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Novak Djokovic · Alex de Minaur · Jannik Sinner · ATP Finals

Sinner's season is over, and that puts Djokovic in a Turin place

By the Data Desk · ·

Jannik Sinner has ended his season with a knee problem but still sits second in the Race to Turin, so his place at the ATP Finals passes to the next man in line. On this week’s Race, that is Novak Djokovic: ninth on 2,840 points, 150 ahead of Alex de Minaur, who retired injured in Tuesday’s Beijing final.

  • Race to Turin: Medvedev is eighth on 3,030, Djokovic ninth on 2,840, de Minaur 10th on 2,690.
  • Under ATP rules a player who withdraws is replaced by the next highest on the list, so ninth now means a place in Turin.
  • Shanghai gives 1,000 points to the winner; Djokovic (seed 10) and de Minaur (seed 9) both start in the second round.
Why it mattersThe ATP Finals in Turin (15–22 November) take eight players. Sinner’s withdrawal turns the fight for the last place into a race between a 39-year-old who just won Beijing and a rival waiting for scans.

Sinner announced on Tuesday that his season is over, which also guarantees Alexander Zverev the year-end No 1. His 7,950 points stay in the Race, but ATP rules replace any player who withdraws with the next highest on the list. With Sinner out, the eight places go to Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe, Arthur Fils, Daniil Medvedev and, as things stand, Djokovic.

The Grand Slam rule does not change the picture this year. It gives a major winner ranked between eighth and 20th priority over the eighth place, but the four majors of 2026 went to Alcaraz, Zverev twice and Sinner, all in the top three.

Djokovic arrives in Shanghai with his 102nd title, won in Beijing without needing a match point in the semi-final or the final. De Minaur arrives with an adductor injury that forced him to retire in that final at 7-6, 0-1, and he planned scans in Shanghai before deciding whether to play.

Behind them the gaps are small. Rafael Jodar is 11th on 2,519, Taylor Fritz 12th on 2,490 and Jakub Mensik 13th on 2,405, so one deep run in Shanghai can move anyone from 10th to 13th into the place.

Our take

Sinner's knee helps Djokovic most

The obvious winner of Sinner’s withdrawal is Zverev, but he was close to No 1 anyway. Our editorial team thinks the bigger gain is Djokovic’s: at 39, a day after his 102nd title, he is inside the Turin places and his closest rival is waiting for scans. We expect him to still be in the top nine of the Race when Shanghai ends. If de Minaur plays and reaches the quarter-finals, the gap of 150 points is gone, and we will update this view.

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Updates

  1. Shanghai went against Djokovic. Three days after his Beijing title he lost 6-4, 6-3 to Hubert Hurkacz in the second round on Friday, Hurkacz's first win in nine meetings. Alex de Minaur, 150 points behind him before Shanghai, is in the third round after Alex Molcan withdrew. We said de Minaur reaching the quarter-finals would close the gap; that is now two wins away, and according to L'Équipe Djokovic plans to play the Paris Masters to defend his place.
  2. Confirmed The ninth place has changed hands. Rafael Jódar beat Casper Ruud 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the Shanghai quarter-finals on Friday and moves to ninth in the Live Race on 2,909 points, ahead of Alex de Minaur (2,880) and Djokovic (2,840), the ATP reports. With Sinner out, that is the last Turin place as things stand. Djokovic needs points in Paris to take it back, and Jódar can add more in Saturday's semi-final against Medvedev or Paul.
  3. Our 7 October take did not hold: we expected Djokovic to still be in the top nine when Shanghai ended, and he is 11th in the Live Race on 2,840 points, behind Rafael Jódar (ninth, 3,159) and Alex de Minaur (2,880). He has accepted a wild card for the Basel ATP 500, where the main draw starts on 26 October, his first appearance there since 2011 (ATP, Reuters), and a final there, worth 330 points, would on its own lift him past today's ninth-place total. Then comes the Paris Masters, which L'Équipe says he plans to play.
  4. After Shanghai, Djokovic is still 11th in the Live Race on 2,840 points, 319 behind Rafael Jódar in ninth (3,159), who lost Sunday's final to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ATP). He does not play this week; his next event is the Basel wild card, his first Basel since 2011, so he needs a deep run there and in Paris.
Sources