our line is 6:3, 4:6, 6:3 Jovic; a straight-sets Jovic win is the alternative.

Predicted score
2:1
6:3, 4:6, 6:3
Alternative
2:0
6:3, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick

Our Jovic vs Paolini pick: Iva Jovic win

Jovic to win the match

Why analysis only

Jovic lost two of her last three matches without much of a fight, and Paolini leads their meetings 2-1, so we are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.

Our pick62–64%
Our pickIva Jovic win
Odds1.47
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
6:3, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
Alternative
6:3, 6:42:0 in sets

What would change our mind If Paolini holds serve as well as she did against Kalinina in the second set, the match turns her way.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Jovic lost two of her last three matches, to Iga Swiatek and to Maja Chwalinska, without winning a set.
  2. Paolini leads the head-to-head 2-1 and already has a match on this court.
  3. Jovic has not played for a week after a first-round bye.