Single · No. 64 · 10 OCTWon
Florida vs Minnesota
- 01Florida vs MinnesotaMinnesota +1.51.40 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.40
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- +0.40 units
- Our estimate
- 65–69%
Published 10 OCT 09:4918+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL single: Minnesota +1.5 in Florida's home opener. All four Panthers games this season were decided by one goal, both expected goalies have started well, and Minnesota were the stronger team last season. Overtime and shootout count.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 10 OCT · 23:00 UK
Florida vs Minnesota
Minnesota +1.51.40Won
Why this pickAll four Florida games were one-goal games, three in overtime; Markstrom (.929) and Wallstedt (.927) have started well, and Florida are without Barkov. Any Minnesota win, any overtime and a one-goal Florida win count.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 3:2
- Our estimate · Minnesota +1.5
- 65–69%
Form · Florida 2-2 in their last 4. Minnesota 2-2.
Florida2-2
- Winvs Los Angeles2:1
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Anaheim2:3 OT
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs San Jose3:4 OT
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Carolina1:0 OT
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 25%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 75%
Minnesota2-2
- Lossvs Tampa Bay2:3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Buffalo2:3 OT
- Winvs Boston4:1
- Winvs Nashville3:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.75
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 0%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 25%
Lineups · Expected
- Florida
- OutAleksander BarkovLower body, long-term injured reserve
- OutJonah GadjovichNeck surgery, long-term injured reserve
- Minnesota
- OutBrock FaberFractured skull, surgery in September
- OutFilip GustavssonHip surgery, expected back in November
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe do not argue with Florida as a slight favourite at home. The models give them 52 to 56%, so we take the result that also wins with a one-goal Florida victory. A 5:3, as Sportsgambler predicts, would lose our pick.
Scenario & score
Two goalies in form and a one-goal game. 3:2 to Florida, possibly after overtime, is our main score; 2:3 for Minnesota is the alternative. Any Wild win, any game that goes to overtime or a shootout and a one-goal Florida win all win this pick. Florida by two or more in regulation, including a late empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2, loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Florida have outshot opponents 26.8 to 21.8 a game and have not lost in regulation yet.
- 02Minnesota play their third straight road game; Florida have had three days off since Tuesday.
- 03A late empty-net goal can turn a one-goal Florida win into a two-goal one.
Key factFlorida's four games so far: 1:0 in overtime in Carolina, 4:3 and 3:2 overtime defeats in San Jose and Anaheim, then a 2:1 win in Los Angeles. Minnesota beat Nashville 3:1 and Boston 4:1, then lost 3:2 in overtime in Buffalo and 3:2 in Tampa on Thursday.
Full match analysis