Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · WTA 500 · First round · Hard
Jasmine PaolinivsAnhelina Kalinina prediction · Ningbo Open 2026
Date
20 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Second match on court, after Putintseva v Shnaider, not before 13:00 local (06:00 UK)
Status
6:2 7:5
Analysis onlyPAO06:00 UKKALAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Paolini vs Kalinina?
Jasmine Paolini plays Anhelina Kalinina in the first round of the Ningbo Open on Tuesday. Our pick is Paolini to win, most likely 6:4, 6:3, as an analysis without a bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our pick
- 62–65%
- Our pick
- Jasmine Paolini win
- Odds at publish
- 1.46
- Set by set
- 6:4, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 06:00
Paolini vs Kalinina at a glance
| Match | Jasmine Paolini vs Anhelina Kalinina |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · First round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 20 OCT · 06:00 UK · 13:00 local |
| Court | Center Court · Second match on court, after Putintseva v Shnaider |
| Our pick | Jasmine Paolini win · 1.46 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 62–65% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:4, 6:3) |
| Main reason | In Wuhan she beat Sara Bejlek and Nikola Bartunkova, then lost to Sonay Kartal 6:2, 6:0 on 15 October. |
No. 02 · Form
Paolini vs Kalinina: recent form
Paolini has lost four of her last six; Kalinina got into the draw as a lucky loser
Jasmine PaoliniLast 10: 5-5
- Lost to Kostyuk M. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Erjavec V. 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
- Won v Stefanini L. 6-4, 6-1
- Lost to Cirstea S. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Zheng Q. 6-3, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Svitolina E. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Snigur D. 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2
- Won v Bejlek S. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Bartunkova N. 7-6(5), 6-3
- Lost to Kartal S. 6-2, 6-0
Anhelina KalininaLast 10: 4-6
- Won v Vidmanova D. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Navarro E. 3-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Sakatsume H. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Otzipka J. 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Grant T. 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Muchova K. 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Tjen J. 2-6, 7-5, 6-4
- Lost to Kartal S. 7-5, 6-3
- Won v Waltert S. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
- Lost to Sasnovich A. 5-3 ret.
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Lost to | Kartal S.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-2, 6-0 |
| Won v | Bartunkova N.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 7-6(5), 6-3 |
| Won v | Bejlek S.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Snigur D.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2 |
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Billie Jean King Cup · 26.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Zheng Q.Billie Jean King Cup · 24.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Cirstea S.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Stefanini L.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Erjavec V.US Open · 30.08.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Kostyuk M.Wimbledon · 08.07.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Sasnovich A.Ningbo WTA · 18.10.26 | 5-3 ret. |
| Won v | Waltert S.Ningbo WTA · 17.10.26 | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Kartal S.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Tjen J.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 2-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Muchova K.Billie Jean King Cup · 27.09.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Grant T.Billie Jean King Cup · 26.09.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Otzipka J.Billie Jean King Cup · 24.09.26 | 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Sakatsume H.US Open · 31.08.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Navarro E.Cincinnati WTA · 15.08.26 | 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Vidmanova D.Cincinnati WTA · 13.08.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
Paolini this autumnIn Wuhan she beat Sara Bejlek and Nikola Bartunkova, then lost to Sonay Kartal 6:2, 6:0 on 15 October. In Beijing she lost to Daria Snigur in three sets; at the Billie Jean King Cup she beat Qinwen Zheng and lost to Elina Svitolina.
No. 03 · Context
A former world No. 4 against a clay-court specialist on a hard court in Ningbo
- Kalinina this autumn
- She lost in the first round in Beijing and Wuhan. In Ningbo qualifying she beat Simona Waltert in three sets; her match with Aliaksandra Sasnovich on 18 October ended with her retirement in the first set, and she entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
- Season and surface
- Paolini is 21-17 this season and 12-10 on hard courts, but only 16-13 as a favourite. Kalinina is 42-24, with 32 of those wins on clay; on hard courts she is 6-10.
- Head to head
- Paolini won their only meeting, in Marseille qualifying in 2017 on clay, 6:2, 6:3.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Paolini saves 60.1% of the break points she faces this season, Kalinina 52.3%
| Stat | Paolini | Kalinina |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 21-17 | 42-24 (better) |
| On hard courts | 12-10 (better) | 6-10 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 (better) | 4-6 |
| As favourite | 16-13 | 40-15 (better) |
| As underdog | 5-4 (better) | 2-9 |
| Stat | Paolini | Kalinina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 25 |
| Aces per match | 1.6 (better) | 1.2 |
| Double faults per match | 2.3 (better) | 4.3 |
| 1st serve in | 66.3% (better) | 65.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 60.7% (better) | 59.6% |
| 2nd serve points won | 46.6% (better) | 44.9% |
| Service games held | 64.5% (better) | 60.0% |
| Break points saved | 60.1% (better) | 52.3% |
| Stat | Paolini | Kalinina |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 44.1% | 45.6% (better) |
| Return games won | 37.2% | 39.2% (better) |
| Break points converted | 45.1% | 46.3% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Paolini leads 1-0
| 2017 | PaoliniMarseille · Clay · Q | 6-2 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Paolini vs Kalinina?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Paolini, 63% | Same side |
Our position1 of 1 back Paolini. We are on Paolini’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Paolini vs Kalinina predicted score
Paolini in two sets
On return the two are close (37.2% and 39.2% of return games won), so the match turns on serve and break points. Paolini holds 64.5% of her service games and saves 60.1% of break points; Kalinina holds 60.0% and saves 52.3%, with 4.3 double faults a match. We expect 6:4, 6:3 Paolini; a three-set match is the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:4, 6:3
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Paolini vs Kalinina pick: Jasmine Paolini win
Paolini to win the match
Why analysis only
The price on Paolini is above the range we stake at, and her form this autumn does not give us enough certainty about the result.
Our pick62–65%
Our pickJasmine Paolini win
Odds1.46
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 6:32:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind Clear news that Kalinina is fully fit after the retirement in qualifying would make this closer to an even match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Paolini has lost four of her last six matches, including 2:6, 0:6 to Sonay Kartal in Wuhan.
- She is only 16-13 as a favourite this season.
- Kalinina wins more of her return games than Paolini this season (39.2% against 37.2%).