Carlos Alcaraz · Juan Manuel Cerúndolo · Jannik Sinner · Shanghai Masters

Spain have lost four Shanghai finals. Alcaraz arrives with Sinner gone

By the Data Desk · Published 9 OCT 09:40

Rafael Nadal lost two Shanghai finals, David Ferrer and Roberto Bautista Agut one each, and no Spaniard has ever lifted the trophy. Carlos Alcaraz starts his campaign on Saturday against Argentina's Juan Manuel Cerúndolo, and this time Jannik Sinner, the 2024 champion, is not in the draw.

Spain's four lost finals: Nadal in 2009 and 2017, Ferrer in 2011, Bautista Agut in 2016.
Alcaraz, the No 2 seed, won Tokyo on Tuesday, his third title of 2026 and his first since a wrist injury.
Sinner ended his season on 6 October with a right-knee problem and misses Shanghai and Turin.

Why it mattersShanghai is the one Masters 1000 that has always beaten Spain, and this year the man who won it in 2024 is at home with his knee. Alcaraz will rarely get a cleaner draw at it.

The list hurts in Spain. Nikolay Davydenko beat Nadal in the first final in 2009, Andy Murray beat Ferrer in 2011 and Bautista Agut in 2016, and Roger Federer beat Nadal in 2017. Since then the title has gone to Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Hubert Hurkacz, Sinner and last year to Valentin Vacherot of Monaco, a qualifier ranked 204th.

Alcaraz's own record here is modest for a player with 27 titles. As top seed in 2023 he lost in the fourth round to Grigor Dimitrov, in 2024 he went out in the quarter-finals to Tomas Machac, and last year he withdrew with an ankle problem after winning Tokyo. This is his third appearance.

He arrives in form. On Tuesday he beat Jiri Lehecka 7-6, 6-4 to keep his Tokyo title, after almost five months out with a wrist injury before the US Open. He is the No 2 seed behind Alexander Zverev, and his possible fourth-round opponent is Vacherot himself.

Cerúndolo, 24 and ranked 55th, beat the Colombian qualifier Nicolás Mejía 6-4, 6-4 on Thursday to set up the match. It is their first meeting at tour level: the only previous one was at the 2021 Next Gen Finals in Milan, which Alcaraz won. The order of play for Saturday has not been published yet.

Our take

Spain's best Shanghai chance in 17 years

Our editorial team thinks this is the best chance a Spaniard has had in Shanghai since the tournament began in 2009: Sinner is out for the year, and Alcaraz comes in with a title from Tokyo, not from a long break. But his best result here is still a quarter-final, so we would not call him the favourite until he gets past the fourth round, where Vacherot could be waiting. If he loses before then, we will treat Shanghai as his weak spot, not a blip, and say so.

Sinner out: what it means for Turin →Tennis predictions →

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