Single · No. 77 · 13 OCTWon
NY Islanders vs Vancouver
- 01NY Islanders vs VancouverNY Islanders win · incl. OT1.45 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.45
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +0.90 units
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
Published 13 OCT 06:30
Odds: average of 15 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3618+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 15 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3618+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL single: the Islanders to beat Vancouver at home, overtime and shootout included. Vancouver took 35.4% of points last season, have lost four in a row and kill 52.0% of penalties; the Islanders have had three days of rest and Ilya Sorokin is at .937.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 14 OCT · 00:45 UK
NY Islanders vs Vancouver
NY Islanders win · incl. OT1.45Won
Why this pickVancouver play their fourth straight road game, third in four nights, after defeats of 2:7, 1:4 and 2:6. Both models give the Islanders about 64%. Sorokin (.937) against Lankinen (.786) is the biggest gap on the ice, and with overtime included a 3:2 after overtime still wins.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:2
- Our estimate · NY Islanders win · incl. OT
- 64–68%
Form · NY Islanders 2-3 in their last 5. Vancouver 1-4.
NY Islanders2-3
- Lossvs Tampa Bay3:5
- Winvs Chicago4:1
- Lossvs NY Rangers2:5
- Winvs New Jersey6:0
- Lossvs Toronto1:2
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Vancouver1-4
- Lossvs NY Rangers2:6
- Lossvs New Jersey1:4
- Lossvs Carolina2:7
- Lossvs Vegas2:3
- Winvs Calgary4:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 4.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Lineups · Expected
- NY Islanders
- DoubtMathew BarzalDay-to-day
- OutAlexander RomanovInjured reserve
- Vancouver
- OutThatcher DemkoOut, reason not given
- OutFilip ChytilInjured reserve
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe agree with both: the Islanders win. The models sit a point or two below the line at around 64%, and DRatings projects a gap of more than a goal. We take the win with overtime included, so a 3:2 after overtime still counts.
Scenario & score
Sorokin holds, the power play finds a leaky penalty kill. 4:2 to the Islanders is our main score: Vancouver average 21.9 shots a game, Sorokin stops what gets through, and the home power play scores against a penalty kill that has let in almost half of its chances. 2:3 to Vancouver after overtime or a shootout is the alternative if Lankinen has his night and the Islanders, without Barzal, cannot turn their chances into goals. Any Islanders win, 4:2, 3:1 or 3:2 after overtime, wins our pick; any Vancouver win loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01The Islanders are 2-3-0 and have been outshot this season, 24.0 shots for and 27.2 against a game.
- 02Barzal is day-to-day; without him the second centre spot is weaker.
- 03Both models sit a point or two below the line, and there are only two of them.
- 04Vancouver beat Calgary 4:1 at home ten days ago: this team can still win a game when its goalie gets hot.
Key factThe Islanders have alternated: 6:0 against New Jersey and 4:1 against Chicago at home, but 2:5 at the Rangers and 3:5 to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Vancouver have lost four straight, three of them by three goals or more (2:7 in Carolina, 1:4 in New Jersey, 2:6 at the Rangers), and have conceded 5.00 goals a game this season.
Full match analysis