Single · No. 62 · 10 OCTLost
Boston vs Philadelphia
- 01Boston vs PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia +1.51.39 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.39
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- -1.00 unit
- Our estimate
- 65–69%
Published 10 OCT 09:4918+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL single: Philadelphia +1.5 in Boston. The two teams finished last season almost level on points, three of the Flyers' five defeats this season were by one goal, and Boston are without Charlie McAvoy for one more game. Overtime and shootout count.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 10 OCT · 18:00 UK
Boston vs Philadelphia
Philadelphia +1.51.39Lost
Why this pickLast season Boston took 61.0% of available points and Philadelphia 59.8%; three of the Flyers' five defeats this season were by one goal. Any Philadelphia win, any overtime and a one-goal Boston win count.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 3:2
- Our estimate · Philadelphia +1.5
- 65–69%
Form · Boston 3-2 in their last 5. Philadelphia 0-5.
Boston3-2
- Winvs Utah6:1
- Lossvs Ottawa1:4
- Lossvs Minnesota1:4
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Winnipeg4:3 OT
- Winvs NY Rangers3:0
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Philadelphia0-5
- Lossvs Ottawa1:2
- Lossvs Tampa Bay1:4
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Carolina2:3 OT
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs New Jersey2:3 OT
- Lossvs Pittsburgh0:7
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 1.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 20%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Boston
- OutCharlie McAvoySuspended, last game of a six-game ban
- Philadelphia
- OutNikita GrebenkinUpper body
- OutRasmus RistolainenUndisclosed injury
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree Boston are slightly stronger, but the models give them only 53 to 56%. That is why we take the result that also wins with a one-goal Boston victory. A 4:1, as Sportsgambler predicts, would lose our pick.
Scenario & score
A tight game decided by one goal. 3:2 to Boston is our main score; 2:3 for Philadelphia, in regulation or overtime, is the alternative. Any Flyers win, any game that goes to overtime or a shootout and a one-goal Boston win all win this pick. Boston by two or more in regulation, including a late empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2, loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Philadelphia allow 36.8 shots a game and have scored on 6.7% of their power plays.
- 02Vladar has a .863 save percentage in his two starts this season.
- 03Boston beat Utah 6:1 on Thursday, and a late empty-net goal can turn a one-goal game into a two-goal one.
Key factPhiladelphia lost 2:1 in Ottawa on Thursday and 3:2 in overtime to both New Jersey and Carolina; the heavy defeats were 7:0 at home to Pittsburgh and 4:1 in Tampa. Boston beat Utah 6:1 on Thursday after losing 4:1 in Minnesota and 4:1 at home to Ottawa.
Full match analysis