Single · No. 79 · 13 OCTLost
Nashville vs Vegas
- 01Nashville vs VegasNashville +1.51.42 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.42
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 66–70%
Published 13 OCT 06:33
Odds: average of 16 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3618+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 16 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3618+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL single: Nashville +1.5 at home to Vegas. The Golden Knights lost 2:4 in Minnesota last night and play the second night of a back-to-back with Adin Hill expected in goal; Nashville have had three days of rest, and any Nashville win or a Vegas win by one goal wins the pick.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 14 OCT · 01:45 UK
Nashville vs Vegas
Nashville +1.51.42Lost
Why this pickVegas come off a 2:4 defeat in Minnesota and a 1,113 km flight, on the second night of a back-to-back. Nashville are rested, and three of their five games were decided by one goal or in overtime and a shootout. DRatings projects a gap of 0.83 goals: a Vegas win by one goal still wins the pick.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 2:3
- Our estimate · Nashville +1.5
- 66–70%
Form · Nashville 2-3 in their last 5. Vegas 4-1.
Nashville2-3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Ottawa2:3 SO
- Winvs Montreal5:2
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:5 OT
- Winvs Dallas2:1
- Lossvs Minnesota1:3
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Vegas4-1
- Lossvs Minnesota2:4
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles2:1 OT
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:3 SO
- Winvs Seattle6:2
- Winvs Vancouver3:2
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Nashville
- OutJustus AnnunenInjured reserve
- OutWilliam TrudeauInjured reserve
- DoubtMavrik BourqueDay-to-day
- Vegas
- OutVictor OlofssonOut, reason not given
- OutParker WotherspoonOut, reason not given
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe do not argue with the favourite: Vegas may well win. But DRatings projects a gap of 0.83 goals, and a Vegas win by one goal is still a winning result for Nashville +1.5. That is the bet we make, rather than picking the winner of a tired team against a rested one.
Scenario & score
A tired favourite against a rested home side. 2:3 to Vegas, possibly after overtime, is our main score: Vegas keep their edge in shots but, on the second night of a back-to-back and with their backup in goal, do not pull away. 3:2 to Nashville is the alternative if Saros and the extra rest decide the third period. Nashville +1.5 wins with any Nashville win and with 3:2, 2:1 or any overtime or shootout win for Vegas. It loses with a Vegas win by two goals or more: 4:2, 3:1, 5:2, or an empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Vegas outshoot their opponents this season, 31.6 shots for and 24.6 against; Nashville are at 21.8 and 30.0.
- 02DRatings gives Vegas 57.7% and a gap of 0.83 goals, more than the line.
- 03An empty-net goal at the end of a 3:2 game is the classic way a +1.5 loses.
- 04The price is close to the lower limit we accept for this kind of pick.
Key factNashville rarely lose big: of their five games, three went to one goal or to overtime and a shootout (2:1 against Dallas, 4:5 after overtime in Toronto, 2:3 in a shootout in Ottawa). Vegas won four in a row, two of them after overtime or a shootout, before losing 2:4 in Minnesota on Monday.
Full match analysis