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Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Second round · Hard
Novak DjokovicvsHubert Hurkacz prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
9 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Third match on court, not before 6:00 PM, not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
4:6 3:6
DJO11:00 UKHURIn our bets
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Djokovic vs Hurkacz?
Novak Djokovic plays Hubert Hurkacz in the Shanghai Masters second round, three days after winning the title in Beijing. We back Djokovic to win the match, most likely 7:6, 6:4.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 66–70%
- Our pick
- Novak Djokovic win
- Odds at publish
- 1.50
- Set by set
- 7:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Djokovic vs Hurkacz at a glance
| Match | Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Second round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 9 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Third match on court, not before 6:00 PM |
| Our pick | Novak Djokovic win · 1.50 · bet |
| Our estimate | 66–70% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (7:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Eight wins from eight is not luck: Djokovic reads the Hurkacz serve better than anyone, and Hurkacz has won one of their seven tie-breaks. |
No. 02 · Form
Djokovic vs Hurkacz: recent form
Djokovic won Beijing; Hurkacz retired there in the semi-final
Novak DjokovicLast 10: 7-3
- Won v Safiullin R. 7-6(6), 6-3, 3-6, 6-3
- Won v Auger Aliassime F. 7-6(10), 3-6, 6-3, 6(4)-7, 7-6(4)
- Lost to Sinner J. 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Tirante T. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Navone M. 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1
- Won v Borges N. 6-3, 7-6(2)
- Won v Yunchaokete B. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2
- Won v Zverev A. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Medvedev D. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
- Won v De Minaur A. 7-6(3), 0-1 ret.
Hubert HurkaczLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Shevchenko A. 6-3, 7-6(10)
- Won v Damm M. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Harris L. 7-6(10), 6-4
- Won v Shapovalov D. 6(8)-7, 6-3, 6-3
- Lost to Davidovich Fokina A. 6-4, 7-6(7)
- Won v Tien L. 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Gea A. 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2
- Won v Khachanov K. 7-6(2), 6-2
- Lost to De Minaur A. 6-4, 3-2 ret.
- Won v Duckworth J. 6-3, 7-6(4)
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | De Minaur A.Beijing · 06.10.26 | 7-6(3), 0-1 ret. |
| Won v | Medvedev D.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 7-5, 5-3 ret. |
| Won v | Zverev A.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Yunchaokete B.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2 |
| Won v | Borges N.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(2) |
| Lost to | Navone M.US Open · 31.08.26 | 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Tirante T.Cincinnati · 15.08.26 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Sinner J.Wimbledon · 10.07.26 | 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Auger Aliassime F.Wimbledon · 07.07.26 | 7-6(10), 3-6, 6-3, 6(4)-7, 7-6(4) |
| Won v | Safiullin R.Wimbledon · 05.07.26 | 7-6(6), 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Duckworth J.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-3, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | De Minaur A.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 3-2 ret. |
| Won v | Khachanov K.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 7-6(2), 6-2 |
| Won v | Gea A.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2 |
| Won v | Tien L.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Davidovich Fokina A.Chengdu · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Shapovalov D.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 6(8)-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Harris L.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 7-6(10), 6-4 |
| Won v | Damm M.Chengdu · 26.09.26 | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Shevchenko A.Chengdu · 24.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(10) |
Head-to-headDjokovic leads 8-0, three of those wins on hard courts (Paris 2021, Dubai 2023, ATP Finals 2023). Seven of their sets went to a tie-break and Hurkacz won one of them, at Wimbledon in 2019. Their last meeting was the 2025 Geneva final on clay: 5:7, 7:6, 7:6 to Djokovic.
No. 03 · Context
8-0 in the head-to-head, and Hurkacz has won one of seven tie-breaks
- Djokovic in Beijing
- He won the China Open last week, beating Borges, Bu Yunchaokete and Zverev (4:6, 6:4, 6:4). The semi-final ended at 7:5, 5:3 when Medvedev was defaulted, and the final at 7:6, 0:1 when De Minaur retired. He has a first-round bye in Shanghai, where he has won the title four times.
- Hurkacz and the injury
- Hurkacz reached the Chengdu final and then the Beijing semi-final, where he retired against De Minaur at 4:6, 2:3 with what was reported as an adductor problem. Three days later he beat James Duckworth 6:3, 7:6 in the Shanghai first round. How fully he has recovered is not known.
