McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Sunrise
FloridavsMinnesota Florida Panthers vs Minnesota Wild · hockey prediction
Score
1:4
Date · UK
10 OCT
Local time
18:00 · 10 OCT
City
Sunrise
Status
Full time
FLA1:4MINFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Florida vs Minnesota?
Florida play their home opener against Minnesota after a four-game road trip in which every game was decided by one goal. Last season the Wild took 63.4% of available points and the Panthers 51.2%, and Florida are still without captain Aleksander Barkov. We back Minnesota +1.5: any Wild win, any game that goes to overtime and a one-goal Florida win all count.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 3:2
- Our estimate
- 65–69%
- Market
- Minnesota +1.5
- Price now
- 1.40
Florida vs Minnesota at a glance
| Match | Florida Panthers vs Minnesota Wild |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 23:00 UK |
| Venue | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise |
| Our pick | Minnesota +1.5 · 1.40 · bet |
| Our estimate | 65–69% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | We expect a one-goal game. |
No. 04 · Form
Florida vs Minnesota: recent form
Florida 2-2 in their last 4. Minnesota 2-2.
- Florida
- Won in Los Angeles on Tue 6 Oct · three days of rest · home opener after a four-game road trip
- Minnesota
- Lost in Tampa on Thu 8 Oct · one day of rest · short trip from Tampa, third straight road game
Florida2-2
- Winvs Los Angeles2:1
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Anaheim2:3 OT
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs San Jose3:4 OT
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Carolina1:0 OT
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 25%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 75%
Minnesota2-2
- Lossvs Tampa Bay2:3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Buffalo2:3 OT
- Winvs Boston4:1
- Winvs Nashville3:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.75
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 0%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 25%
Key factFlorida's four games so far: 1:0 in overtime in Carolina, 4:3 and 3:2 overtime defeats in San Jose and Anaheim, then a 2:1 win in Los Angeles. Minnesota beat Nashville 3:1 and Boston 4:1, then lost 3:2 in overtime in Buffalo and 3:2 in Tampa on Thursday.
| Attack & defence | FLA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 2-0-2 | 2-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 26.8 | 29.0 |
| Shots against | 21.8 | 27.5 |
| Special teams | FLA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 4.3% | 38.5% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 78.9% | 91.7% |
NHL 2026-27, 4 games each · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Florida vs Minnesota: starting goalies and team news
Markstrom and Wallstedt are the expected starters; neither is confirmed yet.
FloridaExpected
Jacob Markstrom- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .929
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 1.27
- Wins and losses.
- 2-0-1
MinnesotaExpected
Jesper Wallstedt- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .927
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 1.98
- Wins and losses.
- 2-1-1
Florida
- OutAleksander BarkovLower body, long-term injured reserve
- OutJonah GadjovichNeck surgery, long-term injured reserve
Minnesota
- OutBrock FaberFractured skull, surgery in September
- OutFilip GustavssonHip surgery, expected back in November
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Jacob Markstrom (.929, 1.27 goals against a game) for Florida and Jesper Wallstedt (.927) for Minnesota, both unconfirmed. Florida are without Barkov, on long-term injured reserve with a lower-body injury since he went down in San Jose on 1 October, and Jonah Gadjovich. Minnesota miss defenceman Brock Faber, who had surgery on a fractured skull in late September, and goalie Filip Gustavsson, recovering from hip surgery; Calvin Pickard is the backup.
In the news
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
Kaprizov has 9 goals in 8 games. Blues goalie Joel Hofer left his net to hit him
Our take This is a Player Safety case, not a footnote
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Florida vs Minnesota?
All three previews we found pick Florida; the two models make it close.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Florida 56.0%, projected 3.38 to 2.73 | Other side |
| Dimers | Florida to win, 52.3% | Other side |
| Sportsgambler | Florida to win, predicted 5:3 | Other side |
Our positionWe do not argue with Florida as a slight favourite at home. The models give them 52 to 56%, so we take the result that also wins with a one-goal Florida victory. A 5:3, as Sportsgambler predicts, would lose our pick.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Florida vs Minnesota predicted score
Two goalies in form and a one-goal game.
3:2 to Florida, possibly after overtime, is our main score; 2:3 for Minnesota is the alternative. Any Wild win, any game that goes to overtime or a shootout and a one-goal Florida win all win this pick. Florida by two or more in regulation, including a late empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2, loses it.
- Predicted score
- 3:2
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
FLA
MIN
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Florida vs Minnesota pick: Minnesota +1.5
Minnesota +1.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect a one-goal game. All four of Florida's games this season were decided by one goal, three of them in overtime, and both goalies have started well: Markstrom at .929, Wallstedt at .927. Minnesota were the stronger team last season, with 63.4% of available points against Florida's 51.2%, and Florida are still without Barkov. Minnesota +1.5 wins with any of the close results we see as most likely.
Our probability65–69%
Our pickMinnesota +1.5
Odds1.40
Main scenario3:2
- Wins with
- 3:22:14:32:31:22:4…
- Loses with
- 4:23:15:24:15:36:3…
- Our scenario
- 3:2alternative 2:3
What would change our mind Wallstedt not starting and Minnesota going with Calvin Pickard (.871 last season), or Kirill Kaprizov or Quinn Hughes missing the game.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota +1.5 | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Florida −1.5 | 2.78 | 36% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:26 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Florida have outshot opponents 26.8 to 21.8 a game and have not lost in regulation yet.
- Minnesota play their third straight road game; Florida have had three days off since Tuesday.
- A late empty-net goal can turn a one-goal Florida win into a two-goal one.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Minnesota +1.5 at 1.40, a single.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Minnesota +1.5 at 1.40
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:2Bet at 1.40
- Happened
- 1:4Minnesota win
Won
Read next
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.