Double · No. 80 · 13 OCTLost
Arsenal vs Lille + Inter vs Brugge
- 01Arsenal vs LilleArsenal win1.20 · Won
- 02Inter vs BruggeInter win1.23 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.48
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 55–61%
Published 13 OCT 06:37
Odds: average of 35 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:4018+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 35 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:4018+Play responsibly
Why this betArsenal at home to a Lille side without Ethan Mbappé, and Inter at San Siro against a Brugge defence that concedes three in most European games. Both legs need only a home win; all seven previews we read back both favourites.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 13 OCT · 20:00 UK
Arsenal vs Lille
Arsenal win1.20Won
Why this pickArsenal have won eight of their last ten and take 60% of the shots on target in their games; Lille are without Ethan Mbappé, banned for three Champions League games. All three previews we read expect a tight Arsenal win, so we take the straight win, most likely 2:0.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Arsenal win
- 75–79%
Form · Arsenal 12 from 15. Lille 9 from 15.
Arsenal12 pts
- Winvs Leeds United2:1
- Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- Winvs Ipswich Town4:2
- Winvs Sunderland2:0
- Winvs Napoli1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lille9 pts
- Winvs Le Havre1:0
- Lossvs Nice1:2
- Winvs Troyes2:0
- Lossvs Real Betis2:3
- Winvs Toulouse1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Arsenal
- OutWilliam SalibaBack injury
- OutChristos TzolisHamstring injury
- DoubtPiero HincapiéAnkle injury, sources differ
- Lille
- OutEthan MbappéSuspended
- OutHamza IgamaneCruciate ligament injury
- DoubtThiago SantosKnee injury
- DoubtRomain PerraudKnock
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a tight game, so we take the straight win with no handicap.
Scenario & score
Arsenal on the ball, Lille without their most dangerous forward. Arsenal create 1.96 expected goals a game in the Premier League and concede 1.11; Lille, without Ethan Mbappé and probably Thiago Santos, should sit deep and wait for transitions. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: Lille score from a set piece or a break against a rebuilt Arsenal back line. Any Arsenal win settles our pick, 1:0 included.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Saliba is out and Hincapié is a doubt, so Arsenal's back line is rebuilt.
- 02Arsenal's league points are 3.0 above their expected points: the table flatters their play a little.
- 03Arsenal lost 0:3 at Brighton two games ago.
- 04Lille kept clean sheets in five of their six away games, according to Scores24.
Key factArsenal have won four of their last five, 2:1 against Leeds at the weekend, but lost 0:3 at Brighton; over ten games they are 8-1-1 with 19 goals for and 8 against, and take 60% of the shots on target in their games. Lille are second in Ligue 1 and beat Le Havre 1:0 on Saturday, but have lost their last eight away games against English clubs (Sports Mole). Both teams had three days of rest.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 13 OCT · 20:00 UK
Inter vs Brugge
Inter win1.23Lost
Why this pickInter top Serie A with 16 points from 18 and create 3.08 expected goals a game; Brugge have conceded three or more in seven of their last nine European games. Brugge will probably score, so we take the win with no handicap, most likely 3:1.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 3:1
- Our estimate · Inter win
- 73–77%
Form · Inter 10 from 15. Brugge 12 from 15.
Inter10 pts
- Winvs Parma3:0
- Drawvs Roma2:2
- Winvs Udinese5:3
- Lossvs Real Madrid1:2
- Winvs Napoli3:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Brugge12 pts
- Winvs RAAL La Louvière4:1
- Winvs Genk3:0
- Winvs Antwerp3:1
- Lossvs Aston Villa2:3
- Winvs Lommel1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Inter
- OutJohn StonesThigh flexor problem
- OutCurtis JonesThigh and groin injury
- Brugge
- DoubtJoel OrdóñezReported injured, not confirmed
- DoubtHugo SiquetReported out, not confirmed
What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4
Our positionWe agree: Inter win, and Brugge probably score. That is why we take the straight win and no handicap.
Scenario & score
Inter press, Brugge answer on the break. Inter take 62% of the shots on target over their last ten games and should pin Brugge back at San Siro; Brugge's best route is the transition. 3:1 is our main score. 2:2 is the alternative, like Inter's draw in Rome: Inter have lost six of their last seven Champions League games. Any Inter win settles our pick.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Inter have lost six of their last seven Champions League games (Sports Mole).
- 02Brugge have won eight of their last ten and take 64% of the shots on target in their games.
- 03Inter have conceded at least twice in four of their seven official games this season (Scores24).
Key factInter beat Parma 3:0 on Saturday and are 6-3-1 over their last ten games with 25 goals scored; they lost 1:2 at Real Madrid on matchday 1. Club Brugge won 4:1 at La Louvière and are 8-0-2 over ten games (26:7), but lost 2:3 at home to Aston Villa in their first Champions League game. Brugge have conceded three or more in seven of their last nine European games (Sports Mole).
Full match analysis