- Before Beijing
- Djokovic lost early at the US Open (first round, to Mariano Navone in five sets) and in Cincinnati (to Thiago Agustin Tirante). He is 13-4 on hard courts this season, Hurkacz 21-13.
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No. 04 · Stats comparison
Hurkacz holds 93% of his service games, Djokovic 85%
| Stat | Djokovic | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | No. 11 (better) | No. 34 |
| Season record | 21-7 (better) | 34-22 |
| On hard courts | 13-4 (better) | 21-13 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 8-2 (better) |
| As favourite | 18-5 (better) | 27-14 |
| As underdog | 3-2 (better) | 7-8 |
| Stat | Djokovic | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (7-3) | 10 (8-2) |
| Aces per match | 9.2 | 13.3 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 4.3 | 2.4 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 65.3% | 67.3% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 74.0% | 78.3% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 52.7% | 55.8% (better) |
| Service games held | 85.4% | 93.4% (better) |
| Break points saved | 75.0% | 80.0% (better) |
| Stat | Djokovic | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 33.1% (better) | 31.7% |
| Return games won | 15.2% (better) | 14.7% |
| Break points converted | 35.1% | 54.1% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 8 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Novak Djokovic 29.06.2026–30.09.2026, Hubert Hurkacz 31.08.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head8 meetings
Djokovic leads 8-0
| 2025 | DjokovicGeneva · Clay · F | 5-7 7-6(2) 7-6(2) |
| 2023 | DjokovicTour Finals · Hard · RR | 7-6(1) 4-6 6-1 |
| 2023 | DjokovicWimbledon · Grass · R16 | 7-6(6) 7-6(6) 5-7 6-4 |
| 2023 | DjokovicDubai · Hard · QF | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022 | DjokovicMadrid Masters · Clay · QF | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021 | DjokovicParis Masters · Hard · SF | 3-6 6-0 7-6(5) |
| 2019 | DjokovicWimbledon · Grass · R32 | 7-5 6-7(5) 6-1 6-4 |
| 2019 | DjokovicRoland Garros · Clay · R128 | 6-4 6-2 6-2 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Djokovic vs Hurkacz?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Djokovic to win, 62% | Same side |
| Last Word On Tennis | Djokovic, low confidence because of Beijing fatigue | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract hard-court Elo | Djokovic about 76% | Same side |
Our position3 of 3 back Djokovic. We are on Djokovic’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Djokovic vs Hurkacz predicted score
Djokovic in two, with one tie-break
Hurkacz held 93% of his service games in his last ten matches with stats, so breaks will be rare and at least one tie-break is likely. That is where the record favours Djokovic: he has won six of their seven tie-breaks. With Hurkacz moving less freely after the adductor problem, we expect Djokovic to take more of the long return rallies and win 7:6, 6:4. A three-set win still wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 7:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Djokovic vs Hurkacz pick: Novak Djokovic win
Djokovic to win the match
Why we back it
Eight wins from eight is not luck: Djokovic reads the Hurkacz serve better than anyone, and Hurkacz has won one of their seven tie-breaks. Four days ago in Beijing Hurkacz could barely move and retired, and long return rallies are the last thing he needs now. The match-winner market also pays if Djokovic needs three sets, so a tie-break lottery does not break our pick. We expect Djokovic in two sets, one of them through a tie-break.
Our probability66–70%
Our pickNovak Djokovic win
Odds1.50
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 7:6, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news on Djokovic’s fitness (a medical time-out in practice, a schedule change), or clear signs that Hurkacz has fully recovered and is moving freely.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- The Hurkacz serve (93% of service games held, 13.3 aces a match) can turn any set into a tie-break lottery.
- Djokovic is 39 and plays his sixth match in ten days; before Beijing he lost to lower-ranked players at the US Open and in Cincinnati.
- His last two wins in Beijing ended early through a default and a retirement, so he has not been through a full match since the Zverev quarter-final.
- It is an evening match, third on Stadium Court and not before 6 PM local time: a late finish adds to the load on a 39-year-old.
No. 10 · Our call
Bet
We back Djokovic to win the match: he is 8-0 against Hurkacz, and Hurkacz retired hurt in Beijing four days ago.
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