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Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Third round · Hard

Pablo Carreno BustavsFelix Auger-Aliassime prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026

Date
12 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
First match on court (starts at 12:00 PM), not before 12:00 local (05:00 UK)
Status
3:6 6:4 1:6
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime?

Felix Auger-Aliassime, the No. 4 seed, plays Pablo Carreno Busta in the Shanghai Masters third round on Monday. We back Auger-Aliassime to win the match, most likely 7:6, 6:4.

Predicted score
0:2
Our estimate
70–74%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Felix Auger-Aliassime win
Odds at publish
1.28
Set by set
6:7, 4:6
Not before (UK)
05:00

Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime at a glance

MatchPablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
TournamentATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Third round
SurfaceHard
Start12 OCT · 05:00 UK · 12:00 local
CourtStadium Court · First match on court (starts at 12:00 PM)
Our pickFelix Auger-Aliassime win · 1.28 · bet
Our estimate70–74%
Predicted score0:2 (6:7, 4:6)
Main reasonAuger-Aliassime is the world No.
No. 02 · Form

Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime: recent form

Carreno Busta came from a set down twice in Shanghai; Auger-Aliassime needed three sets against Ugo Carabelli

Pablo Carreno BustaLast 10: 5-5
  1. Lost to Royer V. 1-6, 7-5, 6-2
  2. Won v Machac T. 6-3, 6-2
  3. Lost to Rublev A. 7-6(5), 6-1
  4. Lost to Vallejo A. 6-4, 3-0 ret.
  5. Lost to Lehecka J. 6-1, 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-2
  6. Won v Zhou Y. 7-5, 6-3
  7. Won v Mannarino A. 6-3, 6-4
  8. Lost to Medvedev D. 6-4, 6-2
  9. Won v Navone M. 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
  10. Won v Tabilo A. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
Felix Auger-AliassimeLast 10: 6-4
  1. Lost to Djokovic N. 7-6(10), 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 7-6(4)
  2. Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-3, 7-5
  3. Won v Cerundolo J. 7-5, 6-1
  4. Lost to Tiafoe F. 6-3, 6-4
  5. Won v Hijikata R. 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5
  6. Lost to Khachanov K. 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
  7. Won v Halys Q. 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3
  8. Won v Rinderknech A. 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
  9. Lost to Khachanov K. 6-3, 6-3
  10. Won v Ugo Carabelli C. 4-6, 7-6(1), 7-5

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Pablo Carreno Busta
Won vTabilo A.Shanghai · 10.10.264-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
Won vNavone M.Shanghai · 08.10.264-6, 7-5, 6-3
Lost toMedvedev D.Beijing · 02.10.266-4, 6-2
Won vMannarino A.Beijing · 29.09.266-3, 6-4
Won vZhou Y.Beijing · 28.09.267-5, 6-3
Lost toLehecka J.US Open · 30.08.266-1, 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-2
Lost toVallejo A.Winston Salem · 24.08.266-4, 3-0 ret.
Lost toRublev A.Cincinnati · 16.08.267-6(5), 6-1
Won vMachac T.Cincinnati · 14.08.266-3, 6-2
Lost toRoyer V.Montreal · 04.08.261-6, 7-5, 6-2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Won vUgo Carabelli C.Shanghai · 10.10.264-6, 7-6(1), 7-5
Lost toKhachanov K.Beijing · 30.09.266-3, 6-3
Won vRinderknech A.Davis Cup · 19.09.264-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
Won vHalys Q.Davis Cup · 19.09.267-6(5), 4-6, 6-3
Lost toKhachanov K.US Open · 03.09.266-7(5), 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
Won vHijikata R.US Open · 01.09.267-5, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5
Lost toTiafoe F.Cincinnati · 20.08.266-3, 6-4
Won vCerundolo J.Cincinnati · 19.08.267-5, 6-1
Won vTsitsipas S.Cincinnati · 16.08.266-3, 7-5
Lost toDjokovic N.Wimbledon · 07.07.267-6(10), 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 7-6(4)
Auger-Aliassime’s autumnAfter a first-round bye in Shanghai he beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli 4:6, 7:6, 7:5 on 10 October. In Beijing he lost his first match to Karen Khachanov 3:6, 3:6, and Khachanov also beat him in the US Open second round in four sets. In between he won two Davis Cup singles, against Arthur Rinderknech and Quentin Halys, both in three sets.
No. 03 · Context

