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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Elmont

NY IslandersvsVancouver New York Islanders vs Vancouver Canucks · hockey prediction

Score
3:2
Date · UK
14 OCT
Local time
19:45 · 13 OCT
City
Elmont
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win NY Islanders vs Vancouver?

Our Islanders vs Canucks prediction: the New York Islanders beat the Vancouver Canucks at UBS Arena, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 4:2. Vancouver were the weakest team in the league last season (35.4% of points), have lost four in a row and kill only 52.0% of penalties. Ilya Sorokin (.937) and Kevin Lankinen (.786) are the expected goalies, neither confirmed yet.

Predicted score · alt 2:3
4:2
Our estimate
64–68%
NY Islanders win · incl. OT · odds 1.45Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
NY Islanders win · incl. OT
Price now
1.45

NY Islanders vs Vancouver at a glance

MatchNew York Islanders vs Vancouver Canucks
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off14 OCT · 00:45 UK
VenueUBS Arena, Elmont
Our pickNY Islanders win · incl. OT · 1.45 · bet
Our estimate64–68%
Predicted score4:2
Main reasonWe see the cleanest script of the night here.
No. 04 · Form

NY Islanders vs Vancouver: recent form

NY Islanders 2-3 in their last 5. Vancouver 1-4.

NY Islanders
Lost at home to Tampa Bay on Sat 10 Oct · three days of rest · third straight home game
Vancouver
Lost to the Rangers in New York on Sun 11 Oct · two days of rest · fourth straight road game, third game in four nights
NY Islanders2-3
  • Lossvs Tampa Bay3:5
  • Winvs Chicago4:1
  • Lossvs NY Rangers2:5
  • Winvs New Jersey6:0
  • Lossvs Toronto1:2
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.60
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Vancouver1-4
  • Lossvs NY Rangers2:6
  • Lossvs New Jersey1:4
  • Lossvs Carolina2:7
  • Lossvs Vegas2:3
  • Winvs Calgary4:1
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
2.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
4.20
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Key factThe Islanders have alternated: 6:0 against New Jersey and 4:1 against Chicago at home, but 2:5 at the Rangers and 3:5 to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Vancouver have lost four straight, three of them by three goals or more (2:7 in Carolina, 1:4 in New Jersey, 2:6 at the Rangers), and have conceded 5.00 goals a game this season.
Attack & defenceNYIVAN
Wins and losses.2-3-02-5-0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.3.203.43
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.2.605.00
Shots on goal per game.24.021.9
Shots against27.230.7
Special teamsNYIVAN
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.25.0%19.0%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.84.2%52.0%
Last seasonNYIVAN
Wins and losses.43-34-525-49-8
Points %55.5%35.4%
Goal difference per game-0.10-1.22
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.16.5%21.8%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.80.8%71.5%

NHL 2026-27, 5 and 7 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

NY Islanders vs Vancouver: starting goalies and team news

Sorokin and Lankinen expected; neither is confirmed yet.

NY IslandersExpected
Ilya Sorokin
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.937
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
1.77
Wins and losses.
2-2-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:25 UTC on 13 Oct, before the morning skate; the Islanders' No. 1 by starts
VancouverExpected
Kevin Lankinen
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.786
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
6.88
Wins and losses.
1-5-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:25 UTC on 13 Oct, before the morning skate; Vancouver's No. 1 by starts this season
NY Islanders
  • DoubtMathew BarzalDay-to-day
  • OutAlexander RomanovInjured reserve
Vancouver
  • OutThatcher DemkoOut, reason not given
  • OutFilip ChytilInjured reserve
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Ilya Sorokin (2-2-0, .937, one shutout) for the Islanders and Kevin Lankinen (1-5-0, .786) for Vancouver, both unconfirmed before the morning skate. Over three seasons Sorokin is at .908 and Lankinen at .884. Mathew Barzal is day-to-day and missed Saturday's game; Alexander Romanov is on injured reserve. The Islanders' top line is Heineman, Horvat and Palmieri, with Stanley and Schaefer as the top pair. Vancouver are without Thatcher Demko and Filip Chytil (injured reserve); Pettersson centres DeBrusk and Lekkerimaki, and Buium and Hronek are the top pair.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in NY Islanders vs Vancouver?

Both models we checked pick the Islanders.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsIslanders 63.9%, projected 3.66 to 2.50Same side
DimersIslanders 63.5%Same side
Our positionWe agree with both: the Islanders win. The models sit a point or two below the line at around 64%, and DRatings projects a gap of more than a goal. We take the win with overtime included, so a 3:2 after overtime still counts.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

NY Islanders vs Vancouver predicted score

Sorokin holds, the power play finds a leaky penalty kill.

4:2 to the Islanders is our main score: Vancouver average 21.9 shots a game, Sorokin stops what gets through, and the home power play scores against a penalty kill that has let in almost half of its chances. 2:3 to Vancouver after overtime or a shootout is the alternative if Lankinen has his night and the Islanders, without Barzal, cannot turn their chances into goals. Any Islanders win, 4:2, 3:1 or 3:2 after overtime, wins our pick; any Vancouver win loses it.

Predicted score
4:2
Alternative
2:3
Your score
NYI4
VAN2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our NY Islanders vs Vancouver pick: NY Islanders win · incl. OT

NY Islanders win · incl. OT: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We see the cleanest script of the night here. The Islanders are at home after three days of rest; Vancouver come in on their fourth straight road game, third in four nights, after four defeats in a row. Last season Vancouver took 35.4% of the points and had a goal difference of -1.22 a game, and this season they kill only 52.0% of penalties. Sorokin is in form at .937. The Islanders have not convinced yet, but this is the kind of game they have to win, so we take the win with overtime included.

Our probability64–68%
Our pickNY Islanders win · incl. OT
Odds1.45
Main scenario4:2
Our scenario
4:2alternative 2:3

What would change our mind Semyon Varlamov starting in place of Sorokin after the morning skate would make us reprice the game; Barzal's return would only add to our pick.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
NY Islanders win · incl. OT1.4569%
Vancouver win · incl. OT2.7536.4%
Vancouver +1.51.7357.8%

Odds snapshot 13 OCT 06:36 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. The Islanders are 2-3-0 and have been outshot this season, 24.0 shots for and 27.2 against a game.
  2. Barzal is day-to-day; without him the second centre spot is weaker.
  3. Both models sit a point or two below the line, and there are only two of them.
  4. Vancouver beat Calgary 4:1 at home ten days ago: this team can still win a game when its goalie gets hot.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet NY Islanders win · incl. OT at 1.45, a single.

Market
NY Islanders win · incl. OT
Odds
1.45
Published
13 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · NY Islanders win · incl. OT at 1.45
No. 12 · After the match
We said
4:2Bet at 1.45
Happened
3:2NY Islanders win
Won

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    FAQ

    What does Bet mean?

    We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.