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Double · No. 51 · 4 OCTWon

Portugal vs Norway + Ireland vs Israel

  1. 01Portugal vs NorwayPortugal or draw · Won
  2. 02Ireland vs IsraelIreland or draw · Won
Total odds
1.60
Stake
3.83 units
P&L
+2.30 units
Published 4 OCT 09:0018+Play responsibly
Why this betTwo home sides, both covered against the draw. Portugal had 9 points from 9 and had won the first meeting in Oslo; double chance kept the leg alive in a 1:1, the alternative score we had flagged. Ireland faced Israel in the same group, in a match moved to a neutral venue. Total odds 1.60.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · 4 OCT · 19:45 UK

Portugal vs Norway

Portugal or drawWon
Why this pickPortugal took 9 points from 9 and beat Norway in the first meeting, but 1:1 is a realistic alternative. Double chance wins in both scenarios.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:1
Our estimate · Portugal or draw
78–82%

Form · Portugal 9 from 9. Norway 3 from 9.

Portugal9 pts
  • Winvs Wales1:0
  • Winvs Norway2:1
  • Winvs Denmark4:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.33
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
66.7%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
66.7%
Norway3 pts
  • Winvs Denmark3:2
  • Lossvs Portugal1:2
  • Lossvs Wales1:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
100%

Lineups · Expected

  • Portugal
  • OutCristiano Ronaldo
  • DoubtFrancisco Conceição
  • FormGonçalo Ramosscored in 2 in a row
  • Norway
  • OutTorbjørn HeggemSuspended

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4

Our positionWe agree on the favourite. We add the draw because 1:1 is a real scenario, and we would rather win the leg than chase a bigger price.

Scenario & score

Portugal on the ball, Norway on the break. Portugal should have more of the ball. Norway are dangerous in quick transitions and on crosses towards Haaland.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Portugal’s edge over Norway isn’t proven: the first meeting turned on a defensive error.
  2. 021:1 is a realistic outcome. It loses the straight win, which is why we cover the draw.
Key factPortugal’s winner in the first meeting came from an error playing out from the back. Haaland had several chances.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League

Ireland vs Israel

Ireland or drawWon

No full analysis was published for this match.