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Single · No. 55 · 9 OCTLost

Djokovic vs Hurkacz

  1. 01Novak Djokovic vs Hubert HurkaczNovak Djokovic win1.50 · Lost
Total odds
1.50
Stake
2.00 units
P&L
-2.00 units
Our estimate
66–70%
Published 9 OCT 06:13
Odds: average of 33 popular bookmakers, 9 OCT 10:2918+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Novak Djokovic to beat Hubert Hurkacz in the Shanghai Masters second round: he is 8-0 against him, and Hurkacz retired hurt in the Beijing semi-final four days ago.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 9 OCT · 11:00 UK

Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz

Novak Djokovic win1.50Lost
Why this pickDjokovic leads the head-to-head 8-0 and has won six of their seven tie-breaks; he won the Beijing title on Tuesday, while Hurkacz retired there with an adductor problem. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
66–70%

Form · Djokovic won Beijing; Hurkacz retired there in the semi-final

Novak DjokovicLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Safiullin R. 7-6(6), 6-3, 3-6, 6-3
  2. Won v Auger Aliassime F. 7-6(10), 3-6, 6-3, 6(4)-7, 7-6(4)
  3. Lost to Sinner J. 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
  4. Lost to Tirante T. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
  5. Lost to Navone M. 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1
  6. Won v Borges N. 6-3, 7-6(2)
  7. Won v Yunchaokete B. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2
  8. Won v Zverev A. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
  9. Won v Medvedev D. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
  10. Won v De Minaur A. 7-6(3), 0-1 ret.
Hubert HurkaczLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Shevchenko A. 6-3, 7-6(10)
  2. Won v Damm M. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
  3. Won v Harris L. 7-6(10), 6-4
  4. Won v Shapovalov D. 6(8)-7, 6-3, 6-3
  5. Lost to Davidovich Fokina A. 6-4, 7-6(7)
  6. Won v Tien L. 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
  7. Won v Gea A. 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2
  8. Won v Khachanov K. 7-6(2), 6-2
  9. Lost to De Minaur A. 6-4, 3-2 ret.
  10. Won v Duckworth J. 6-3, 7-6(4)

Stats comparison

StatDjokovicHurkacz
On hard courts13-421-13
Last 10 matches7-38-2
Service games held85.4%93.4%
Return games won15.2%14.7%

Our scenario

7:6, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Djokovic in two, with one tie-break. Hurkacz held 93% of his service games in his last ten matches with stats, so breaks will be rare and at least one tie-break is likely. That is where the record favours Djokovic: he has won six of their seven tie-breaks. With Hurkacz moving less freely after the adductor problem, we expect Djokovic to take more of the long return rallies and win 7:6, 6:4. A three-set win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01The Hurkacz serve (93% of service games held, 13.3 aces a match) can turn any set into a tie-break lottery.
  2. 02Djokovic is 39 and plays his sixth match in ten days; before Beijing he lost to lower-ranked players at the US Open and in Cincinnati.
  3. 03His last two wins in Beijing ended early through a default and a retirement, so he has not been through a full match since the Zverev quarter-final.
  4. 04It is an evening match, third on Stadium Court and not before 6 PM local time: a late finish adds to the load on a 39-year-old.
Head-to-headDjokovic leads 8-0, three of those wins on hard courts (Paris 2021, Dubai 2023, ATP Finals 2023). Seven of their sets went to a tie-break and Hurkacz won one of them, at Wimbledon in 2019. Their last meeting was the 2025 Geneva final on clay: 5:7, 7:6, 7:6 to Djokovic.
Full match analysis