Single · No. 78 · 13 OCTWon
NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay
- 01NY Rangers vs Tampa BayNY Rangers +1.51.54 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.54
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +1.08 units
- Our estimate
- 60–65%
Published 13 OCT 06:33
Odds: average of 16 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3618+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 16 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3618+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL single: the Rangers +1.5 at home to Tampa Bay. The Rangers kill 90.0% of penalties and Tampa convert 10.0% of power plays; both models give Tampa about 56.6%, and a Tampa win by one goal still wins the pick.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 14 OCT · 00:15 UK
NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay
NY Rangers +1.51.54Won
Why this pickThe Rangers are 5-2-0 and beat Tampa 5:1 on 1 October. DRatings projects a gap of 0.72 goals, so a one-goal game is our main scenario. The risk is in goal: Dylan Garand has five NHL starts, in place of the injured Igor Shesterkin.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 2:3
- Our estimate · NY Rangers +1.5
- 60–65%
Form · NY Rangers 4-1 in their last 5. Tampa Bay 4-1.
NY Rangers4-1
- Winvs Vancouver6:2
- Lossvs Washington1:3
- Winvs NY Islanders5:2
- Winvs Utah4:2
- Winvs Detroit2:0
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.60
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 1.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Tampa Bay4-1
- Winvs NY Islanders5:3
- Winvs Minnesota3:2
- Winvs Philadelphia4:1
- Winvs Washington3:1
- Lossvs NY Rangers1:5
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Lineups · Expected
- NY Rangers
- OutIgor ShesterkinLower body, out for the season
- OutJoonas KorpisaloInjured reserve
- OutJoe VelenoInjured reserve
- Tampa Bay
- OutYanni GourdeOut, reason not given
- DoubtEmil LillebergDay-to-day
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe think Tampa Bay win too, but the models give them about 56.6%, two points less than the line, and DRatings projects a gap of 0.72 goals. That points to a one-goal game, so we take the Rangers +1.5 rather than a side.
Scenario & score
Tampa have the better goalie; the Rangers have the penalty kill. 2:3 to Tampa Bay is our main score: Vasilevskiy and the deeper roster edge it, but a Rangers penalty kill at 90.0% keeps the game from opening up. 3:2 to the Rangers is the alternative if Garand holds again, as the Rangers did in the 5:1 on 1 October. Rangers +1.5 wins with any Rangers win and with 3:2, 2:1 or 4:3 after overtime for Tampa Bay. It loses with 3:1, 4:2 or 5:2 for Tampa Bay, or with an empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01The Rangers' goalie has five NHL starts; Tampa Bay's has the best three-season save percentage in the game (.917).
- 02Tampa Bay have won four in a row, three of them by two goals or more.
- 03The Rangers are level on shots (23.3 for, 23.7 against): part of their 5-2-0 comes from their goalies.
- 04This is our least confident bet of the night.
Key factThe Rangers have won four of their last five, including 5:2 against the Islanders and 6:2 against Vancouver on Sunday; their only defeat was 1:3 in Washington. Tampa Bay lost 1:5 at Madison Square Garden on 1 October and have won all four games since, three of them by two goals or more (3:1, 4:1, 5:3).
Full match analysis