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Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Second round · Hard

Valentin VacherotvsSebastian Baez prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026

Date
10 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Fifth match on court, after Alcaraz v Cerundolo (not before 6:00 PM), not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
6:4 7:6
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Vacherot vs Baez?

Valentin Vacherot, the defending Shanghai champion, plays Sebastian Baez in the second round. We back Vacherot to win the match, most likely 6:4, 7:6.

Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
70–74%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Valentin Vacherot win
Odds at publish
1.29
Set by set
6:4, 7:6
Not before (UK)
11:00

Vacherot vs Baez at a glance

MatchValentin Vacherot vs Sebastian Baez
TournamentATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Second round
SurfaceHard
Start10 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local
CourtStadium Court · Fifth match on court, after Alcaraz v Cerundolo (not before 6:00 PM)
Our pickValentin Vacherot win · 1.29 · bet
Our estimate70–74%
Predicted score2:0 (6:4, 7:6)
Main reasonVacherot arrives from a Tokyo semi-final in which he beat Tsitsipas and Fils, and he is the defending champion on these courts.
No. 02 · Form

Vacherot vs Baez: recent form

Vacherot beat Tsitsipas and Fils in Tokyo; Baez has won one of his last five

Valentin VacherotLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Kovacevic A. 6-2, 6-3, 7-5
  2. Won v Majchrzak K. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-2
  3. Lost to Tiafoe F. 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
  4. Won v Vasa E. 6-3, 7-6(3)
  5. Won v Virtanen O. 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
  6. Lost to Harris L. 6-4, 7-6(5)
  7. Won v Blockx A. 7-6(2), 7-6(4)
  8. Won v Tsitsipas S. 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
  9. Won v Fils A. 7-5, 4-6, 6-4
  10. Lost to Lehecka J. 6-4, 6-2
Sebastian BaezLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Pacheco Mendez R. 6-4, 6-3
  2. Won v Wong C. 6-4, 6-0
  3. Won v Harris L. 6-4, 6-4
  4. Lost to Hurkacz H. 4-6, 6-0, 6-3
  5. Won v Grenier H. 7-5, 7-6(2)
  6. Lost to Cerundolo J. 6-2, 4-0 ret.
  7. Lost to Nakashima B. 6-2, 6-1, 6-0
  8. Lost to Brooksby J. 7-5, 7-5
  9. Lost to Shang J. 5-7, 6-3, 7-5
  10. Won v Giron M. 1-6, 6-3, 6-4

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Valentin Vacherot
Lost toLehecka J.Tokyo · 05.10.266-4, 6-2
Won vFils A.Tokyo · 04.10.267-5, 4-6, 6-4
Won vTsitsipas S.Tokyo · 02.10.264-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
Won vBlockx A.Tokyo · 30.09.267-6(2), 7-6(4)
Lost toHarris L.Chengdu · 26.09.266-4, 7-6(5)
Won vVirtanen O.Davis Cup · 19.09.267-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
Won vVasa E.Davis Cup · 18.09.266-3, 7-6(3)
Lost toTiafoe F.US Open · 05.09.266-4, 6-2, 6-4
Won vMajchrzak K.US Open · 03.09.266-4, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-2
Won vKovacevic A.US Open · 31.08.266-2, 6-3, 7-5
Sebastian Baez
Won vGiron M.Shanghai · 08.10.261-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost toShang J.Beijing · 01.10.265-7, 6-3, 7-5
Lost toBrooksby J.Chengdu · 23.09.267-5, 7-5
Lost toNakashima B.US Open · 31.08.266-2, 6-1, 6-0
Lost toCerundolo J.Winston Salem · 26.08.266-2, 4-0 ret.
Won vGrenier H.Winston Salem · 26.08.267-5, 7-6(2)
Lost toHurkacz H.Cancun challenger · 24.08.264-6, 6-0, 6-3
Won vHarris L.Cancun challenger · 23.08.266-4, 6-4
Won vWong C.Cancun challenger · 22.08.266-4, 6-0
Won vPacheco Mendez R.Cancun challenger · 21.08.266-4, 6-3
Vacherot in AsiaIn Tokyo he beat Alexander Blockx 7:6, 7:6, Stefanos Tsitsipas 4:6, 7:6, 6:4 and Arthur Fils 7:5, 4:6, 6:4, then lost the semi-final to Jiri Lehecka 4:6, 2:6. A week earlier he lost to Lloyd Harris in Chengdu. He had a first-round bye in Shanghai and last played on 5 October.
No. 03 · Context

