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Single · No. 83 · 14 OCTLost

Kartal vs Bencic

  1. 01Sonay Kartal vs Belinda BencicBelinda Bencic win1.41 · Lost
Total odds
1.41
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
65–68%
Published 13 OCT 18:45
Odds: average of 33 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 18:4818+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Belinda Bencic to beat Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan Open second round: three models give her 65–67%, and Kartal is in her third tournament back from a long injury.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · 14 OCT · 04:00 UK

Sonay Kartal vs Belinda Bencic

Belinda Bencic win1.41Lost
Why this pickBencic had a bye and nine days off; Kartal missed March to September injured and is ranked 170. Bencic’s form (one win in five) is the risk. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
1:2
Our estimate
65–68%

Form · Bencic has won one of her last five; Kartal is 15-7 on hard courts this season

Sonay KartalLast 10: 6-4
  1. Lost to Sasnovich A. 6-4, 6-3
  2. Won v Tararudee L. 6-4, 6-4
  3. Won v Navarro E. 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2)
  4. Won v Keys M. 2-6, 6-2, 6-3
  5. Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 4-3 ret.
  6. Lost to Bouzkova M. 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4
  7. Won v Lazaro Garcia A. 6-2, 6-3
  8. Won v Wang X. 6-3, 6-2
  9. Lost to Charaeva A. 6-4, 6-1
  10. Won v Kalinina A. 7-5, 6-3
Belinda BencicLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Kalinskaya A. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(6)
  2. Lost to Gauff C. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
  3. Won v Stephens S. 6-3, 6-1
  4. Won v Townsend T. 6(5)-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
  5. Won v Eala A. 6-4, 6-0
  6. Lost to Gauff C.
  7. Lost to Boisson L. 6-3
  8. Lost to Putintseva Y. 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
  9. Won v Zakharova A. 6-1, 7-6(3)
  10. Lost to Li A. 6-4, 6-3

Stats comparison

StatKartalBencic
On hard courts15-717-8
Last 10 matches6-45-5
Service games held71.4%74.8%
Return games won34.6%39.5%

Our scenario

4:6, 6:4, 3:6 1:2 in sets

Bencic in three sets. Bencic takes the ball early and controls rallies when her timing is on, but after nine days without a match she may need time. Kartal already has a win on these courts. We expect Bencic to win 6:4, 4:6, 6:3; a straight-sets win also wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Bencic has won one of her last five matches and lost four of her last ten as the favourite.
  2. 02Kartal is 15-7 on hard courts this season and has already won a match in Wuhan.
  3. 03The price, 1.44, is close to our 1.45 limit.
Bencic’s autumnIn Beijing she beat Anastasia Zakharova 6:1, 7:6(3) and lost to Ann Li 4:6, 3:6 on 5 October. At the US Open she lost in the first round to Yulia Putintseva. She had a bye in the first round in Wuhan.
Full match analysis