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Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · London
ArsenalvsLille prediction
Score
3:0
Date
13 OCT
City
London
Status
Full time
ARS3:0LILFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Arsenal vs Lille?
Our Arsenal vs Lille prediction is an Arsenal win, most likely 2:0. Mikel Arteta's side won 1:0 in Naples on matchday 1 and have won eight of their last ten games; Lille lost 2:3 at home to Real Betis and are without Ethan Mbappé, banned for three Champions League games after his red card in that match. Arsenal are a leg of our double with Inter tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 75–79%
- Market
- Arsenal win
- Our bet
- Double No. 84 · total odds 1.51
- Leg odds
- 1.21
Arsenal vs Lille at a glance
| Match | Arsenal vs Lille |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 13 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 London |
| Venue | Emirates Stadium, London |
| Our pick | Arsenal win · 1.21 · Double No. 84 · total odds 1.51 |
| Our estimate | 75–79% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 |
| Main reason | We expect Arsenal to win at the Emirates. |
No. 04 · Form
Arsenal vs Lille: recent form
Arsenal 12 from 15. Lille 9 from 15.
Arsenal12 pts
- Winvs Leeds United2:1
- Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- Winvs Ipswich Town4:2
- Winvs Sunderland2:0
- Winvs Napoli1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lille9 pts
- Winvs Le Havre1:0
- Lossvs Nice1:2
- Winvs Troyes2:0
- Lossvs Real Betis2:3
- Winvs Toulouse1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factArsenal have won four of their last five, 2:1 against Leeds at the weekend, but lost 0:3 at Brighton; over ten games they are 8-1-1 with 19 goals for and 8 against, and take 60% of the shots on target in their games. Lille are second in Ligue 1 and beat Le Havre 1:0 on Saturday, but have lost their last eight away games against English clubs (Sports Mole). Both teams had three days of rest.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Arsenal vs Lille team news
Arsenal without Saliba and Christos Tzolis; Lille without Ethan Mbappé and Igamane.
Arsenal
- OutWilliam SalibaBack injury
- OutChristos TzolisHamstring injury
- DoubtPiero HincapiéAnkle injury, sources differ
Lille
- OutEthan MbappéSuspended
- OutHamza IgamaneCruciate ligament injury
- DoubtThiago SantosKnee injury
- DoubtRomain PerraudKnock
TacticsWilliam Saliba (back) and Christos Tzolis (hamstring) are out for Arsenal, so the centre of defence is rebuilt; Piero Hincapié left on a stretcher against Leeds and previews differ on whether he plays. Davide Ancelotti's Lille have Ethan Mbappé suspended and Hamza Igamane out with a cruciate ligament injury; Thiago Santos (knee) is a serious doubt and Romain Perraud is carrying a knock. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Bayern's 6-1 hid it: Olise banned, Musiala out, Neuer a doubt for Arsenal
Our take Without Olise, Arsenal arrive as the better side
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Arsenal vs Lille?
All three previews we read expect an Arsenal win, and none by more than two goals.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Arsenal 2:0 | Same side |
| SportsGambler | Arsenal 2:0 | Same side |
| Scores24 | Arsenal 1:0 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a tight game, so we take the straight win with no handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Arsenal vs Lille predicted score
Arsenal on the ball, Lille without their most dangerous forward.
Arsenal create 1.96 expected goals a game in the Premier League and concede 1.11; Lille, without Ethan Mbappé and probably Thiago Santos, should sit deep and wait for transitions. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: Lille score from a set piece or a break against a rebuilt Arsenal back line. Any Arsenal win settles our pick, 1:0 included.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
ARS
LIL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Arsenal vs Lille pick: Arsenal win
Arsenal win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Arsenal to win at the Emirates. Over ten games they take 60% of the shots on target and create almost two expected goals a game in the league, while Lille have lost their most dangerous forward to a three-match ban. All three previews we read back Arsenal. We see 2:0 and would not give a handicap, but the home win is the most likely result by a distance.
Our probability75–79%
Our pickArsenal win
Leg odds1.21
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 2:0alternative 1:1
What would change our mind An official Arsenal line-up without Gabriel as well as Saliba: then both first-choice centre-backs are missing and we drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 1.21 | 82.6% |
| Draw | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Lille win | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 42% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Both teams not to score | 1.62 | 61.7% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 19:08 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Saliba is out and Hincapié is a doubt, so Arsenal's back line is rebuilt.
- Arsenal's league points are 3.0 above their expected points: the table flatters their play a little.
- Arsenal lost 0:3 at Brighton two games ago.
- Lille kept clean sheets in five of their six away games, according to Scores24.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Arsenal win is one leg of our double No. 84. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.51, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 84 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Arsenal win at 1.21
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:0Bet at 1.21
- Happened
- 3:0Arsenal win
Won
Read next
- The betTonight's double: Arsenal and Inter
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.