Vacherot defends the Shanghai title he won in 2025

Baez’s form
He has won one of his last five matches: a 1:6, 6:3, 6:4 win over Marcos Giron in the Shanghai first round on 8 October, after defeats to Shang Juncheng in Beijing, Jenson Brooksby in Chengdu and Brandon Nakashima at the US Open (2:6, 1:6, 0:6). In August he retired against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Winston-Salem.
Surfaces
Baez is 18-15 on clay this season and 17-11 on hard courts, a record that includes Challenger events. Vacherot is 14-12 on hard courts and 7-5 on clay.
The title defence
Vacherot won Shanghai in 2025 as a qualifier and defends those points this week; he said he talked through the return to Shanghai with his coach and his psychologist.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Vacherot serves 10 aces a match, Baez 2.2

StatVacherotBaez
Season record25-17 (better)36-29
On hard courts14-1217-11 (better)
Last 10 matches7-3 (better)5-5
As favourite16-6 (better)22-9
As underdog8-1113-17 (better)
StatVacherotBaez
Matches (W-L)10 (5-5)10 (5-5)
Aces per match10.0 (better)2.2
Double faults per match4.62.0 (better)
1st serve in61.3%64.7% (better)
1st serve points won76.8% (better)66.2%
2nd serve points won46.9%48.8% (better)
Service games held80.0% (better)70.2%
Break points saved57.8% (better)50.7%
StatVacherotBaez
Return points won34.0%38.5% (better)
Return games won16.5%24.3% (better)
Break points converted34.9%41.2% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 9 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Valentin Vacherot 02.08.2026–30.09.2026, Sebastian Baez 13.08.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.

First meeting

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Vacherot vs Baez?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
Dimers (model)Vacherot to win, 75%Same side
Tennis Abstract EloVacherot about 62%Same side
Last Word On TennisVacherot in two setsSame side
Our position3 of 3 back Vacherot. We are on Vacherot’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Vacherot vs Baez predicted score

Vacherot in two sets

Vacherot won 80% of his service games in his last ten matches with stats, Baez 70%, so the bigger serve should decide the sets. Baez returns well (24% of return games won), which keeps a three-set match possible, as in two of Vacherot’s Tokyo wins. We expect Vacherot 6:4, 7:6; a 2:1 win still wins the bet.

Predicted score
2:0
6:4, 7:6
Alternative
2:1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Vacherot vs Baez pick: Valentin Vacherot win

Vacherot to win the match

Why we back it

Vacherot arrives from a Tokyo semi-final in which he beat Tsitsipas and Fils, and he is the defending champion on these courts. Baez has won one of his last five matches and is at his best on clay, not on a quick Shanghai hard court. Vacherot serves 10 aces a match to Baez’s 2.2, so we expect him to control his service games and find one break a set. A three-set win also wins the bet; we expect 6:4, 7:6.

Our probability70–74%
Our pickValentin Vacherot win
Odds1.29
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:4, 7:62:0 in sets

What would change our mind Any news of a Vacherot injury or a medical time-out before the match, or the price drifting to 1.40 or longer.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Vacherot is only 14-12 on hard courts this season, and the Elo models rate him lower than the market (62–67% against about 74%).
  2. He defends the 2025 title and its points; he has said this pressure is new for him.
  3. Three of his four Tokyo matches went to three sets or two tie-breaks: easy wins have been rare.
  4. Baez has already played a match on these courts this week; Vacherot plays his first.
No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Vacherot to win the match: he beat Tsitsipas and Fils in Tokyo last week, while Baez has won one of his last five.

Bet
Valentin Vacherot win
Odds at publish
1.29 · 10 OCT 05:10 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly