Single: Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime

Why this betA single on Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Pablo Carreno Busta in the Shanghai Masters third round: the world No. 5 is 21-9 on hard courts this season and serves 10.1 aces a match on them to Carreno Busta’s 3.3.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 12 OCT · 05:00 UK

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Felix Auger-Aliassime win1.28Won

Why this pickAuger-Aliassime, the No. 4 seed, wins 74.7% of first-serve points on hard courts to Carreno Busta’s 68.2%; Carreno Busta came from a set down in both his Shanghai wins, so we expect a tight first set. A win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 0:2
Our estimate: 70–74%

Form · Carreno Busta came from a set down twice in Shanghai; Auger-Aliassime needed three sets against Ugo Carabelli

Pablo Carreno BustaLast 10: 5-5

Lost to Royer V. 1-6, 7-5, 6-2
Won v Machac T. 6-3, 6-2
Lost to Rublev A. 7-6(5), 6-1
Lost to Vallejo A. 6-4, 3-0 ret.
Lost to Lehecka J. 6-1, 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-2
Won v Zhou Y. 7-5, 6-3
Won v Mannarino A. 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Medvedev D. 6-4, 6-2
Won v Navone M. 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
Won v Tabilo A. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4

Felix Auger-AliassimeLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Djokovic N. 7-6(10), 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 7-6(4)
Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-3, 7-5
Won v Cerundolo J. 7-5, 6-1
Lost to Tiafoe F. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Hijikata R. 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5
Lost to Khachanov K. 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
Won v Halys Q. 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3
Won v Rinderknech A. 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
Lost to Khachanov K. 6-3, 6-3
Won v Ugo Carabelli C. 4-6, 7-6(1), 7-5

Stats comparison

Stat	Carreno Busta	Auger-Aliassime
On hard courts	13-12	21-9
Last 10 matches	5-5	6-4
Service games held	77.2%	78.5%
Return games won	21.7%	19.1%

Our scenario

6:7, 4:6 0:2 in sets

Auger-Aliassime in two sets. On hard courts both hold serve at a similar rate (78.5% and 77.2% in their last ten matches with stats), so the sets should be close. Auger-Aliassime’s first serve (74.7% of points won, 10.1 aces a match) gives him more free points under pressure, and we expect one break to decide the second set after a tie-break in the first. A 2:1 win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01Auger-Aliassime lost three of his last ten matches as the favourite, twice to Khachanov, and needed three sets against Ugo Carabelli at very short odds.
02Carreno Busta has won four of his last five matches and came from a set down in both Shanghai wins.
03On hard courts Carreno Busta wins more return games (21.7% against 19.1%) and more second-serve points (49.8% against 47.6%).
04Carreno Busta has played two three-set matches this week; Auger-Aliassime one.

Auger-Aliassime’s autumnAfter a first-round bye in Shanghai he beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli 4:6, 7:6, 7:5 on 10 October. In Beijing he lost his first match to Karen Khachanov 3:6, 3:6, and Khachanov also beat him in the US Open second round in four sets. In between he won two Davis Cup singles, against Arthur Rinderknech and Quentin Halys, both in three sets.

Full match analysis