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Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 5 · Istanbul

Anadolu EfesvsBayern Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs FC Bayern Munich · basketball prediction

Score
93:101
Date · UK
14 OCT
Local time
20:30 · 14 OCT
City
Istanbul
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Anadolu Efes vs Bayern?

Our Anadolu Efes vs Bayern prediction: Efes win at home in Istanbul, 84:77, overtime included. Both teams are 1-3 in the EuroLeague, but Bayern have lost three in a row, two of them at home, and play 4.2 points a game below their level. Efes are without Mike James for the season, a loss the line already knows: it still makes them 68% favourites, and our rating says 66%. We back Efes to win, a single.

Predicted score · alt 78:80
84:77
Our estimate
64–68%
Anadolu Efes win · odds 1.39Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Anadolu Efes win
Price now
1.39

Anadolu Efes vs Bayern at a glance

MatchAnadolu Efes Istanbul vs FC Bayern Munich
CompetitionEuroLeague · Regular season, round 5
Kick-off14 OCT · 18:30 UK
VenueTurkcell Basketball Development Center, Istanbul
Our pickAnadolu Efes win · 1.39 · bet
Our estimate64–68%
Predicted score84:77
Main reasonWe think Efes win: they are at home, they rate better than Bayern, and Bayern have lost three in a row while playing four points a game below their level.
No. 04 · Form

Anadolu Efes vs Bayern: recent form

Anadolu Efes 1-4 in their last 5. Bayern 1-4.

Anadolu Efes
Lost 66:89 at Olympiacos on Fri 9 Oct · five days since the last EuroLeague game · second home game of the season
Bayern
Lost 87:94 at home to Virtus on Thu 8 Oct · six days since the last EuroLeague game · 1,584 km trip from Munich
Anadolu Efes1-4
  • Lossvs Olympiacos66:89
  • Lossvs Crvena Zvezda72:77
  • Winvs Real Madrid94:84
  • Lossvs Barcelona82:89
  • Lossvs Panathinaikos62:97
Points scored per game in these games.
75.2
Points allowed per game in these games.
87.2
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
162.4
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
−12.0
Bayern1-4
  • Lossvs Virtus Bologna87:94
  • Lossvs Partizan84:86
  • Lossvs Fenerbahçe76:100
  • Winvs Hapoel Tel Aviv86:84
  • Lossvs Barcelona69:95
Points scored per game in these games.
80.4
Points allowed per game in these games.
91.8
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
172.2
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
−11.4
Key factBoth sides are 1-3, but their starts differ. Efes lost at Barcelona, at Crvena Zvezda and at Olympiacos and beat Real Madrid 94:84 in their only home game; adjusted for opponents, their four games are close to level. Bayern lost 76:100 at Fenerbahçe, then 84:86 to Partizan and 87:94 to Virtus at home; their only win was 86:84 against Hapoel Tel Aviv.
EuroLeague so farEFSFCB
Wins and losses.1-31-3
Point difference per game-6.2-7.7
Last seasonEFSFCB
Wins and losses.12-2617-21
Point difference per game-4.2-2.9

EuroLeague 2026-27, 4 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Anadolu Efes vs Bayern injury report

Efes without Mike James; Bayern wait on Miles Norris.

Anadolu Efes
  • OutMike JamesAchilles tendon tear on 1 Oct, surgery, out 7 to 9 months
  • OutIsaia CordinierSurgery in May, has not played this season
  • OutGeorgios PapagiannisACL rehab since October 2025, not in the rotation
Bayern
  • QuestionableMiles NorrisMissed round 4 after dental surgery; status for this game not confirmed
TacticsMike James tore his Achilles tendon in Belgrade on 1 Oct and needs 7 to 9 months after surgery; he was Efes' main playmaker (21.4 minutes, 3 assists a game). Isaia Cordinier has not played since surgery in May, and Georgios Papagiannis is still out of the rotation after a torn ACL in October 2025. Cam Payne made his debut in round 4. For Bayern, Miles Norris missed round 4 after dental surgery and is not confirmed; Marjon Beauchamp and Oscar da Silva came back in round 4. Neither club had filed its report for round 5 when we checked (about 04:50 UTC, 14 Oct).
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Anadolu Efes vs Bayern?

The one preview with a score has Efes winning by eight.

SourcePickVersus us
SportsgamblerAnadolu Efes 89:81; their main pick is Efes −5.5Same side
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect a similar margin, seven points. Our rating gives Efes −5.5 only 48%, so we play the win, not the handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Anadolu Efes vs Bayern predicted score

Saric and Fernando inside, Bayern fading after half-time.

84:77 is our main score: Dario Saric and Bruno Fernando win the paint against Johannes Thiemann and Austin Wiley, Cam Payne and Matthew Strazel keep the pace without James, and Bayern fade in the second half as they did in their last three games. 78:80 to Bayern is the alternative: Andreas Obst and Duane Washington hit from deep, and Efes, without their lead guard, lose the ball late, as in the 66:89 at Olympiacos. The pick wins with any Efes win, overtime included, and loses with a Bayern win.

Predicted score
84:77
Alternative
78:80
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Anadolu Efes vs Bayern pick: Anadolu Efes win

Anadolu Efes win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Efes win: they are at home, they rate better than Bayern, and Bayern have lost three in a row while playing four points a game below their level. Without James, Efes are less dangerous in close finishes, but the line already knows that and still makes them 68% favourites. Saric and Fernando should win the paint, and Bayern conceded 86 and 94 in their two home defeats. We expect 84:77.

Our probability64–68%
Our pickAnadolu Efes win
Odds1.39
Main scenario84:77
Our scenario
84:77alternative 78:80

What would change our mind Another absence among Efes' top five by minutes (Saric, Strazel, Loyd or Fernando), or the line moving three points or more towards Bayern before tip-off.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Anadolu Efes win1.3971.9%
Bayern win2.9933.4%

Odds snapshot 14 OCT 06:31 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Efes have played one game without Mike James and lost it by 23, at Olympiacos.
  2. Our rating for Efes still contains three games with James in the lineup, so the team may be weaker now than the numbers say.
  3. Bayern have already won away this season, 86:84 against Hapoel Tel Aviv, and their two home defeats were by 2 and 7 points.
  4. We found only one outside preview, and neither club had published a report before the game.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Anadolu Efes win at 1.39, a single.

Market
Anadolu Efes win
Odds
1.39
Published
14 OCT 06:35
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Anadolu Efes win at 1.39
No. 12 · After the match
We said
84:77Bet at 1.39
Happened
93:101Bayern win
Lost

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.