ENES
Join the club
Single · No. 76 · 13 OCTWon

Zverev vs Bublik

  1. 01Alexander Zverev vs Alexander BublikAlexander Zverev win1.36 · Won
Total odds
1.36
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.36 units
Our estimate
67–71%
Published 13 OCT 06:30
Odds: average of 34 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 06:3218+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Alexander Zverev to beat Alexander Bublik in the Shanghai Masters fourth round: the top seed is 60-15 this season and holds serve in 94.7% of his games over his last ten matches with stats, against Bublik’s 86.2%.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 13 OCT · 11:00 UK

Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik

Alexander Zverev win1.36Won
Why this pickZverev wins 55.8% of second-serve points to Bublik’s 50.4% and did not face a break point against Halys on Sunday. Bublik leads their meetings 3-1 and Zverev’s ankle is the risk, so we expect tie-breaks; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
67–71%

Form · Zverev has won 8 of his last 10; Bublik won two tie-break finishes in Shanghai

Alexander ZverevLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Shelton B. 6-3, 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-2
  2. Won v Dodig M. 6-4, 7-6(3)
  3. Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-4
  4. Lost to De Minaur A. 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9
  5. Won v Tien L. 7-6(3), 6-3
  6. Won v Norrie C. 7-6(1), 6-4
  7. Won v Shang J. 6-0, 6-3
  8. Lost to Djokovic N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
  9. Won v Wu Y. 6-4, 7-6(4)
  10. Won v Halys Q. 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3
Alexander BublikLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Molcan A. 6-3, 6-2
  2. Won v Etcheverry T. 6-3, 6-4
  3. Lost to Halys Q. 6-4, 7-6(6)
  4. Won v Wolf J. 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1
  5. Won v Mannarino A. 6-3, 6-1, 6-1
  6. Lost to Paul T. 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
  7. Lost to Jodar R. 6-2, 6-3
  8. Lost to Mensik J. 6-4, 7-6(5)
  9. Won v Machac T. 6-4, 7-6(4)
  10. Won v Nakashima B. 6(7)-7, 6-3, 7-6(5)

Stats comparison

StatZverevBublik
On hard courts29-917-10
Last 10 matches8-26-4
Service games held94.7%86.2%
Return games won20.8%20.6%

Our scenario

7:6, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Zverev in two sets. Both serve big (Bublik 12.4 aces a match, Zverev 10.9), so we expect few breaks. Zverev’s second serve is the difference: 55.8% of points won against Bublik’s 50.4%, and he saves 72.0% of break points to Bublik’s 63.3%. Our main line is 7:6, 6:4. If Bublik takes the first set, as he did in all four of their meetings, Zverev can still win in three, and that also wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Zverev had ankle trouble in both his Shanghai matches (a fall on 9 October, discomfort and a limp on 11 October); his condition has not been described officially.
  2. 02Bublik leads their meetings 3-1, won both on hard courts and has won the first set every time they have played.
  3. 03Bublik serves 12.4 aces a match and won his last two matches with tie-breaks.
  4. 04Zverev may have little left to play for this season if, as Tennis Majors calculated, the year-end No. 1 is already his.
Zverev’s weekHe beat Wu Yibing 6:4, 7:6 on 9 October after a fall late in the second set, and Quentin Halys 6:4, 6:7, 6:3 on 11 October in 2 hours 17 minutes without facing a break point. Punto de Break reported ankle discomfort and a limp at the end of the Halys match; the ATP report says nothing about it and there is no diagnosis.
Full match analysis