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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Nashville

NashvillevsVegas Nashville Predators vs Vegas Golden Knights · hockey prediction

Score
2:5
Date · UK
14 OCT
Local time
19:45 · 13 OCT
City
Nashville
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Nashville vs Vegas?

Our Predators vs Golden Knights prediction: Nashville +1.5 at Bridgestone Arena, and a tight game that Vegas win 3:2 at best. The Vegas Golden Knights lost 2:4 in Minnesota last night and play the second night of a back-to-back with Adin Hill expected in goal; the Nashville Predators have had three days of rest, with Juuse Saros expected. Any Nashville win, or a Vegas win by one goal, wins the pick.

Predicted score · alt 3:2
2:3
Our estimate
66–70%
Nashville +1.5 · odds 1.42Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Nashville +1.5
Price now
1.42

Nashville vs Vegas at a glance

MatchNashville Predators vs Vegas Golden Knights
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off14 OCT · 01:45 UK
VenueBridgestone Arena, Nashville
Our pickNashville +1.5 · 1.42 · bet
Our estimate66–70%
Predicted score2:3
Main reasonWe do not believe a Vegas team that lost last night in Minnesota and flew 1,113 km will take apart a rested Nashville.
No. 04 · Form

Nashville vs Vegas: recent form

Nashville 2-3 in their last 5. Vegas 4-1.

Nashville
Lost in a shootout in Ottawa on Sat 10 Oct · three days of rest · first home game after a road trip
Vegas
Lost in Minnesota on Mon 12 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 1,113 km trip from St. Paul, fourth game in seven days
Nashville2-3
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Ottawa2:3 SO
  • Winvs Montreal5:2
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:5 OT
  • Winvs Dallas2:1
  • Lossvs Minnesota1:3
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
2.80
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.80
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
40%
Vegas4-1
  • Lossvs Minnesota2:4
  • Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles2:1 OT
  • Win in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:3 SO
  • Winvs Seattle6:2
  • Winvs Vancouver3:2
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.40
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.40
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
40%
Key factNashville rarely lose big: of their five games, three went to one goal or to overtime and a shootout (2:1 against Dallas, 4:5 after overtime in Toronto, 2:3 in a shootout in Ottawa). Vegas won four in a row, two of them after overtime or a shootout, before losing 2:4 in Minnesota on Monday.
Attack & defenceNSHVGK
Wins and losses.2-1-25-2-0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.2.803.57
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.2.802.57
Shots on goal per game.21.831.6
Shots against30.024.6
Special teamsNSHVGK
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.31.6%25.0%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.82.4%76.5%
Last seasonNSHVGK
Wins and losses.38-34-1039-26-17
Points %52.4%57.9%
Goal difference per game-0.27+0.18
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.23.1%24.6%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.81.7%81.4%

NHL 2026-27, 5 and 7 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Nashville vs Vegas: starting goalies and team news

Hill likely for Vegas after Hart played last night; Saros expected for Nashville.

NashvilleExpected
Juuse Saros
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.915
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
2.72
Wins and losses.
2-1-1
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:25 UTC on 13 Oct, before the morning skate; Nashville's No. 1 by starts
VegasExpected
Adin Hill
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.886
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
2.41
Wins and losses.
2-0-0
Daily Faceoff: likely, per @SinBinVegas at 00:18 UTC on 13 Oct; Carter Hart started on Monday in Minnesota
Nashville
  • OutJustus AnnunenInjured reserve
  • OutWilliam TrudeauInjured reserve
  • DoubtMavrik BourqueDay-to-day
Vegas
  • OutVictor OlofssonOut, reason not given
  • OutParker WotherspoonOut, reason not given
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Adin Hill (2-0-0, .886) as likely for Vegas, per @SinBinVegas; Carter Hart started on Monday in Minnesota. Hill is not injured: he was the backup on Monday, and over three seasons he and Hart are level (.895 and .894). Juuse Saros (2-1-1, .915) is expected for Nashville, unconfirmed. Nashville are without Justus Annunen and William Trudeau (injured reserve), with Mavrik Bourque day-to-day; Stamkos, O'Reilly and Marchessault are the top line, Hague and Josi the top pair. Vegas are without Victor Olofsson and Parker Wotherspoon; Barbashev, Eichel and Stone are the top line.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Nashville vs Vegas?

Both models pick Vegas, but neither sees a big win.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsVegas 57.7%, projected 3.52 to 2.69Other side
DimersVegas 54.3%Other side
Our positionWe do not argue with the favourite: Vegas may well win. But DRatings projects a gap of 0.83 goals, and a Vegas win by one goal is still a winning result for Nashville +1.5. That is the bet we make, rather than picking the winner of a tired team against a rested one.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Nashville vs Vegas predicted score

A tired favourite against a rested home side.

2:3 to Vegas, possibly after overtime, is our main score: Vegas keep their edge in shots but, on the second night of a back-to-back and with their backup in goal, do not pull away. 3:2 to Nashville is the alternative if Saros and the extra rest decide the third period. Nashville +1.5 wins with any Nashville win and with 3:2, 2:1 or any overtime or shootout win for Vegas. It loses with a Vegas win by two goals or more: 4:2, 3:1, 5:2, or an empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2.

Predicted score
2:3
Alternative
3:2
Your score
NSH2
VGK3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Nashville vs Vegas pick: Nashville +1.5

Nashville +1.5: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We do not believe a Vegas team that lost last night in Minnesota and flew 1,113 km will take apart a rested Nashville. Teams in this spot, an away favourite on the second night of a back-to-back against a rested home side, are a pattern we avoid backing, and our rule there is the underdog +1.5. Nashville have lost only one game this season by two goals, and Saros at home is steady. Most likely the game is decided by one goal, and that is enough for us.

Our probability66–70%
Our pickNashville +1.5
Odds1.42
Main scenario2:3
Wins with
3:24:23:12:14:35:2…
Loses with
2:41:30:2…
Our scenario
2:3alternative 3:2

What would change our mind If the price for Nashville +1.5 had dropped below 1.40 before publication, there would be no bet. Carter Hart starting instead of Hill would not change our view: the reason is the back-to-back, not the goalie.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Nashville +1.51.4270.4%
Nashville win · incl. OT2.0050%
Vegas win · incl. OT1.8055.6%

Odds snapshot 13 OCT 06:36 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Vegas outshoot their opponents this season, 31.6 shots for and 24.6 against; Nashville are at 21.8 and 30.0.
  2. DRatings gives Vegas 57.7% and a gap of 0.83 goals, more than the line.
  3. An empty-net goal at the end of a 3:2 game is the classic way a +1.5 loses.
  4. The price is close to the lower limit we accept for this kind of pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Nashville +1.5 at 1.42, a single.

Market
Nashville +1.5
Odds
1.42
Published
13 OCT 06:33
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Nashville +1.5 at 1.42
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:3Bet at 1.42
Happened
2:5Vegas win
Lost

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    FAQ

    What does Bet mean?

    We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.