Alexander ZverevvsAlexander Bublik prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Who will win Zverev vs Bublik?
Alexander Zverev, the No. 1 seed, plays Alexander Bublik in the Shanghai Masters fourth round on Tuesday. We back Zverev to win the match, most likely in two sets with a tie-break.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 67–71%
- Our pick
- Alexander Zverev win
- Odds at publish
- 1.36
- Set by set
- 7:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Zverev vs Bublik at a glance
| Match | Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Fourth round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 13 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Fourth match on court, after de Minaur v Khachanov and Gea v Mensik (not before 6:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Alexander Zverev win · 1.36 · bet |
| Our estimate | 67–71% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (7:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Zverev is the world No. |
Zverev vs Bublik: recent form
Zverev has won 8 of his last 10; Bublik won two tie-break finishes in Shanghai
- Won v Shelton B. 6-3, 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-2
- Won v Dodig M. 6-4, 7-6(3)
- Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-4
- Lost to De Minaur A. 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9
- Won v Tien L. 7-6(3), 6-3
- Won v Norrie C. 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Shang J. 6-0, 6-3
- Lost to Djokovic N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Wu Y. 6-4, 7-6(4)
- Won v Halys Q. 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3
- Won v Molcan A. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Etcheverry T. 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Halys Q. 6-4, 7-6(6)
- Won v Wolf J. 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1
- Won v Mannarino A. 6-3, 6-1, 6-1
- Lost to Paul T. 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
- Lost to Jodar R. 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Mensik J. 6-4, 7-6(5)
- Won v Machac T. 6-4, 7-6(4)
- Won v Nakashima B. 6(7)-7, 6-3, 7-6(5)
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Halys Q.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3 |
| Won v | Wu Y.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Djokovic N.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Shang J.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-0, 6-3 |
| Won v | Norrie C.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Tien L.Laver Cup · 27.09.26 | 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| Lost to | De Minaur A.Laver Cup · 26.09.26 | 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9 |
| Won v | Prizmic D.Davis Cup · 20.09.26 | 6-2, 6-4 |
| Won v | Dodig M.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(3) |
| Won v | Shelton B.US Open · 13.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-2 |
| Won v | Nakashima B.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 6(7)-7, 6-3, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Machac T.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Mensik J.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(5) |
| Lost to | Jodar R.Laver Cup · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Paul T.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| Won v | Mannarino A.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Wolf J.US Open · 31.08.26 | 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Halys Q.Kitzbühel · 25.07.26 | 6-4, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Etcheverry T.Kitzbühel · 24.07.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Molcan A.Kitzbühel · 23.07.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
The top seed against the No. 19 seed for a Shanghai quarter-final
- Bublik’s week
- He beat Tomas Machac 6:4, 7:6 and Brandon Nakashima 6:7, 6:3, 7:6. Against Nakashima he hit a drinks fridge after losing the first-set tie-break, cut his right hand and took a medical time-out before winning the match.
- Season and surface
- Zverev is 60-15 this season and 29-9 on hard courts, and won the US Open in September. Bublik is 31-22 and 17-10 on hard courts; he lost his only Beijing match to Jakub Mensik.
- Head to head
- Bublik leads 3-1 and won both hard-court meetings, Rotterdam 2021 and the Montpellier final in 2022. Zverev’s only win came on clay in Monte Carlo in 2023. They have not played since Halle 2023.
- Year-end No. 1
- With Jannik Sinner out for the rest of the season, Tennis Majors calculated on 7 October that Zverev has secured the year-end No. 1 ranking. We have not found an official ATP announcement.
Zverev holds serve in 94.7% of his games over his last ten matches, Bublik 86.2%
| Stat | Zverev | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 60-15 (better) | 31-22 |
| On hard courts | 29-9 (better) | 17-10 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 6-4 |
| As favourite | 59-9 (better) | 28-14 |
| As underdog | 1-6 | 3-8 (better) |
| Stat | Zverev | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (8-2) | 10 (6-4) |
| Aces per match | 10.9 | 12.4 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 2.8 (better) | 3.7 |
| 1st serve in | 71.6% (better) | 65.3% |
| 1st serve points won | 78.6% (better) | 77.1% |
| 2nd serve points won | 55.8% (better) | 50.4% |
| Service games held | 94.7% (better) | 86.2% |
| Break points saved | 72.0% (better) | 63.3% |
| Stat | Zverev | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 34.9% | 35.1% (better) |
| Return games won | 20.8% (better) | 20.6% |
| Break points converted | 46.6% (better) | 46.4% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 12 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Alexander Zverev 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Alexander Bublik 20.07.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
Bublik leads 3-1
| 2023 | BublikHalle · Grass · SF | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023 | ZverevMonte Carlo Masters · Clay · R64 | 3-6 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022 | BublikMontpellier · Hard · F | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021 | BublikRotterdam · Hard · R32 | 7-5 6-3 |
Who do others back in Zverev vs Bublik?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Zverev the most likely winner, 72% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Zverev 78.4% | Same side |
| Last Word on Sports | Zverev in three sets | Same side |
| Scores24 | Favours Zverev; over 22.5 games | Same side |
| Australian preview site | Bublik to win a set | Other side |
Zverev vs Bublik predicted score
Zverev in two sets
Both serve big (Bublik 12.4 aces a match, Zverev 10.9), so we expect few breaks. Zverev’s second serve is the difference: 55.8% of points won against Bublik’s 50.4%, and he saves 72.0% of break points to Bublik’s 63.3%. Our main line is 7:6, 6:4. If Bublik takes the first set, as he did in all four of their meetings, Zverev can still win in three, and that also wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 7:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
Our Zverev vs Bublik pick: Alexander Zverev win
Zverev to win the match
Zverev is the world No. 2 and the top seed, 60-15 this season and 29-9 on hard courts. Over his last ten matches with stats he holds 94.7% of his service games and wins 55.8% of second-serve points, against Bublik’s 86.2% and 50.4%, and he did not face a break point against Quentin Halys on Sunday. Bublik leads their meetings 3-1, but the last one was in 2023. The ankle is the real risk, which is why our confidence is moderate; we expect 7:6, 6:4, and a three-set win also wins the bet.
- Our scenario
- 7:6, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news before the match about Zverev’s ankle: strapping, a cancelled practice or words from his team.
What could beat our pick?
- Zverev had ankle trouble in both his Shanghai matches (a fall on 9 October, discomfort and a limp on 11 October); his condition has not been described officially.
- Bublik leads their meetings 3-1, won both on hard courts and has won the first set every time they have played.
- Bublik serves 12.4 aces a match and won his last two matches with tie-breaks.
- Zverev may have little left to play for this season if, as Tennis Majors calculated, the year-end No. 1 is already his.
Bet
We back Zverev to win the match: he holds serve in 94.7% of his games over his last ten matches with stats, against Bublik’s 86.2%, and is 59-9 as the favourite this season.