29 PIM in 8 games benched Zadorov. His agent agreed with a fan about Toronto
Our take Boston proved they can win without him
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Boston
BostonvsPhiladelphia Boston Bruins vs Philadelphia Flyers · hockey prediction
Score
5:1
Date · UK
10 OCT
Local time
13:00 · 10 OCT
City
Boston
Status
Full time
BOS5:1PHIFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Boston vs Philadelphia?
Boston host Philadelphia at TD Garden with the Flyers still looking for their first win of the season (0-3-2). Three of those five defeats were by a single goal, and last season the two teams finished almost level on points. We back Philadelphia +1.5: any Flyers win, any game that goes to overtime and a one-goal Boston win all count.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 3:2
- Our estimate
- 65–69%
- Market
- Philadelphia +1.5
- Price now
- 1.39
Boston vs Philadelphia at a glance
| Match | Boston Bruins vs Philadelphia Flyers |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 18:00 UK |
| Venue | TD Garden, Boston |
| Our pick | Philadelphia +1.5 · 1.39 · bet |
| Our estimate | 65–69% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | We think this game is closer than Philadelphia's record suggests. |
No. 04 · Form
Boston vs Philadelphia: recent form
Boston 3-2 in their last 5. Philadelphia 0-5.
- Boston
- Beat Utah at home on Thu 8 Oct · one day of rest · not a back-to-back
- Philadelphia
- Lost in Ottawa on Thu 8 Oct · one day of rest · short flight, third straight road game
Boston3-2
- Winvs Utah6:1
- Lossvs Ottawa1:4
- Lossvs Minnesota1:4
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Winnipeg4:3 OT
- Winvs NY Rangers3:0
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Philadelphia0-5
- Lossvs Ottawa1:2
- Lossvs Tampa Bay1:4
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Carolina2:3 OT
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs New Jersey2:3 OT
- Lossvs Pittsburgh0:7
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 1.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 20%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Key factPhiladelphia lost 2:1 in Ottawa on Thursday and 3:2 in overtime to both New Jersey and Carolina; the heavy defeats were 7:0 at home to Pittsburgh and 4:1 in Tampa. Boston beat Utah 6:1 on Thursday after losing 4:1 in Minnesota and 4:1 at home to Ottawa.
| Attack & defence | BOS | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-2-0 | 0-3-2 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 24.2 | 21.2 |
| Shots against | 29.6 | 36.8 |
| Special teams | BOS | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 21.4% | 6.7% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 83.3% | 75.0% |
NHL 2026-27, 5 games each · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Boston vs Philadelphia: starting goalies and team news
Swayman and Vladar are the expected starters; neither is confirmed yet.
BostonExpected
Jeremy Swayman- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .932
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 1.98
- Wins and losses.
- 3-1-0
PhiladelphiaExpected
Dan Vladar- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .863
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 5.08
- Wins and losses.
- 0-2-0
Boston
- OutCharlie McAvoySuspended, last game of a six-game ban
Philadelphia
- OutNikita GrebenkinUpper body
- OutRasmus RistolainenUndisclosed injury
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Jeremy Swayman (.932) for Boston and Dan Vladar (.863) for Philadelphia, both unconfirmed. Joseph Woll, who stopped 24 of 26 shots in Ottawa on Thursday, is the other Flyers option. Boston serve the last game of Charlie McAvoy's six-game suspension; Philadelphia are without Nikita Grebenkin and Rasmus Ristolainen and did not practise on Friday, according to the NHL.com preview.
In the news
Report: Kings want Hellebuyck, but LA have one goal in each of their last four games
Our take A goalie won't fix four goals in four games
Tocchet says the Flyers rush. Ten goals in eight games say he is right
Our take Patience, not panic, is the Flyers' missing skill
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Boston vs Philadelphia?
All three previews we found pick Boston; the two models make it close.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Boston 52.6%, projected 2.97 to 2.69 | Other side |
| Dimers | Boston to win, 56.4% | Other side |
| Sportsgambler | Boston to win, predicted 4:1 | Other side |
Our positionWe agree Boston are slightly stronger, but the models give them only 53 to 56%. That is why we take the result that also wins with a one-goal Boston victory. A 4:1, as Sportsgambler predicts, would lose our pick.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Boston vs Philadelphia predicted score
A tight game decided by one goal.
3:2 to Boston is our main score; 2:3 for Philadelphia, in regulation or overtime, is the alternative. Any Flyers win, any game that goes to overtime or a shootout and a one-goal Boston win all win this pick. Boston by two or more in regulation, including a late empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2, loses it.
- Predicted score
- 3:2
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
BOS
PHI
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Boston vs Philadelphia pick: Philadelphia +1.5
Philadelphia +1.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think this game is closer than Philadelphia's record suggests. Last season the two teams finished almost level, Boston on 61.0% of available points and Philadelphia on 59.8%, and three of the Flyers' five defeats this season came by one goal. Boston are without Charlie McAvoy for one more game and have been outshot 29.6 to 24.2 a game so far. We expect a one-goal game, and Philadelphia +1.5 covers it, overtime included.
Our probability65–69%
Our pickPhiladelphia +1.5
Odds1.39
Main scenario3:2
- Wins with
- 3:22:14:32:31:22:4…
- Loses with
- 4:23:15:24:15:36:3…
- Our scenario
- 3:2alternative 2:3
What would change our mind Philadelphia losing another top-six forward before the game, such as Travis Konecny or Owen Tippett.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia +1.5 | 1.39 | 71.9% |
| Boston −1.5 | 2.85 | 35.1% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:26 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Philadelphia allow 36.8 shots a game and have scored on 6.7% of their power plays.
- Vladar has a .863 save percentage in his two starts this season.
- Boston beat Utah 6:1 on Thursday, and a late empty-net goal can turn a one-goal game into a two-goal one.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Philadelphia +1.5 at 1.39, a single.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Philadelphia +1.5 at 1.39
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:2Bet at 1.39
- Happened
- 5:1Boston win
Lost
Read next
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.