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Single · No. 58 · 10 OCTWon

Vacherot vs Baez

  1. 01Valentin Vacherot vs Sebastian BaezValentin Vacherot win1.29 · Won
Total odds
1.29
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.29 units
Our estimate
70–74%
Published 10 OCT 06:5818+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Valentin Vacherot to beat Sebastian Baez in the Shanghai Masters second round: he beat Tsitsipas and Fils in Tokyo last week, while Baez has won one of his last five matches.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 10 OCT · 11:00 UK

Valentin Vacherot vs Sebastian Baez

Valentin Vacherot win1.29Won
Why this pickVacherot, the defending champion, reached the Tokyo semi-finals last week with wins over Tsitsipas and Fils; Baez has won one of his last five and is at his best on clay. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
70–74%

Form · Vacherot beat Tsitsipas and Fils in Tokyo; Baez has won one of his last five

Valentin VacherotLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Kovacevic A. 6-2, 6-3, 7-5
  2. Won v Majchrzak K. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-2
  3. Lost to Tiafoe F. 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
  4. Won v Vasa E. 6-3, 7-6(3)
  5. Won v Virtanen O. 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
  6. Lost to Harris L. 6-4, 7-6(5)
  7. Won v Blockx A. 7-6(2), 7-6(4)
  8. Won v Tsitsipas S. 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
  9. Won v Fils A. 7-5, 4-6, 6-4
  10. Lost to Lehecka J. 6-4, 6-2
Sebastian BaezLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Pacheco Mendez R. 6-4, 6-3
  2. Won v Wong C. 6-4, 6-0
  3. Won v Harris L. 6-4, 6-4
  4. Lost to Hurkacz H. 4-6, 6-0, 6-3
  5. Won v Grenier H. 7-5, 7-6(2)
  6. Lost to Cerundolo J. 6-2, 4-0 ret.
  7. Lost to Nakashima B. 6-2, 6-1, 6-0
  8. Lost to Brooksby J. 7-5, 7-5
  9. Lost to Shang J. 5-7, 6-3, 7-5
  10. Won v Giron M. 1-6, 6-3, 6-4

Stats comparison

StatVacherotBaez
On hard courts14-1217-11
Last 10 matches7-35-5
Service games held80.0%70.2%
Return games won16.5%24.3%

Our scenario

6:4, 7:6 2:0 in sets

Vacherot in two sets. Vacherot won 80% of his service games in his last ten matches with stats, Baez 70%, so the bigger serve should decide the sets. Baez returns well (24% of return games won), which keeps a three-set match possible, as in two of Vacherot’s Tokyo wins. We expect Vacherot 6:4, 7:6; a 2:1 win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Vacherot is only 14-12 on hard courts this season, and the Elo models rate him lower than the market (62–67% against about 74%).
  2. 02He defends the 2025 title and its points; he has said this pressure is new for him.
  3. 03Three of his four Tokyo matches went to three sets or two tie-breaks: easy wins have been rare.
  4. 04Baez has already played a match on these courts this week; Vacherot plays his first.
Vacherot in AsiaIn Tokyo he beat Alexander Blockx 7:6, 7:6, Stefanos Tsitsipas 4:6, 7:6, 6:4 and Arthur Fils 7:5, 4:6, 6:4, then lost the semi-final to Jiri Lehecka 4:6, 2:6. A week earlier he lost to Lloyd Harris in Chengdu. He had a first-round bye in Shanghai and last played on 5 October.
Full match analysis