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Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · League A · Group A4 · Porto
PortugalvsNorway prediction
Score
2:1
Date
4 OCT
City
Porto
Status
Full time
POR2:1NORFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Portugal vs Norway?
Portugal should win this, but a 1:1 is the scenario we can’t rule out. So we take Portugal or draw: it wins if Portugal win and if it ends level. One leg of our double, at 1.21.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 78–82%
- Market
- Portugal or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 51 · total odds 1.60
- Leg odds
- 1.21
Portugal vs Norway at a glance
| Match | Portugal vs Norway |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Nations League · League A · Group A4 |
| Kick-off | 4 OCT · 19:45 UK · 19:45 Porto |
| Venue | Estádio do Dragão, Porto |
| Our pick | Portugal or draw · 1.21 · Double No. 51 · total odds 1.60 |
| Our estimate | 78–82% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | Portugal won all three group games and beat Norway in Oslo, so they are the stronger side. |
No. 04 · Form
Portugal vs Norway: recent form
Portugal 9 from 9. Norway 3 from 9.
Portugal9 pts
- Winvs Wales1:0
- Winvs Norway2:1
- Winvs Denmark4:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.33
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 66.7%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 66.7%
Norway3 pts
- Winvs Denmark3:2
- Lossvs Portugal1:2
- Lossvs Wales1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.67
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Key factPortugal’s winner in the first meeting came from an error playing out from the back. Haaland had several chances.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Portugal vs Norway team news
Portugal without Ronaldo. Norway without Heggem.
Portugal
- OutCristiano Ronaldo
- DoubtFrancisco Conceição
- FormGonçalo Ramosscored in 2 in a row
Norway
- OutTorbjørn HeggemSuspended
TacticsFernandes works between the lines for Portugal. Norway’s threat runs through Ødegaard’s passing, Nusa’s runs and Haaland’s finishing.
In the news
Portugal come from behind to beat Norway 2:1 and reach the Nations League quarter-finals first
Our take A winning double, and a new question for the next round
Ronaldo walks out of Portugal’s camp: what it means against Norway
Our take Portugal’s attack no longer runs through Ronaldo
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Portugal vs Norway?
Everyone backs Portugal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Portugal 2:1 | Same side |
| Football Whispers | Portugal 2:1, both teams score | Same side |
| SportyTrader | Portugal win, 58.2% | Same side |
| Forebet | Portugal edge, over 2.5 goals | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the favourite. We add the draw because 1:1 is a real scenario, and we would rather win the leg than chase a bigger price.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Portugal vs Norway predicted score
Portugal on the ball, Norway on the break.
Portugal should have more of the ball. Norway are dangerous in quick transitions and on crosses towards Haaland.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
POR
NOR
Likely scorers
- Gonçalo RamosAfter lineups
- Erling HaalandAfter lineups
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Portugal vs Norway pick: Portugal or draw
Portugal or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Portugal won all three group games and beat Norway in Oslo, so they are the stronger side. Norway have scored in every group game, though, and Haaland gets chances against anyone, which makes a 1:1 a real outcome. Portugal or draw wins in both of those scenarios, and that is exactly why we chose it.
Our probability78–82%
Our pickPortugal or draw
Leg odds1.21
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A heavily rotated Portugal side once the lineups are out.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 1.63 | 61.3% |
| Portugal draw no bet | 1.28 | 78.1% |
| Portugal or draw | 1.21 | 82.6% |
| Portugal −1 handicap | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 69.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.38 | 72.5% |
Odds snapshot 4 OCT 08:45 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Two reasons we cut confidence.
- Portugal’s edge over Norway isn’t proven: the first meeting turned on a defensive error.
- 1:1 is a realistic outcome. It loses the straight win, which is why we cover the draw.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Portugal or draw is one leg of our double No. 51. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.60, 3.83 units.
Open double No. 51 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · confidence 7.2
- Review against ourselves: confidence 7.2 → 6.4, verdict Bet
- Full time: Portugal 2:1 Norway · Portugal or draw won
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.21
- Happened
- 2:1Portugal win
Won
Read next
- MethodologyHow we build every prediction
- TrackerEvery call, won or lost
- Nations LeagueAll Nations League predictions
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.