Single · No. 89 · 14 OCTLost
Efes vs Bayern
- 01Efes vs BayernEfes win1.39 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.39
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
Published 14 OCT 06:35
Odds: average of 22 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 22 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Anadolu Efes to beat Bayern Munich in Istanbul, EuroLeague round 5. Bayern have lost three in a row; Efes are without Mike James, which the line already prices, and still sit at 68%.
Leg 1 · Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · 14 OCT · 18:30 UK
Efes vs Bayern
Efes win1.39Lost
Why this pickBoth sides are 1-3, but Bayern have lost three in a row, two of them at home, conceding 86 to 94 points. Our rating card makes Efes about five points better with home court (66%), close to the line's 68%. The risk is Mike James, out for the season with an Achilles injury: the one game Efes played without him ended 66:89 against Olympiacos. The line already knows that and still backs Efes. We expect 84:77.
- Predicted score · alt 78:80
- 84:77
- Our estimate · Anadolu Efes win
- 64–68%
Form · Anadolu Efes 1-4 in their last 5. Bayern 1-4.
Anadolu Efes1-4
- Lossvs Olympiacos66:89
- Lossvs Crvena Zvezda72:77
- Winvs Real Madrid94:84
- Lossvs Barcelona82:89
- Lossvs Panathinaikos62:97
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 75.2
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 87.2
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 162.4
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −12.0
Bayern1-4
- Lossvs Virtus Bologna87:94
- Lossvs Partizan84:86
- Lossvs Fenerbahçe76:100
- Winvs Hapoel Tel Aviv86:84
- Lossvs Barcelona69:95
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 80.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 91.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 172.2
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −11.4
Lineups · Expected
- Anadolu Efes
- OutMike JamesAchilles tendon tear on 1 Oct, surgery, out 7 to 9 months
- OutIsaia CordinierSurgery in May, has not played this season
- OutGeorgios PapagiannisACL rehab since October 2025, not in the rotation
- Bayern
- QuestionableMiles NorrisMissed round 4 after dental surgery; status for this game not confirmed
What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect a similar margin, seven points. Our rating gives Efes −5.5 only 48%, so we play the win, not the handicap.
Scenario & score
Saric and Fernando inside, Bayern fading after half-time. 84:77 is our main score: Dario Saric and Bruno Fernando win the paint against Johannes Thiemann and Austin Wiley, Cam Payne and Matthew Strazel keep the pace without James, and Bayern fade in the second half as they did in their last three games. 78:80 to Bayern is the alternative: Andreas Obst and Duane Washington hit from deep, and Efes, without their lead guard, lose the ball late, as in the 66:89 at Olympiacos. The pick wins with any Efes win, overtime included, and loses with a Bayern win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Efes have played one game without Mike James and lost it by 23, at Olympiacos.
- 02Our rating for Efes still contains three games with James in the lineup, so the team may be weaker now than the numbers say.
- 03Bayern have already won away this season, 86:84 against Hapoel Tel Aviv, and their two home defeats were by 2 and 7 points.
- 04We found only one outside preview, and neither club had published a report before the game.
Key factBoth sides are 1-3, but their starts differ. Efes lost at Barcelona, at Crvena Zvezda and at Olympiacos and beat Real Madrid 94:84 in their only home game; adjusted for opponents, their four games are close to level. Bayern lost 76:100 at Fenerbahçe, then 84:86 to Partizan and 87:94 to Virtus at home; their only win was 86:84 against Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Full match analysis