The No. 4 seed against a former top-10 player ranked 65th

Carreno Busta’s run
He came through qualifying in Beijing (wins over Zhou Yi and Adrian Mannarino) and lost to Daniil Medvedev 4:6, 2:6. In Shanghai he beat Mariano Navone 4:6, 7:5, 6:3 and Alejandro Tabilo 4:6, 7:6, 6:4, both from a set down. In August he retired against Daniel Vallejo in Winston-Salem.
Season and surface
Auger-Aliassime is 38-17 this season and 21-9 on hard courts. Carreno Busta is 33-22 and 13-12 on hard courts; his best surface this year is clay (19-8).
Head to head
They have met once: Auger-Aliassime won the 2020 Rotterdam semi-final 7:6, 6:4 on an indoor hard court.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Auger-Aliassime serves 10.1 aces a match on hard courts, Carreno Busta 3.3

StatCarreno BustaAuger-Aliassime
Season record33-2238-17 (better)
On hard courts13-1221-9 (better)
Last 10 matches5-56-4 (better)
As favourite21-936-14 (better)
As underdog12-12 (better)2-3
StatCarreno BustaAuger-Aliassime
Matches (W-L)10 (5-5)10 (5-5)
Aces per match3.310.1 (better)
Double faults per match3.0 (better)4.4
1st serve in64.4%65.4% (better)
1st serve points won68.2%74.7% (better)
2nd serve points won49.8% (better)47.6%
Service games held77.2%78.5% (better)
Break points saved59.4% (better)57.6%
StatCarreno BustaAuger-Aliassime
Return points won36.8% (better)36.1%
Return games won21.7% (better)19.1%
Break points converted39.4%40.3% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 10 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats on hard courts, Pablo Carreno Busta 23.02.2026–07.10.2026, Felix Auger-Aliassime 04.03.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings

Auger-Aliassime leads 1-0

2020Auger-AliassimeRotterdam · Hard · SF7-6(2) 6-4
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
Dimers (model)Auger-Aliassime the most likely winner, 75%Same side
Tennis Abstract EloAuger-Aliassime 78.7%Same side
SportsGamblerAuger-Aliassime to winSame side
The Stats ZoneOver 19.5 games; Carreno Busta the clear underdog—
Our position3 of 3 back Auger-Aliassime. We are on Auger-Aliassime’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime predicted score

Auger-Aliassime in two sets

On hard courts both hold serve at a similar rate (78.5% and 77.2% in their last ten matches with stats), so the sets should be close. Auger-Aliassime’s first serve (74.7% of points won, 10.1 aces a match) gives him more free points under pressure, and we expect one break to decide the second set after a tie-break in the first. A 2:1 win still wins the bet.

Predicted score
0:2
6:7, 4:6
Alternative
1:2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime win

Auger-Aliassime to win the match

Why we back it

Auger-Aliassime is the world No. 5 and the No. 4 seed, 21-9 on hard courts this season against Carreno Busta’s 13-12. His first serve is the difference: 74.7% of first-serve points won and 10.1 aces a match on hard courts, against 68.2% and 3.3. Carreno Busta has fought back from a set down in both his Shanghai wins, so we expect a tight first set and one break in the second: 7:6, 6:4. A three-set win also wins the bet.

Our probability70–74%
Our pickFelix Auger-Aliassime win
Odds1.28
Main scenario0:2
Our scenario
6:7, 4:60:2 in sets

What would change our mind Any news of an Auger-Aliassime injury or a medical time-out before the match, or his price drifting to 1.40 or longer.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Auger-Aliassime lost three of his last ten matches as the favourite, twice to Khachanov, and needed three sets against Ugo Carabelli at very short odds.
  2. Carreno Busta has won four of his last five matches and came from a set down in both Shanghai wins.
  3. On hard courts Carreno Busta wins more return games (21.7% against 19.1%) and more second-serve points (49.8% against 47.6%).
  4. Carreno Busta has played two three-set matches this week; Auger-Aliassime one.
No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Auger-Aliassime to win the match: the world No. 5 serves 10.1 aces a match on hard courts to Carreno Busta’s 3.3 and is 21-9 on hard courts this season.

Bet
Felix Auger-Aliassime win
Odds at publish
1.28 · 11 OCT 05:10 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly