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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · New York

NY RangersvsTampa Bay New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning · hockey prediction

Score
4:1
Date · UK
14 OCT
Local time
19:15 · 13 OCT
City
New York
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay?

Our Rangers vs Lightning prediction: New York Rangers +1.5 at Madison Square Garden, with Tampa Bay winning 3:2 as our main score. The Tampa Bay Lightning have won four straight, but the Rangers are 5-2-0, kill 90.0% of penalties and beat Tampa 5:1 on 1 October, while Tampa's power play converts 10.0%. The question is in goal: Dylan Garand, with five NHL starts, replaces Igor Shesterkin, who is out for the season.

Predicted score · alt 3:2
2:3
Our estimate
60–65%
NY Rangers +1.5 · odds 1.54Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
NY Rangers +1.5
Price now
1.54

NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay at a glance

MatchNew York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off14 OCT · 00:15 UK
VenueMadison Square Garden, New York
Our pickNY Rangers +1.5 · 1.54 · bet
Our estimate60–65%
Predicted score2:3
Main reasonWe think Tampa Bay win this, but not by much.
No. 04 · Form

NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay: recent form

NY Rangers 4-1 in their last 5. Tampa Bay 4-1.

NY Rangers
Beat Vancouver at home on Sun 11 Oct · two days of rest · second straight home game
Tampa Bay
Won at the Islanders on Sat 10 Oct · three days of rest · second straight road game, short trip from Elmont
NY Rangers4-1
  • Winvs Vancouver6:2
  • Lossvs Washington1:3
  • Winvs NY Islanders5:2
  • Winvs Utah4:2
  • Winvs Detroit2:0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.60
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
1.80
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Tampa Bay4-1
  • Winvs NY Islanders5:3
  • Winvs Minnesota3:2
  • Winvs Philadelphia4:1
  • Winvs Washington3:1
  • Lossvs NY Rangers1:5
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.40
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Key factThe Rangers have won four of their last five, including 5:2 against the Islanders and 6:2 against Vancouver on Sunday; their only defeat was 1:3 in Washington. Tampa Bay lost 1:5 at Madison Square Garden on 1 October and have won all four games since, three of them by two goals or more (3:1, 4:1, 5:3).
Attack & defenceNYRTBL
Wins and losses.5-2-04-1-0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.3.293.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.1.862.40
Shots on goal per game.23.330.2
Shots against23.724.0
Special teamsNYRTBL
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.26.3%10.0%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.90.0%72.7%
Last seasonNYRTBL
Wins and losses.34-39-950-26-6
Points %47.0%64.6%
Goal difference per game-0.15+0.72
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.24.7%20.7%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.79.9%82.6%

NHL 2026-27, 7 and 5 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay: starting goalies and team news

Garand expected in place of the injured Shesterkin; Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay.

NY RangersExpected
Dylan Garand
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.945
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
1.20
Wins and losses.
2-1-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:25 UTC on 13 Oct; next in line after Igor Shesterkin's season-ending injury (The Hockey News), won his last start on 11 Oct
Tampa BayExpected
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.892
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
2.29
Wins and losses.
3-1-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:25 UTC on 13 Oct, before the morning skate; Tampa Bay's No. 1 by starts
NY Rangers
  • OutIgor ShesterkinLower body, out for the season
  • OutJoonas KorpisaloInjured reserve
  • OutJoe VelenoInjured reserve
Tampa Bay
  • OutYanni GourdeOut, reason not given
  • DoubtEmil LillebergDay-to-day
TacticsIgor Shesterkin is out for the rest of the season with a lower-body injury picked up on 9 October in Washington (The Hockey News), and Joonas Korpisalo is on injured reserve. Daily Faceoff lists Dylan Garand (2-1-0, .945, one shutout), who stopped 19 of 21 shots against Vancouver on Sunday; he has five NHL starts. Andrei Vasilevskiy (3-1-0, .892) is expected for Tampa Bay, .917 over three seasons. Both are unconfirmed before the morning skate. Joe Veleno is also out for the Rangers; Tampa Bay are without Yanni Gourde, with Emil Lilleberg day-to-day.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay?

Both models pick Tampa Bay, by less than the line does.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsTampa Bay 56.7%, projected 3.21 to 2.49Other side
DimersTampa Bay 56.5%Other side
Our positionWe think Tampa Bay win too, but the models give them about 56.6%, two points less than the line, and DRatings projects a gap of 0.72 goals. That points to a one-goal game, so we take the Rangers +1.5 rather than a side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay predicted score

Tampa have the better goalie; the Rangers have the penalty kill.

2:3 to Tampa Bay is our main score: Vasilevskiy and the deeper roster edge it, but a Rangers penalty kill at 90.0% keeps the game from opening up. 3:2 to the Rangers is the alternative if Garand holds again, as the Rangers did in the 5:1 on 1 October. Rangers +1.5 wins with any Rangers win and with 3:2, 2:1 or 4:3 after overtime for Tampa Bay. It loses with 3:1, 4:2 or 5:2 for Tampa Bay, or with an empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2.

Predicted score
2:3
Alternative
3:2
Your score
NYR2
TBL3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay pick: NY Rangers +1.5

NY Rangers +1.5: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Tampa Bay win this, but not by much. The Rangers kill 90.0% of penalties and Tampa convert only 10.0% of their power plays, so Tampa cannot easily break the game open on special teams. Garand has stopped .945 of shots in his starts this season. 'Tampa by one goal, or the Rangers' looks more likely to us than 'Tampa by two'.

Our probability60–65%
Our pickNY Rangers +1.5
Odds1.54
Main scenario2:3
Wins with
3:24:23:12:14:35:2…
Loses with
2:41:30:2…
Our scenario
2:3alternative 3:2

What would change our mind If the Rangers start a goalie with no NHL games, such as Callum Tung, instead of Garand, or the price for Rangers +1.5 drops below 1.40, there is no bet.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
NY Rangers +1.51.5464.9%
NY Rangers win · incl. OT2.3043.5%
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT1.6261.7%

Odds snapshot 13 OCT 06:36 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. The Rangers' goalie has five NHL starts; Tampa Bay's has the best three-season save percentage in the game (.917).
  2. Tampa Bay have won four in a row, three of them by two goals or more.
  3. The Rangers are level on shots (23.3 for, 23.7 against): part of their 5-2-0 comes from their goalies.
  4. This is our least confident bet of the night.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet NY Rangers +1.5 at 1.54, a single.

Market
NY Rangers +1.5
Odds
1.54
Published
13 OCT 06:33
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · NY Rangers +1.5 at 1.54
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:3Bet at 1.54
Happened
4:1NY Rangers win
Won

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    FAQ

    What does Bet mean?

    We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.